It's a Claytons debt ceiling - the ceiling you have when you don't have a ceiling (ok you have to be an Australian of a certain age to get that)
My uneducated guess: If they raise the debt ceiling - They keep spending lots and racking up more and more debit. This causes the AUD to rise in respect to the USD in both the short term (due to 'positive' market outlooks), and in the longer term (due to a devalued USD). In terms of PM's, they may take a hit in the short term (again due to 'positive' perceptions about the continued spending and tax cuts shoring up US economy and the USD) and then rise over the longer term as the devaluing becomes apparent. If they don't - fire and brimstone my friends, fire and brimstone. The AUD takes a hit against the USD due to market uncertainty and then who knows... a contracting economy in the US on the back of them still racking up more debit (after all, if the measures take effect they only reduce the size of the deficit). Any gains that they might have made due to the spending cuts and tax hikes will be wiped out by a slower economy (less tax), higher unemployment (less tax) and more people seeking benefits (more expense). As for PM's, they might see an instant rise on the back of uncertainty on the USD, after that... flip a coin, they might go down for a bit due to reduced investor demand, or they might explode up as people scramble to drop the USD. One real question I have is how will China use this situation to their advantage... if memory serves they hold a lot of T-Bonds and could potentially decide that this is the time to dump them, destroy the USD, and make their run at being the reserve currency. Just a thought. As for the Euro, as long as Germany stays strong and willing to bail the rest of them out they will continue down the path towards "Heil, mein Fuhrer!" (German ownership). Or I could be misreading the situation and Germany has no interest in taking over Europe, and is simply bailing them out as a way of keeping them out of the country (by preventing them from becoming outright refugees). Edit to add: Don't get me wrong, I believe that German ownership of the rest of Europe would (probably) be a good thing. If the rest of Europe had even half the work ethic of the Germans, or were half as efficient, I don't believe that they would be in this problem.
They will raise the debt ceiling for sure, the constant supply of money (debt) is what keeps the US (and possibly many others) going.. call it life support if you want. Its a debt based system, shut off the supply of debt and life support is switched off=chaos
This says alot right here , where Debt is almost the currency , sounds convoluted and backwards but ...
I would expect China to continue increasing their stockpile of Gold. Already, we are seeing fragmentation within the ranks of COMEX. Posted this on another forum a few days ago. Are we starting to witness the early stages of a paper & physical split in the market? How long before Shanghai overtakes the Comex? Will it get there or is there something else that is going to take place before then? A couple of things has lead me to ask the above questions. Below is a snippet from a blog I visited which was posted on the 22nd December. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum...interesting-read-today?page=10#comment-251697 =========================================================== "Harvey: The big news on Friday was the big premium for physical silver in Shanghai. While silver traded at $29.61 in USA, over in Shanghai silver was trading at $32.50 a premium of $2.89 per oz. The Chinese are willing to pay more to get the real stuff. Expect arbitrage to intensify between these two markets. Andrew Maguire (via King World News): London metals trader and silver market whistleblower Andrew Maguire reports tonight that premiums for delivery of physical silver in Shanghai today reached "unprecedented" and "ludicrous" levels, so distortive was the Western central bank intervention against the monetary metals in London and New York. Maguire says the bullion bank agents of the central banks "are fully aware of the physical drain" caused by their paper raid, "and I guarantee you that they are going long on this final stage of the selloff." (Shanghai) within the next two years is actually going to become the world hub of physical gold and silver trading. It's going to have its own fixes. So I think they [the manipulators] really pushed it a little too far today. DS: As Maguire knows, the Western banks are aware of the effects of what they are doing. Since we would have to give them the benefit of the doubt and grant that they are not suicidal, the most logical conclusion barring suicide is that the plan is coming to a conclusion. This charade will not go on for two more years, so Shanghai is not a concern." =========================================================== That is a massive arbitrage between Comex and Shangai. $2.89oz. Food for thought. Cheers markcoinoz
Early summer 2011 we saw: Debt ceiling MOON&DOOM. US Federal State bankruptcy MOON&DOOM. Japan Earthquake MOOM&DOOM. Osama Bin Laden MOON&DOOM. QE3 MOON&DOOM. Dollar hyperinflation MOOM&DOOM. Silver shortage MOON&DOOM. And some people bought, or sold, according to DOOM&MOON. We saw the same stories in 2012. The current USA Fiscal Cliff is just another in the series. However, and so far, all these MOON&DOOM's had the very same result: their effects were undone. People paid up to $50 for silver. UNDONE. People paid up to $43 for silver. UNDONE. People paid up to $1900 for gold. UNDONE. Maybe those People learnt some lessons there. I did. Luckily the rather "soft" way, I took more into account than just the MOON's and DOOM's I saw around.
What hasn't been covered much in the Oz news or the snippets of US news I can get are the taxes commencing 1st January 2013 imposed by Obamacare. There are 10 separate taxes that will immediately take effect just from that one piece of legislation. At least 2 are new taxes imposed only on medical instruments. How taxing the tools of a doctor helps anyone is anyone's guess. But that will probably help silver in some small marginal way.
zero hedge is reporting that Obamy just signed an executive order lifting a pay freeze on congress. Effectively allowing a pay rise of a billion extra simoleans. some one explain to me how this guy ISN'T the worst president in history? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...pay-increase-members-congress-federal-workers
