I shot everything at the beginning of the year...then did a little research and should have waiting. Now I'm saving up again for my next buy which is good since it forces me to pass on all these oportunities I may have bought on too see what will happen farther down the road.
My purchase of last weekend was completely 'numismatic', being spot +50 and +100%, a decision I took based on 2 things: 1) Comex position, despite on the > 3 month period last time again going up at a given price, I've seen many occasions of the opposite this year, which makes me think $19 is a bottom on the same period. 2) The Comex depositories total amount silver, now clearly reversed, last time 176 Moz, back down from 184 mid march, and it's a drop much faster than it went up. This starts to look like the end of an uptrend that lasted over 2 years. Since the silver price went down with it, maybe the opposite indicates an at least stable price. I didn't find explanations for it so far, it's abit weird because with gold the exact opposite happened, while the Comex silver stock rose big time, golds one dropped big time. Also, on the very long term (decade) the Comex silver stock shows a correlation with the price. On any shorter term, not. So it's a mixed story, unclear. Yet, it's a change, and it means something. 3) I intended to buy again Lunar Horse kilocoins, but the cheapest (by far) dealer has just 1 in stock, so that's a no, and despite the lower price, people ceased to be willing to sell at the price they previously did sell. So that's also a no. Then I thought, in some past I bought some numismatics of the AOCS, alike John Galt coins, and the dealer from back then still had quite some in stock, proof and that finish alike the Libertads, and the price dropped with spot so that was my silver purchase, along with some other similar coins. Expensive coins, but since I like very much the design and ideas behind it (although I seem to be alone in that here haha), and Mulligan Mint doesnt exist anymore since last year, they may hold that higher price. 4) I saw so much bearish talk on this forum that it MUST be a good moment to buy haha. So see again: I planned to wait for lower, and I planned to stick to the plan, yet I just digged it, based on new and old elements. I think that is the way to buy silver: dynamically adapt to changing situations. Sticking a target price to wait for while ignoring what is happening during the wait, makes your decision outdated, and likely wrong. I may end up having bought all the way down, but only so many can buy at a lower price, and the lower, the fewer, so at some point your chance to be one of them, is nil. In a lack of better alternatives, more and more money sits waiting to buy back in, and then you typically get those upspikes and you may end up buying way higher than even your original target. I've seen it happening with people in 2011. At $32 they said they would wait for $28. Didn't came then. Price warped back up to $39-43, hovered months on $39, and they bought there at $40, receiving a 100 ouncer bar less on 3. I still hope that the price goes lower. Why would anyone that stacks want higher and receive less silver? I have no problem being in the unmaterialized red. It's something to accept, and deal with, and buying more at the lower price, is the way. I'm not greedy, if the price would be driven to $40 over the next year, I again wouldnt sell, just like I didnt in 2011, despite I was quite sure that $32>$50 spike was bound to be sold away. Over some months vacation money will add. Then I'll again have the amount I had ready now. I didn't use it all, about 3/4. I will get older, and my silver stack will get bigger with it!
My plan hatched up about 4 months ago was more of a dollar amount spent then a oz goal. I was hoping to get 500oz for $10,000 making it 20 an oz. If prices stuck around $20oz all year I would have been perfectly content with buying all 500oz at that price. 20oz seems like a relatively safe midpoint on the silver prices could go lower or could go up from there. Since I've only aquired half my goal so far these recent price fluctuations drive me crazy. Sucks thinking"If I waited 2 weeks would have saved $300" but is nice because now what I buy now would be cheaper and should balance it out. The way it tends to be happening though is I save up, Blow my load, the price drops directly after, then recovers by the time I have enough to buy again I just want to have it all in my hands to tuck away and keep safe. Once I've met my goal these little changes wont bother me, what happens happens from there. Then I'll hit my cash goal, Firearms goal, gold goal, and then possibly make it back to silver depending on how it is doing.
I guess since someone already bumped this I can chime in with current thoughts. I started actually selling off my ETF's as I break even on them with this spike up. I feel Silver still has a large downside. So I guess I'll be helping any downward push then as others might sell off on this bump up too. I'm going to hold the money and buy in at a lower price later in the year. Sure the last bottom could be the final bottom for all we know. But I feel a little more optimistic about further drops than a permanent shooting up right now. If it never goes this low again, oh well I have other places to invest. I still have all my physical and will hold that forever. And will always buy more physical on each dollar drop from my last purchase. If we see a huge drop this year I'll load up on both physical and ETF's at the much lower price. For right now though I'll sit back and watch and be patient until hopefully that buying opportunity comes again. Will be interesting to see how how this recent spike goes though. Still could have quite a bit of a bounce left. Which would be nice to deleverage and later buy in again later. As far as blowing all my money as mentioned I do calculated buys at certain price drops. And have a load of money waiting in the wings to unload at the time I feel is right. But I always buy some at each drop point because I want some silver at all times and you never know when the final last bottom is in. But get low enough and then I'll go all in. That's still a ways off I feel though.
