Will Gold drop to $1050 or $700 USD by mid 2021

Discussion in 'Gold' started by openeyes, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I know this will seem quite outrageous to some. Maybe that is my intent. I have been watching the price movements and news rhetoric combined with our own forum dialogue. I remember in 2008 when I was watching gold go down in the face of what I thought at the time was the beginning of the end (cant help but laugh at myself in hindsight - I considered buying 3kg of gold at $800 AUD oz in 2007). But down it went for about 6 months before there was a turn around and the rest is history. The high in September 2011 was huge at the time. Commentators were talking about $10k per oz gold (USD). People that are talking about similar things today.

    I see repetitions in patterns and those patterns have not played out yet. The 2008 crisis lead to a fall in gold for six months and I expect that we will see a fall in gold again during this crisis while it plays out. It has some time before it is clear how long this will last. 2 months, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months - who knows. What is clear is that we don't have a end date yet. There will be ups and downs as we have already seen. Highs and lows in emotions and also stock markets.

    Governments are flooding the markets with cash as they did in 2008. So like late 2008 through to 2011 I expect that cash will flow in part to gold. And as we have seen there is a LOT of cash being put into the market.

    Before then there will be a shortage of available cash. Governments are trying to fill that void right now but so far the continued collapse of businesses and debt failures is sponging up all that liquidity. That will mean lower gold prices. The question is how low. My two figures are the 2015 low of around $1050 USD and the 2008 low of around $700. I genuinely expect to see one of these. Silver may make $8.50 USD or thereabouts. I think Davros10 alluded to this in a post sometime ago. I couldn't see it at the time but it seems that it is possible. In that regard I think the $1050 is the more likely bottom for gold as I don't see the GSR changing that much in the next few months.

    Who shall cast the first stone?
     
  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    These things are cyclic, anyone who has been in the game knows that. We use precious metals to preserve buying power as the bubbles get too inflated so that we can liquidate and buy the bottoms, rinse and repeat. As @Ipv6Ready says, we don't need to catch the top and bottom, just slice the middle. I feel gold will hit at least $2500 USD before we start to see any signs of recovery. I would hesitate to liquidate my metals until then. If we see this start to boil over into geopolitical tensions and warfare, I wouldn't liquidate at all. Will metals fall as low as after 2011? I doubt it. Things always tend to settle higher especially with the amount of fiat they pump in. $1300 USD is a possibility one and the ride down likely if we see some of the triple digit swings we've been seeing lately.
     
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  3. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Perhaps the USD will gain strength during the Northern Hemisphere Summer but then, I'd say, it will tank during the Northern Hemisphere Winter flu season.
    Looks to me that gold in USD will drop but then come back hard.
    Silver could take a really big hit in USD.
    As for the AUD, I reckon it will tank against the USD short term (over the next 5 months) We aren't even into the flu season yet, so this thing is like a dragster doing its warm-up burn. When it takes off, it will leave a skid mark that solvol won't be able to remove.
     
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  4. raven

    raven Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Let me know when you can find a 700 $ oz of gold will ya !
    :)
     
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  5. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Food for thought that.

    Question/s I have as I wasn't into PM's back in GFC days. Were there gold and silver shortages at the retail level in 2008/9/10 like we see now (and such large premiums) and were there issues with COMEX not being able to delivery physical due to transport shortage?
     
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  6. raven

    raven Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep, all of that !
    PM kilo ag ...... going for $1,100 at the height of the bull run in 2010
     
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  7. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Apparently Russia has announced its no longer buying Gold. Whatever that's worth.
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    $700 gold but physical premium 150%. Just like silver, price only exists in paper.
     
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  9. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Someone else will have to comment on their personal experience with bullion dealers as I was not trading in PM those days sadly. However a quick search will tell you the situation was not a lot different in 2008 than it is today.

    https://www.jmbullion.com/investing.../2008-gold-silver-shortage-bullion-products/#

    The 2008 Gold & Silver Shortage of Bullion Products

    An industry wide gold and silver bullion shortage occurred during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

    It began in early September 2008 and lasted all the way into the spring of 2009. During this time the world’s largest Government Mints and Private Mints could not supply enough bullion coins and bars to meet global demand.

    In North America both online and local bullion dealers experienced product shortages and multi month delivery delays. What small silver and gold bullion inventory that was available then for sale and immediate delivery was typically priced exorbitantly high over fluctuating spot prices (large product premiums) especially when compared to more normal economic time spans.

    An often used barometer to gauge the silver bullion market’s supply tightness is 90% Silver Coin premiums. Take a look in the following chart for 90% silver coin premiums soared during this late 2008 / early 2009 time frame.

    [​IMG]


    .........................................
    More details can be found at the web address - interesting reading.
     
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  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Should this come to pass I am sure you will not be alone.
     
  11. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Another way of looking at it - perhaps this is the case, as in 2008. Maybe we're just too close to see the forest from the trees yet.
    (I'm still buying gold - very very cautiously though).

    Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 3.15.25 pm.png
     
  12. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    Will Gold drop to $1050 or $700 USD ?
    Everything is possible these days,but I don't expect gold dropping to $700 in my life time....
     
  13. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I want to buy 20k plus in gold. But I ain't paying 3k per ounce AUD. So I will just scratch my nuts and wait for the right time again.
     
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  14. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe now is the right time-we don't know now. When gold jumped from $600( we've got such times long time ago) to $1100 I wasn't eager to buy at that prize because it was very expensive.
    Someone told me that gold is expensive now($1100) but it can go even to $5000 one day-well the rest is history....
     
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  15. 316ag

    316ag Member

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  16. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Can I recommend at least buying a portion (1-2oz) so you can't say you missed out. At least you can average down with the rest later
     
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  17. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I remember Perth put in a new coin press. Lots of products suspended, lots of low mintage's for some of the Lunars because Perth was focusing on selling to their larger customers in USA, Canada, Germany and China, we in Australia had big arguments with Perth because the small investor wasn't getting looked after and as a consequence, Perth decided to allocate at least 10% of production mintage for Aussies.

    Perth makes 1oz blanks for overseas clients, that's why you see problems now for other size coins; they are focusing on 1oz and kilo silver bars to meet demand and of course they have OS clients screaming for more more more.

    Deliveries were slow, expensive and in some case wrong product sent (believe that or not)
     
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  18. 316ag

    316ag Member

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    There’s a not so delicate force on the metal market.
    The USD index is trying to move up. People are scrambling to purchase gold to protect their wealth. People are scrambling to sell gold for cash to cover their expenses.
    There’s much worse to come in the stock markets also.
    Should be quite a lot of volatility for some time. I think gold and silver will go down some more before they go up again.
    My thoughts are formed by reading Kieth Weiner from Monetary Metals and ‘what’s-his-name’ from Sunshine Profits (who’s always a downer to read).
     
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  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I remember those times.

    (Not to brag about it), but I was the first one to predict the major gold correction on this forum in 2012.
    Everyone threw stones at me, but in early 2013, they saw that I was right. Gold can correct even in the middle of "hard times".

    Yes, the governments are flooding markets with money without any backing.

    But I expect (just my opinion) that this period will be followed by higher interest rates. Eventually they will have to raise them. And, if that happens, gold will be somewhat less attractive. Imagine 5-10 % interest rates. Even 20-25 % would seem nice. Yes, NICE: because people will then be able to gain by putting their money in the banks instead of freezing their money in gold (gold doesn't bring interest).

    But we kind-of were around 1,050 $ with gold. Wasn't the bottom already in? And now we're on the racecourse "to the moon"?

    Gold might as well slam 2,000 $ this year. Corona is eroding the economies, so many industries are "on pause" right now and this will negatively affect the dollar and the euro.

    I am watching the foreign exchange trends, because that will determine the value of gold.
    I am inclined to believe that currencies will lose tremendous value in this period and gold will keep rising once there is enough supply of the physical metal.

    I think the demand is dwindled by the "congestion": too many people wanted gold and it's already sold-out, the mints are not making any more bars and coins because of the quarantine. So, people can't buy it, thus the price is "hovering".

    If the supply will keep close to zero, I think it will not be able to rise. Some loosening of the quarantine and more supply will allow people to buy, thus fueling the price to go up.

    Platinum could be a great buy right now, but it's impossible to get. Also: the premiums would be too high.
     
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  20. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    so Russia is buying gold.

    "we are not buying gold. really we're not. honest"
     
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