Will Gold Be Allowed To Go Higher To Reduce Demand?

Discussion in 'Gold' started by menotcrimex, May 7, 2013.

  1. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    As if that would work bha ha ha ha, Golds going up and thats all you need to know!

    "KWN has already confirmed through many sources the various shortages of fabricated products, namely, coins and small bars, that are appearing around the globe. I can confirm that several refiners here in Europe are running a backlog of four or more weeks on silver kilobars. They are directing most of their capacity to fabricate their high value product, gold kilobars, but there are backlogs with these too.

    We all know that the gold market consists of two distinct segments, namely, paper-gold which is a financial asset that gives you exposure to the gold price but comes with counterparty risk, and also physical gold. Because physical gold is a tangible asset, it is different from paper-gold. Physical metal, whether gold or silver, does not have counterparty risk and is therefore a safe-haven. It is money outside of the banking system as you and I have discussed before.

    But it is also important to point out, Eric, that the physical market for precious metals also has two distinct segments. These need to be looked at separately because to a certain extent they are driven by different factors. One segment is reasonably visible. This is the retail market for coins and small bars, those weighing up to a kilo, which is about 32 troy ounces.

    The shortages of these products that exist at the moment are very apparent with many dealers, mints and refiners reporting that they have no stock to sell because of demand. There are also exceptionally high premiums reported for those transactions that are being completed.

    These shortages are the result of a fabrication bottleneck. In other words, the surge by retail buyers pretty much everywhere in the world has resulted in a demand that cannot be filled. They have opened their pocketbooks to buy coins and small bars on this last takedown in prices. The fabricators who make these coins and small bars just do not have the manufacturing capacity to ramp up production quickly enough to supply the product needed to meet this heightened demand.

    The demand for coins and small bars can be significant and should not be ignored. But I am always more focused on the other part of the physical market, the largely invisible side that deals with 400-oz gold bars and 1000-oz silver bars. These bars are the global standard for banks, big institutions and hedge funds.

    Because of the huge size in which these players deal in, but also because it is these large bars that get fabricated into the coins and small bars bought by the retail market, it is the demand for these large bars that ultimately determines the direction of gold and silver prices.

    In other words, if it becomes difficult to buy large bars, whether you are a hedge fund, bank or fabricator, you know that the physical market is under stress. Although this market for large bars is not transparent, there are signs right now that the demand for large bars is exceeding supply. The demand is showing up in those few numbers that are reported.

    For example, recently COMEX settlement prices show spot gold being reported at a premium to June gold. So gold is in backwardation, but probably much steeper than COMEX prices show because settlement prices on the COMEX are massaged due to interest rate manipulation, and therefore do not reflect true market conditions for dealing.

    Another indication of the demand for large bars is the huge drawdown in the gold stock in COMEX warehouses. It is noteworthy that COMEX reports show the drawdown is largely the result of dealers removing their inventory, their working stock. When that happens, you know the availability of supply is constrained.

    What all of this means, Eric, is one thing. If the central planners want to keep the precious metals at these low prices, to meet the demand for physical metal they will need to empty more metal from central bank vaults, or borrow metal from the ETFs as some have suggested is happening. Otherwise, the central planners will have to step back and stop their intervention, thereby letting the price of gold and silver rise so that demand tapers off, bringing demand and supply of physical metal back toward some kind of balance.

    We've seen this same situation several times over the last twelve years. It is what I have been calling a "managed retreat." Despite the current weakness, I firmly believe we have again entered a critical period where the central planners will need to retreat once again in order to let the gold and silver prices climb higher."

    The full article here

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...dinary_Delays_For_Physical_Gold_&_Silver.html
     
  2. In light of recent events such as the Libor scandal I am certainly open to the concept of silver and gold price manipulation.

    The greatest mystery, and what fuels my dwindling last doubts about manipulation, is the capacity of the manipulators to keep this smoke and mirrors game going.

    They seem to have unlimited capacity to maintain what must be an immensely expensive con game.

    Surely they must be running out of resources to keep this massive Ponzi scheme afloat, but when?
    How much longer can this BS continue?
     
  3. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    At the root there are many issue's. After that It probably boils down to them getting paid as long as possible before the whole things blows up. So more expensive to their self interests to not keep the game going imho.

    Its not like they are trying to save the economy, that goose is cooked / burnt / charcoal even

    2008 was just a warm up for what's comming imo
     
  4. Slam

    Slam Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The thing is no one really knows if there really is a shortage of PMs. You just look at the graphs, it appears to be artificially held in a tight trading range, despite all the buying activity.

    I'd just wish this will blow up soon, its been long enough. Been watching this stuff for like 3 years and nothing seems to be happening.

    But then, the problem is we have too many dumb ****s in this world, if they would just wake up and convert their fiat we would be much closer to getting out of this slavery system.

    Slam

    PS: my 2oz worth, just annoyed at the moment. How many un-intelligent people we have in this world. Its not rocket science that paper is trash. Yet we/they trade this shit around as if its real value.
     
  5. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm taking the view that we are peasants and since our stacks are measured in ounces and not 400 oz investment bars - we are insignificant, provided we gradually let go of our ounces and they trickle up to the guys with the 400 oz bars.
    If we don't they'll send in the bully boys to make sure we don't 'make a mistake'.

    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e32MBv7VYVk[/youtube]
     
  6. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    I understand, not too much longer to wait for better PM prices imo
     
  7. victoryocum

    victoryocum New Member

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    No matter who drives the precious metals market and why, it's the average American who has to pay for it.
     
  8. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Is this just an American term for 'person'? Or do you mean, specifically, Americans?
     
  9. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    It's abit of a weird / contradictional question since reducing the amount sold gold implies buying more gold as to drive up the price...
     
  10. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    lol @ the line from the yank

    goes to show they really do think that they are the center of the universe
     

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