Do you expect gold to fall below 1,100 $ soon? Soon would mean May-summer. I am bearish for May-first half of the summer. The bulls will prolly start kickin' around July. What do you think? Will we see sub-1,100 $ gold in this period? The charts look agonizing.
It is hard to see gold sinking that low with 1. The Saudi's doing their bit for Oil and Gold. They will soon be in Yemen on the ground and that will not stop for years. Houthi will start internal spot fires in Saudi. 2. Ukraine is on a holding pattern. Fighting will escalate. It is all predetermined so it will be timed for maximum effect. 3. US/Saudi offensive to unseat Bashar in Syria will start soon with Russia opposing such steps Also I think that when the results of the second quarter start coming out in September we will have a drop in stock markets and perhaps initially a drop - even a significant drop in the price of gold before an up swing. Lets wait and see - since we are really just the puppets of the larger players
1100 is certainly a possible. However I think you will see a very strong rebound if gold even approaches 1085/1050 (same day straight back to 1100) and a year end rebound to 1300-1350. That is purely based on the fact that it would represent a 50% retracement which is (while unimportant to me) is a significant level for a portion of the financial community. All price predictions are gonad rubbing. I really loathe all the price predictions though. The bull noise price predictions were so irritatingly nonsensical in 11/12 I actually stopped reading anything to do with PMs and now the bear ones are on the verge of inducing the same effect. It does not matter a great deal unless you are in unallocated or on some form of paper and/or are acquiring at spot.
When gold was $1700-$1900 there were also such lists of arguments against something else than $2000+. A shortwhile later an entire orchest hammered its sell buttons. This story repeated at every new low. And central banks didn't even become net sellers again. Gold under $1000 appears to me an easy-to-come. Likely around the time that the now (record highs) quite nervous stock market shareholders decide to transform the paper profit to bank savings.
Can your point out some of these 50% retracements over the last 20 years for us "less" educated please? Thanks Source:
You can see them in lots of trading patterns because for some reason technical analysis has become the modern preferred bs for a lot of traders. The current *fashion* in retracement bs adds a layer of shite in the form of fibonacci retracements (that figure would be 9600 for gold). One example is silver from feburary 2008 to its low in November 2008 (20 down to 10 and then higher). You see it in a lot of the stock trades in the GFC e.g. the dow oct 2007 to half march 2009 and back up...same on Nasday, SnP etc. QED you see it in a raft of stocks naturally as well Same from 2000 to 2002 on the S&P and back up, same for the dow 2000-2002 and as a corollary in a lot of stocks. Do you need more? I'm not defending this (I think it is stupid). If you read what I wrote you will see I said it is important for a portion of the financial community. That is entirely true.
I've read a number of such how-to's, theories / methods / indicators from a century ago till now, and they all were right at a time, and wrong at another time. I've read dated lists of finance articles, current situations and their predicted continuing / future. There's a red line in them: the more one is "informed" by Gann & Whoever, the worser the outcome. The stock market and others must be the only place in the world where the error level grows with being more informed. There's clearly a reason out there for this discrepancy, and it should be an obvious one: relying on theories from others in a zero sum market dramatically decreases the chance on success.
Your Unless ... hits the nail. Theories work in a scope and a time frame. Then an event "from the outside" hammers it in the ground, leaving a crowd people with their mouths hanging open and their wallets empty.
Well said. An event "from the outside"......how we are all blinded on this one. This is one of the reasons that most analysts are wrong. It is because they don't understand the simple fact that it is the outside influences that change things.
