I chosed silver for a number of reasons. It's the same product as a century ago so its production has been optimized to a max efficiency so hard to decrease production cost. It's a relatively small market, the amount money in it is small compared to other markets. Better to buy something with potential than to buy something alot already have. Much like a gap in the market. A new and good product means a big growing market potential based on other peoples interest and ability to buy it. The central planning thieves sold the silver stocks they once had about empty, main reason to dig the gold option. Due to its affordable price it is consumed by industry in a bigger degree, which makes stocks depleting and new production necessary, and new production causes a closer relationship to the current general cost of production (aka inflation). Also, its industrial applications are a whole variety and in a bigger number of different products. Its more affordable price makes it more suitable as money, in all monetary roles. A precious metal pile isn't a promise like a bond or a banknote. It's like owning a bike. A precious metal doesnt perish and doesnt have high storage costs. It hasn't costs attached every now and then or even regular, like a house. It's hard to tax a non-fixedlocation and non-centraldatabased product. I don't name stacking silver / buying silver an investment. Since unlike a machine that increases production enough to pay back its cost, a silver stack produce any extra value. It sits there, doing nothing, and is the same when sold. It's not a risk due to dependence on others that may fail by consuming it instead of using it to generate more value. For the rest, it's as secure as any product, but unlike alot other products, you have to take care when buying and later selling, because there's a whole bunch money for nothing hunters that rush in and out all the time. That's why I check their numbers lol. For the rest, it's like in any market, you are dependent on others. That's what trading is. Some don't like that dependence, and try to get without give.
I said that all this blabla about the discussion instead of its subject, doesnt interest me. Remember that you started this blabla by claiming that I 'provoked an answer' of you? I gave you a sarcastic answer on that, yet you failed to get the hint. If you don't like the posting of my data and explanations, then just try to live with their presence. My post was on a public forum, not in your personal mailbox, remember?
Deal! I'll try my best to live with your posts, if you try your best to live with a little inquisitive scrutiny. That's only fair. BTW: Just for the record, I have never PM'd you, remember? :/
I appreciate discussion on the topic and the data a lot more then seeing someone taking personal shots at another forum member about whether they have a girl or how lonely they are, pretty pathetic.
Still above 23 $! And bullion sellers still apply immense premiums, selling 1 oz close to- or above 30 $.
I wonder if the premiums will eventually settle, or if the dealers will just run away with this "new normal".
To give a thought about silver price in the years to come. Premisse 1: absence of significant faster inflation (price increasings) than current. Premisse 2: production stays at the 1000 Moz annually. Premisse 3: industrial demand quite stable (it is since at least a decade). To hold a price level, it requires every year the demand absorbing the supply. The big price increase 2008->2011 was due to the tripling of coin demand and coming into existence of ETF demand. ETF's store now about 2/3 of an annual supply. Since may 2011 they didnt add much anymore, maybe 20-30 Moz. Only coin demand held its level. So to hold a $30 price level, it means that every year at least 200 Moz of the supply needs to be bought. Since 2012, this didnt happen anymore. Very likely the recent price drop was new supply that was accumulated and finally made available for sale. Without a much higher coin demand, or ETFs adding the same they added during 2008-2010 (and what if they go like they came in 2007-8-9?), this means that we'll get every year a new 200 Moz finding no buyers, until eventually miners/recyclers decrease their output. On top of that, the chance is there that ETFs sell silver they have now. Why wouldnt they? Those that hold those shares, may also realize this, and the only trigger they may need to dump, is a higher price, typically brought by the Comex futures market side (that now sits on a bottom position, so will buy back in as soon marketwide trends fit it). The first next Comex position dump will then move the price again lower. So it's quite possible that this 'sell on strength' will continue until the price reaches a level with a 'normal' supplement to production cost. Likely alot dealers that came into existence since 2008, to chew out some profit from the market growth, will have to find another job. So, as a stacker/holder, I don't see any reason anymore to pay more than the bottom we saw, $22. And maybe $20. My situation is a 100% silver worth, so I don't have a bank savings account anymore, and that silver I see as a 'sure' thing, own control, no dependencies. So I'll continue saving new wage on a bank account, and will wait for maybe $20 for a next purchase. Even if that takes a 1-3 years, and if the accumulated fiat on the bank account makes me feel uncomfortable, and silver is still not that price, I will buy something else, that I will decide then. This is not advice to do the same. Remember, Im 100% silver, if I had only a fraction silver or none at all, I'd buy today. But in the light of mine and the marketwide sitution, I dont see reason to not try a wait for maybe $20. There is thus little at stake for me. If silver price now would be a bottom never revisited or not, makes little difference in terms of my % silver worth. I think the focus should now be IShares Silver Trust. Those caused the $32>$50>$32 in 2011, and their stock is now still about half their peak, 335 Moz, 1/3 of a world annual supply. Together with the 200 Moz a year new silver, that's some serious uptrend suppressor when they start a sell on strength.
By the way, I have the COT reports data in a file since early 2011, and I wrote a script to add all net positions on the end, and the Small Traders Class has never been net short, and also never had such a low net long position as the latest COT report, only 805 net long. In other words: they've never been as bearish as in the last COT report. Their next lowest net positions were 2040 and 2163, which are the 2nd and 3rd last COT report, and 4425 on 22/05/2012 when price was $27,7. Their biggest position was net long 19722 on 02/10/2012 when price was $34,61. This draws an interesting picture about the Small Traders. Their lowest amount long positions tend to be around price bottoms. Their highest amount long positions tend to be around price peaks. Both are worst-case situations, since in order to make a profit, they should do the exact opposite, being biggest net long around price bottoms and smallest net long around price peaks. The Large Traders clearly are smarter/more informed, they took even a net short position (which is rare on the demand side) in the weeks before the $27>$22 price drop and around the bottom they changed it back in a huge week move of 10000 towards the long side; thus benefitting from an eventual price uptrend. 16/04/2013 22498 $23.41 LargeTraders Long 27416 Short 17967 Net: 9449 <- sudden back big net long 09/04/2013 17924 $27.3-$28.1-$27.89 LargeTraders Long 25463 Short 26072 Net: -609 <- net short 02/04/2013 18503 $28.15-$26.95-$27.07 LargeTraders Long 23840 Short 26337 Net: -2497 <- net short 26/03/2013 24041 $28.85-$28.63 LargeTraders Long 23480 Short 22405 Net: 1075 <- dropping net long 19/03/2013 26439 $28.70-$29.05-$28.94 LargeTraders Long 24856 Short 20841 Net: 4015 <- dropping net long 12/03/2013 29423 $28.90-$29.35-$29.19 LargeTraders Long 24088 Short 17800 Net: 6288 <- dropping net long 05/03/2013 29183 $29-$28.55-$28.69 LargeTraders Long 24575 Short 17123 Net: 7452 <- dropping net long 26/02/2013 30886 $28.70-$29.35-$29.18 LargeTraders Long 25946 Short 13361 Net: 12585 <- dropping net long 19/02/2013 37956 $30.10-$29.30-$29.46 LargeTraders Long 27296 Short 9320 Net: 17976
So many interesting replies... so far, I was more into physical, but I see Pirocco here is quite well-documented on ETF's. Silver is still holding on so strongly. 22.55 $ right now. Hardly fell a buck!
