By "it," I mean the beginning of the final major up move in this PM bull market. Sure, there will be pullbacks along the way, but the general vibe I get from everything I've read/watched/listened to is that there will be "fireworks" in the metals this fall (spring for us down under). I'm looking at my one third cash position, which is probably earning a negative real return after tax and inflation, and thinking, could this really be it, should I commit some more of that cash to the shiny stuff? The other part of me says, you're just being a greedy bastard, keep that cash position in case things don't turn out the way you're expecting. At least wait until all that gold you bought in the past 12 months is in the black again. Just felt like getting that off my chest.
I'm not really sure that "this is it" .... This is certainly going to be one of the major sub-bull runs in my opinion - corresponding to the beginning of the breakup of the Eurozone. Thereafter the system may stabilize again for a while and see a pullback or stablizing of the PMs run. The end game - "it" - will be when the US dollar collapses - the granddaddy of all sh1t4brains concepts known to modern man called fiat currency. At that point if you're still in paper you'll be sitting with your d1ck in your hand :lol:
Market sentiment seems bullish for the near term like you said. I think we are in for a treat soon if QE3 is confirmed. What I do know is that there was a time last year where everyone here was scrambling to buy when the price dropped to $30-$32. When Silver is back to $38 for example, people will still be buying but they'd be wishing for $30.76. I do believe $30 is a good bottom for Silver. Not to say $25 isn't possible but we have been there and done that already. If the silver train runs as fast as it did last year, we may not see Silver in the $20s again even if we have another crash next year. I'm with the thinking that whatever price we buy at this point is most likely going to at least double within the next 18months. That's being very conservative. That's my feeling anyway. Once the attention switches back to the US, it's going to be a wild ride. I can't tell you what will happen to the POS next, because we don't know. But my feeling is $29-30 is good as a bottom as any. It's right on it's 200 day moving I believe. I can't see it getting much lower, but it's probably going to get a LOT higher. If you're already heavily invested in metals, than adding some more now (or preferably a few weeks ago) doesn't seem like such a bad idea) Summary: At the moment, the reward seems a lot greater than the risk. But if that changes next year and silver gets too parabolic, you can sell some or swap for Gold.
I saw a great chart by Alan Kohler the other night it really put's this boom into perspective. The cliff ahead looks massive i mean by the look's of things markets need to move back to 1980's level's just to go back to the trend. It shows there is possibly a little more upside in U.S markets but they seem to hit a point and retrace(This is actually forming a tripple top in charting it's bad news).
Not too sure, im putting the recent spike in both physical and pm stocks due to the sniff of qe3, but mainly the herd following Soros and Paulson. If the announcement of their change of investment didnt happen, i dont think we would be seeing such a dramatic increase. "if Soros is doing it then it must be good" I would keep the 1/3rd cash you have, or maybe let a little go to scratch the itch.
Yes!,..this is it. A major move up to around $35/oz silver is probably on the way..it may take 11 to 12 months from here to eventuate before returning to $31-32/oz.
Don't fear, I only don't sleep on the good nights. Stops take care of the rest. Was up all night Tues night nursing along a 24hr 3-bagger.
Mate you need to look at these charts in log scale, these charts dont work when taking into account the fact that s+p is measured in dollar points. It makes no sense to graph something that has a 2-4% variable year on year. There is also something called a secular bear market. There is also something called a real PE ratio, measure the last 100 years in that, thats 'price to earnings'. As price of shares go up, so do earnings, it doesnt mean that prices are ready to fall off a cliff, because the earnings support the price. Graph the S+P in euros, aussie dollars and pounds, graph it in gold buying power and you will get different results. We dont live in new york land, we live in a g-l-o-b-a-l economy. Whilke american stocks have had a 100%+ recovery in us dollar terms, they have not in other currencies. Look at our economy, chinas 300 index, all doing shit.
