Will there be a second world economic crisis?

Read Surviving in Argentina

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

This will give you the answers on how it happens and what to do.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html
full series link
http://www.survival-preps.com/index.php?topic=89.0


will give you background and starting points.

It isn't going to be Mad Max.

 

Ask me when this one is over.

 

MelbBrad. There is no need to be scared but you do need to be on the ball. You have a 1.5 acre block. Plant some fruit trees, build yourself a chook pen ready for a time that may or may not come. Read books on growing vegetables and get yourself some gardening tools.

The way I see things at this very moment is that there are two groups of people. The first group believes that every thing will work out Ok and are just waiting to tell the other group how wrong they were being such doomers.

The other group thinks that things are going to get very bad over the next several years and they are taking steps now in case it does eventuate and they too are just waiting to tell the other group how silly they were for not heeding their advice.

I don't know which group is going to be proved right. However, I must admit that I fall into the 2nd group for I just couldn't bear to think that I had an opportunity to do something and I sat around and did nothing. If the first group is right I will be so happy that I was wrong and the world can continue to prosper.

It is a 2 horse race and you have to put your money where your mouth is . From what you have posted I think you might be in group 2 for you already have insurance of land and silver.

Any way best of luck and I hope that your decisions prove to be right.

Regards Errol43

 

A few notes to responds to the comments above....

---- Silverfunk: The collapse timeframe is impossible to predict accurately. Picture a man with a gun in his hand, with his finger on the trigger; the gun is loaded but the timing is up to him. The coming collapse will be triggered to ensure the largest possible impact - it won't just happen by accident. Expect to be terrified then things will get worse.

That said, for various technical reasons I don't think the collapse can be successfully 'hidden' beyond another 28 months. I expect it to occur before then - otherwise the risk of an 'unplanned' collapse becomes very real.

Regarding the famine, it's already underway, and prices will continue to rise as supplies dwindle worldwide - we will see double digit food inflation by July. I'm sorry to reiterate that Australia will suffer from the famine, along with everyone else. Even the USA's strategic wheat and corn supplies will run out. This is not like 'normal' wartime austerity measures - this is a global situation affecting all the major food producing countries of the world. Yes, food rationing is a way to stabilize food consumption, but it's not a 'supply' solution; it merely limits hoarding and spreads the pain.

Folks: Do not rely on any "powers that be" for much help in the coming famine. Governments will do what they can in terms of reducing taxes and duties and assisting farmers, but this famine is going to be long and severe. World reserves may *never* recover and millions of vulnerable people worldwide will die. People will be planting their back yards and front yards. I cannot stress enough that this is real and governments are not magicians and cannot afford to feed us all for years on end even if grains were available. The pollies are just very ordinary people with their own families; don't expect them to somehow 'rescue' you. In some countries the Governments can merely advise people about which weeds or grasses are edible and which are dangerous.

Hot tip: Broad beans (hey, who just said yuk?!) grow easily in many parts of Australia and supply protein and other nutrients. Start getting educated now about nutrition and food growing and storage techniques. Research "Heirloom Seeds."

---- Villiagegate: It would be nice if it was just 'famine' OR 'collapse' wouldn't it? You are right, urban farming will take off, and the price of arable land within 100km of capital cities will skyrocket. I have no doubt that many latent green thumbs will emerge as a result of the necessity.

Ironically, I also expect that people who consume the 'locally' grown food will find it to be surprisingly nutritious - containing lots of trace elements (like chromium) that are often depleted from intensively farmed soils. (During WWII the British diet was surprisingly healthy - although rationed.)

---- Slam: Keep stacking those bags. Brown rice is even more nutritious than white rice due to its vitamin B content, but rice is a wonderful food. It's also an outstanding investment in 2011 as you have already found! Keep the bags cool and away from rodents. People with evaporative air coolers beware of the high ambient humidity that these produce some paper sacks can gradually absorb this moisture. Do you homework and learn as you go.

---- MelbBrad: When I first understood these things I was scared too and found it hard to sleep! But you do have time now to come to terms with these things, and think things through. It takes time to plan and adapt yourself. Read some books.

Errol43's comments are spot on! My own advice is the same: If you want to grow your own food then get your soil tested, talk to professional farmers and experts and find out what will grow best in your area. Work out what your yields might be for different crops or animals (goats are great!), and consider their water needs; then consider how much food your family will need. Boys eat a lot don't they? But they can earn their keep during the harvest! Then get going, start small, run a few test plots, sell some silver and get some BIG water tanks and see how things go. Nothing beats experience when it comes to gardening. You can ramp up production as you become more experienced. I'm sure the flexibility you have shown in your career will not be wasted! (Can I pre-order some onions?)

---- Peter: You are correct that meat will become expensive. In fact, what usually happens is that animal feed prices go up, so meat prices go up, but when stock feeds become too expensive the herds are slaughtered and meat prices suddenly decline dramatically, but after that point meat prices go sky high again - and stay there. Meat becomes very hard to find.

And yes, when the Chinese property bubble pops Australia's ore exports will fall drastically and our economy will go (are you ready intelligencer?) full retard!

---- JulieW: Great links. I like his English! A very warm man and very practical!

---- errol43: Such a delight to read your wise and kind words to MelBrad! The precautionary principle is very apt here. In fact preparing for a famine in an inflationary economy is a fantastic investment strategy. It's a win-Bigwin situation.

 

Is all the food going to disappear next year? What aren't we in famine now then?

 

I find it difficult to believe that to be the case.

Land prices relative to income are currently massively inflated, most attention is paid to residential housing but the same can be said for land outside of the major cities. For example, a round figure for a decent block of land 700m2 within that distance from melbourne will put you back 100k. That is ridiculous! That is 1.5x median annual income of Melbourne (closer to 2x in the bush) for a small block of land that will not sustain a family.

Where is the demand going to come from to keep relative prices so high in a famine? In one of his articles Martin Armstrong quoted that farm land in Virginia (IIRC) crashed during the Great Depression, and that was during the 'dust bowl' drought. IMO land is still massively overpriced relative to other asset classes that it is not worth seriously considering the type of land you describe (particularly within a 100k budget).

You also seem to be assuming that it will be a more efficient allocation of time/capital for people to become amateur farmers instead of relying on professional farmers who produce in bulk.

I agree with many of your points but not your call on land prices. The only thing that would prop up land prices is to completely open it up to foreign ownership... I don't really like the idea of renting my own country.

 

+1 I think this is closer to the mark than most people realise.

 

oh man famines gonna happen in the next 28 months hahahahah if its gonna be that bad u should be stacking what i stack ammunition .u got poor old melbrad crappin in his jocks. I couldnt give a shit if it does happen i got weapons ammo fishin rods & survival gear know how to grow anything .1 of my bros had an organic farm for years lived in the hills with people sayin the same thing .they been sayin it for decades melbrad maybe 1 day it might happen but maybe it wont i grew up hunting & fishing & trapping always goodskills to have i agree with planting fruit trees on ur block but that wont feed u any old hand knows u can grow potatoes with a few bits of potato skin or .if ur really worried i would spend a hundred bucks on seeds that will be enough to live on for years & give ur friends some oh & dont forget to buy a big bag of SALT to cure ur meat & fish main thing is WATER !!!!!! i been in the bush enough times to know thats what u need to survive so if u dont have access to water ur land is useless or something to cart water in 2 ur property.so relax buddy buy some seeds & wait for it all to happen or not happen.

 

This is bullshit why did this have to happen in my life time. Some stock broker came over and I had to put my iPod on and block out all the shit he was saying, my parents are sinking $1m+ into US STOCKS. Their whole life savings.

I'm sinking 50k into PMs. Kind of sad that I might come out on top, I can't convince them to buy any gold or silver. it's too "RISKY and speculative" nobody I talk to will listen to me or even look at the facts that are there, why not? I'm going to be really pissed if they are left with jack and need me to tide them over, which will probably happen. Gah.

 

Don't worry your 50k will replace their mill soon enough and honour your parents even if you are smarter than them - in fact compassion is their gift to you so return it.
Everyone says 'why my lifetime - but look at the past alternatives and count what's good.

 

+1. It's their money really, if they don't take your advice then bad luck.

Our lifetime is fantastic compared to the past, we have internetz(!!!111!), we've got a decent standard of living, no real shortage of food/energy yet, no real world wars etc

I'm in the exact opposite situation as you, after showing my parents some stats they want to invest everything into PMs and I'm hesitant of not diversifying it :/

 

I have troubles convincing my parents to move their fiat into PMs. They have seen my track record, nearly 80% profit since September 2010. My mum just got an inheritance (grandma passed away). I told her to buy gold, if she wants stability. She says too me gold is way to expensive now, I'd just leave it in cash for the time being. I told her, its not gold getting more expensive, its your dollars are buying less and becoming worthless. She is holding a currency that is pegged to the USD. Theres nothing I can do to convince her, I just feel for them when SHTF and they see their wealth vapourise. The fiat mentality is really deep, it seems the FED has had control on it for so long. So many people are brainwashed and can't think logically.

I have given up, nothing I can do now.

Slam

 

Holy Dooly

 

Damien, most stockbrokers suck at picking stocks as their main interest is to make money for themselves not necessarily their clients, so your parents are going to be doing it tough. However as always a skilled stockpicker who can systematically buy stocks below intrinsic value over a 10-20 time frame will generate acceptable returns.

If they insist on investing in stocks at least do some research for them and find them a worthy value oriented fund manager or stockbroker to manage their money.

Are your parents in the U.S.? There are a few good value oriented fund managers there.

In Australia Platinum Asset Management is pretty good. Also the newly launched trident global growth fund is good. Wilson Asset Management have some well performing listed investment companies. Their one under-performing fund has recently (less than a year ago) had a change of strategy and is now likely to outperform like their other funds.
-http://www.wamfunds.com.au/home.aspx
-http://www.platinum.com.au/
-http://www.tridentinvestment.com.au/

In the U.S. you should look at:
-http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/
-http://www.sequoiafund.com/
-http://www.tweedy.com/
-http://www.formulainvesting.com/
-http://www.firsteaglefunds.com/about/
-http://www.fairholmefunds.com/
-http://www.gabelli.com/
-http://www.longleafpartners.com/
-http://www.gmo.com/
-http://www.fpafunds.com/

and of course the conglomerate (not a fund) Berkshire Hathaway.

If your parents are going to hand their money over to stockpickers, do them a favour and at least ensure they get the right ones, as good stock-pickers outperform the market over time.

 

I'm going to try and pull all the relevant bits of information/facts and concentrate it into a few pages and make them sit down and read it all. But I don't like my chances, ha ha ha. They are in AUS but stockbroker thinks that with 1:1 US Stocks are "on sale"

 

If the ensuing financial crisis once again causes a "flight to safety" into the US dollar as it has before, they may be able to make money even if their stocks drop as the US dollar strengthens one last time before collapse. Who knows? They would need to get out at precisely the right time though. Sounds risky.

 

Gold Pelican a lot of large cap U.S. have 2 factors going for them which partially protect them from U.S. dollar devaluation:

1) large international exposure. Many large cap U.S. stocks e.g. Caterpillar, Apple, Google, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Johnson and Johnson, 3M, Yum Brands, McDonalds, etc have a meaningful and increasing percentage of their revenue coming from outside the U.S.

2) Many brand name U.S. companies e.g. Coca-Cola, Pepsi, WD40, etc have a certain amount of pricing power and can to some extent increase prices in an inflationary environment.

Why do you think the FY2011 earnings per share of the S&P 500 is at record highs in U.S. dollar terms? Because the U.S. dollar has been devalued.

If you are going to invest in stocks find a good stock-picker or learn how to invest.

 

I feel sorry for you, and personally know the pain.

 

http://articles.economictimes.india...83_1_economies-food-security-local-currencies

Interesting things are happening now. Soon the world will rid itself of the evil grasp of USD. Might take a while though.