I think there's just more sellers than buyers right now, simple supply and demand. It'll no doubt change when the buyers come back whenever that is. In the mean time I think averaging down from these levels isn't the worst idea in the world.
Hahaha, everyone here is a buyer at a price! Supply and demand have nothing to do with it. All the window dressing in the world won't change that. The paper market that sets the price is completely bogus market. Have you meet any of the people directly involved with the market, I have. He use to be a futures trader and started with coffee, he said to me that he'll never forget that the warehouse of coffee that set the market was tiny and the coffee had been sitting there for a long long time, it was all moldy and rotten. He said that it doesn't even need to exist, it's just for show. The whole market is completely rigged and it's the big boys that can make the market anyway they want. They wipe out all the trades against them by moving the market. I had that conversation maybe about 20 years ago. If you think things have changed, wrong. It is far far far worse today. The paper market doesn't even need to hold a single ounce of metal. It's all settled in paper at the end of the day and they can produce as much as they please, whilst the little guy can't. I have faith and am a buyer more than a seller at these levels, I am still turning over some metal to acquire more deals though.
For every short sale, there is someone buying the long side. Read my sig.... That's because futures are not an equivalent to physical. They represent an agreement only. However, the permabulls will unequivocally push this idea to support their own interests.
Because ( and I ahve not said it recently ) <------------------- SIDEWAYS ---------------------------------->
Geez, That's a really tired line, you sound like a high school student, I'm a little disappointed, this is easy to shoot down. For every short sale.. blah blah blah... The truth is they can take both sides of the trade and create plenty of false signals, fake depth etc. When selling overwhelms buying the price goes down. But in truth the volume on a lot of stock can be identical on days with the price moving up or down. The point here is that the "price" has no real discovery mechanism. The paper pushes that dominate market get to set the price amongst themselves and collude. It's completely a farce. Also in another thread I was accused of being a permabear, now I am a permabull? Funny. I think long term, I sold at higher prices and I've been buying lately. Hmm... your not even close to getting a label like that on me. However I do think the metals have potentially much further to run unless there is a depression. Perhaps you should read my other posts? You might like them and heaven forbid learn to see a different perspective and with better information (that's my claim). I agree the paper market is not the same as the physical market. That's my point. Back in August of 08 we saw the physical market and the paper TOTALLY decouple around the world. I know for a fact in Thailand physical silver was twice the paper market and in Australia the price now was very different to the price in 6-8 weeks as you had to wait for your metal, sometimes it took longer. The metals prices were all different around the world, a lot of people didn't trust the dealers on their paper marked "paid to be collected in approx 6 weeks" I know people where it took about 3 months to get their metal. I can bet there are people on this board who remember this! (feel free to chime in) Now let me pull up on those reigns a bit and sit you down next to the fire, here a mug of this and there's plenty of to eat. Help yourself... Whilst you're settling in... consider this... what if August 2008 was only the appetizer? I think it was potentially a warm up match to the main event and there's plenty of high quality conjecture free evidence to suggest this is the case.
The lowest USD price so far seen post 2008 was on 27 juni 2013, where the closing price was $18.73 and the lowest of the day a $18.25 visit. 2 months later, some people ordered silver when the price was $24-25, that I liked to ridiculize along a topic that declared it as the peak, to then be ridiculized in return, my duck was so called served on a plate.
Agree, the shills reporting news on the idiot box repeat this tirelessly so its the first exposure most get when attempting to understand the futures metals situation Claiming to know what is really going on is bullocks as its clear as mud but shooting down contraction points is divisive and a similar post irked me to no end a few months back.. We are all vested in metals here that's a given so completely moot point and worthless addition to the forum More ideas and proof and less childish "your wrong" posts would be far more productive I appreciate your posts milkman keep em up
The futures market mainly serves as a hedging environment, where people hedge themselves against price changes due to money for nothing clubbers' purchases and dumps. The hedging takes place along a contract with an amount dollars backing it up, coming from those that take the positions. The money one gains doesn't come from thin air, it comes from opposite position (long versus short) owners, doesn't really matter which name is sticked on it. If the spot price is moved up, the ones with short positions get dollars subtracted and the ones with long positions get those dollars added. What IS sure is that by the time of expiration (being a certain month / contract maturation), that the market arbitrators will perform steps (by buying or selling silver) to make the spot price equal to the forward price of that month. They have to, otherwise the very existence reason of the futures market, as a hedging environment, would be lost. And this makes clear that the entire blaming of the Comex / futures market is actually blaming those that the Comex futures market hedges against: the temporary buyers. Those that buy, dump, buy back in, dump, rinse and repeat. You ridiculized me for my monitoring of the Comex position, but that total net position reflects the price risk that the futures market / hedgers see. They can be wrong, but usually they are, as a whole, right. That's why the price trend shows a correlation with the Comex position trend. Of course, in the end, the price depends on the whole of the market. Not just the money for nothing club, the real speculators and the real users. And beyond this: other markets, and the world economy, as a whole. The difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis is that the former observes past and present market data, much like producers, while the latter observes peoples buy/sell behaviour, much like thieves. So the market, IS, in a part rigged, but indeed not by the Comex / paper represented purchases (or agreements, it's irrelevant since both drive the price and that's all what matters). It's rigged by the shorter term / high speed frontrunners, the parasitic drain upon the market we all depend. So if one sees a vertical in the price, no matter up or down, without apparent 'fundamental' reason (read: production, real users), it should be a think twice before following it (read: pay the higher price, or, sell at the lower price). Because doing so, then means paying them a free ride. So if you read here and there that Joe and Freddy sold, became King Cash, Got Out, well, those are who are hedged against.
You also riduculized for having to wait 2 months for the technicals. I think you are just a serial ridiculizer. :| http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-675122.html#p675122
Claiming to know what is really going on irks me too. That's why the rant that "the market is totally rigged" as an explanation of what is exactly going on, is so lame. All it does is serve to reinforce the "faith" that a long in phys is so damn right... even though the pos is losing hand-over-fist. That, to me, is childish. I respect your opinion 1for1. If stackers were to sit back, chillax, and look at the market objectively for what it is... a mere market, then it may clear a few of those confusions for some. To tell me the market behaves like it does because it is rigged tells me nothing, and is of no value to anyone but the bullion dealers.
As said before: technical analysis, and acting according to it, makes one predictable, or in other words: the one that attempts to frontrun, gets frontrunned instead. Whether that is said in a ridiculizing, handclapping, or humping fashion, doesn't change what is said. Ridiculisation based on reality versus based on a scam.
A market doesn't behave. It's a situation, and if prices fluctuate alot without production/real users reasons (in turn resulting from things beyond human power / ability), then that already proves that a market is totally rigged. That's lame nor childish, just an accurate observation. Nevertheless, instead of complaining about it, I say beat them. Don't follow the 'moods' they try to spread. A bull tries to throw his victims in the air. A bear tries to push his victims till the ground. Then they swap. Fundamental analysis is the key to beat them. Know what's going on, why, and put it in a whole. The result is a more stable price, and the bull/bears eating up eachother into the void.
