Hey y'all, I'm new here, long time reader first time poster...you know the drill So I've been investing in silver coins and bullion for a over a year now, and despite the price drop from about $23 when I got in last year, I'm loving the experience, especially the different semi-numis and interesting rounds from SBSB and other places around the world. I've tried doing a lot of research on gold and silver and find myself at sites like Silverdoctors, Silverseek, Finance & Liberty on youtube etc. and find it a bit conspiratorial for my tastes. For instance, Chris Duane made some great videos on the value on silver and why we should buy it, and I still believe all the reasons he outlines in that video are essentially true. Obviously everyone here believes it too. It is it's rareity and uses that make it real wealth and you can hold it in your hand, and it will never rust or inflate away. But he also makes some "silver to da moon" videos and its obvious that his motivation is to sell silver coins, so its not exactly unbiased opinion he's presenting. Aaaand the governments and central banks of the world are up to some crazy shit with all their QE money printing nonsense, so I can understand the distrust of governments and "Rothchild banking cartels". Hell, I would even describe my political view as Libertarian, someone asked me what my political affiliation was and I jokingly said "Anarchist", because I was so disillusioned with the whole political system, and I have my silver "education" to thank for opening my eyes to that. Buuut... I would like to read something about the fundamentals of Gold and Silver that don't involve the "cartel smashing down prices" and "once the manipulation ends gold and silver will sell for a bazillion dollars an ounce!!!" I want to read about real supply and demand numbers, real all-in costs for silver miners, and other fundamentals that actually effect the price of silver, regardless of whether price manipulation is real or not. And I'd like to read it from people who's motivation is not trying to sell me gold and silver. I can tell from a lot of posts mocking the "gold and silver to da moon!" mentality that sounds heads prevail here, so I wanted to know where do you guys get your silver related news from, and are you too annoyed by the conspiratorial nature of silver sites? Is it possible to be an informed silver investor without wearing a tinfoil hat? Or is your view that these sites are just presenting the truth as they see it, and the information they provide is more relevant to the price of silver than any other trivial matters like supply and demand? Look forward to hearing y'all opinions and starting some lively debate for my first post here!
Hi Berniemac. Great first post and welcome to silver stackers. I have a similar view on the various sources of information regarding precious metals, hence my username. Also I like the SBSS rounds and back story; however it all went a bit crazy and then there was a new round being pumped out every few weeks it seemed like. Let me know if you find an accurate unbiased source of information, because I am still looking! Who knows, I might even change my username to True Believer (or Blind Faith). Cheers, Agnostic
I started out consuming the permabull (silver-to-da-moon tomorrow) hype but have since moved away from those used car salesmen. Those guys almost got me believing that a dollar collapse and the ensuing end-of-times is right around the corner....but I know better today that such talk is hyperbole and nonsense. I find that SeekingAlpha.com has some writers who's views track much better to reality than the end-of-times, dollar collapse, purist stackers that I have come across. Some of the contributors on SeekingAlpha are silver and gold bulls themselves but the one's I see as most credible don't just hype gold and silver for something they are not - money (as sadly, many stackers do) and don't hype gold and silver as indispensable (which clearly they aren't). Owning some silver and gold....I am for that. Believing that silver and gold will shoot to da moon tomorrow?...count me out of that delusional club. Now watch the attack dogs come out and try to bite me for me writing an opinion that doesn't support their hyperbole. Here's a graphic I borrowed from another site...it reminds me that there's sentiment cycles which drive prices. .
========================= https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/ Explanation Thomson-Reuters for difference before and after 2013: A POSITIVE FIGURE MEANS SUPPLY A NEGATIVE FIGURE MEANS DEMAND IGNORE WHAT NAME LABELS SUGGEST Unit = million ounces / Moz Mine Production [SUPPLY] 1990 521.8 1991 510.9 1992 485.3 1993 469.5 1994 451.0 1995 479.0 1996 492.9 1997 520.4 1998 542.7 1999 557.5 2000 591.5 2001 606.8 2002 594.5 2003 597.2 2004 613.6 2005 639.7 2006 642.7 2007 661.1 2008 683.1 2009 713.8 2010 750.6 2011 754.6 2012 792.3 2013 819.6 2014 Net Hedging Supply (former Producer Hedging) (positive means it's [SUPPLY], negative means it's [DEMAND]) 1990 15.2 1991 19.0 1992 1.3 1993 26.7 1994 -9.9 1995 7.5 1996 -14.3 1997 68.1 1998 6.5 1999 -16.0 2000 -27.4 2001 18.9 2002 -24.8 2003 -21.0 2004 -2.0 2005 45.9 2006 -11.6 2007 -24.1 2008 -8.7 2009 -17.4 2010 50.4 2011 12.2 2012 -47.0 2013 -41.3 2014 TOTAL2004-2012 -3.2 RATE -0.355/YEAR Scrap [SUPPLY] 1990 124.5 1991 131.7 1992 138.5 1993 148.7 1994 152.0 1995 162.9 1996 158.4 1997 169.3 1998 193.9 1999 181.6 2000 185.6 2001 189.0 2002 197.3 2003 196.0 2004 198.6 2005 202.5 2006 206.0 2007 202.9 2008 200.7 2009 199.7 2010 225.5 2011 258.7 2012 252.6 2013 191.8 2014 Net Government Sales (positive means it's [SUPPLY], negative means it's [DEMAND]) 1990 -6.8 1991 -16.3 1992 -24.9 1993 6.0 1994 17.6 1995 25.3 1996 18.9 1997 -0.7 1998 33.5 1999 90.3 2000 60.3 2001 63.0 2002 59.2 2003 88.7 2004 29.4 2005 45.8 2006 62.1 2007 42.5 2008 30.5 2009 15.6 2010 44.2 2011 12.0 2012 7.4 2013 7.9 2014 [OUTDATED] Implied Net Disinvestment (positive means it's [SUPPLY], negative means it's [DEMAND]) 1990 46.4 1991 48.9 1992 99.2 1993 117.3 1994 143.7 1995 93.8 1996 137.4 1997 78.5 1998 47.6 1999 51.1 2000 94.7 2001 1.9 2002 24.9 2003 7.8 2004 67.9 2005 0.7 2006 24.9 2007 53.5 2008 48.1 2009 -61.9 2010 -85.3 2011 -69.3 2012 -198.3 2013 -99.7 2014 Jewelry [DEMAND] 1990 -116.2 1991 -114.8 1992 -136.8 1993 -171.8 1994 -150.7 1995 -153.6 1996 -146.4 1997 -150.6 1998 -140.6 1999 -159.8 2000 -170.6 2001 -174.3 2002 -168.9 2003 -186.8 TOTAL1997-2003 -1151.6 RATE -164.514/YEAR 2004 -187.6 > -187.1 2005 -188.4 > -187.9 2006 -176.5 > -176.0 2007 -183.8 > -183.2 2008 -179.1 > -178.2 2009 -178.7 > -177.3 2010 -192.8 > -190.6 2011 -186.5 > -183.4 2012 -185.6 > -181.4 2013 -198.8 2014 TOTAL2004-2012 -1659 RATE -184.333/YEAR [OUTDATED] Coins & Medals [DEMAND] 1990 -34.0 1991 -31.3 1992 -33.5 1993 -43.1 1994 -45.2 1995 -26.1 1996 -25.2 1997 -30.4 1998 -27.8 1999 -29.1 2000 -32.1 2001 -30.5 2002 -31.6 2003 -35.7 TOTAL1997-2003 -217.2 RATE -31.029/YEAR 2004 -42.4 2005 -40.0 2006 -39.8 2007 -39.7 2008 -65.3 2009 -78.8 2010 -99.4 2011 -118.3 2012 -92.7 TOTAL2004-2012 -616.4 RATE -68.489/YEAR Coins & Bars [DEMAND] 2004 -53.0 Bars -10.6 2005 -51.5 Bars -11.5 2006 -48.7 Bars -8.9 2007 -51.2 Bars -11.5 2008 -187.7 Bars -122.4 2009 -87.9 Bars -9.1 2010 -146.1 Bars -46.7 2011 -212.6 Bars -94.3 2012 -139.3 Bars -46.6 2013 -245.6 Bars ? Total2004-2012 Coins&Medals: -616.4 Total2004-2012 Bars: -361.6 Total2004-2013 Coins&Bars: 1223.6 Silverware [DEMAND] 1990 -68.5 1991 -76.0 1992 -70.3 1993 -83.9 1994 -73.9 1995 -83.2 1996 -113.9 1997 -117.7 1998 -114.2 1999 -108.6 2000 -96.4 2001 -106.1 2002 -83.5 2003 -85.1 TOTAL1997-2003 -711.6 RATE -101.657/YEAR 2004 -68.3 > -68.1 2005 -69.6 > -69.4 2006 -63.4 > -63.2 2007 -61.5 > -61.3 2008 -59.8 > -59.5 2009 -55.0 > -54.2 2010 -52.8 > -52.6 2011 -48.3 > -48.1 2012 -44.9 > -44.6 2013 -50.0 2014 TOTAL2004-2012 -523.6 RATE -58.178/YEAR [OUTDATED] Industrial Applications [DEMAND] 1990 -272.6 1991 -266.9 1992 -259.4 1993 -270.2 1994 -281.8 1995 -295.7 1996 -297.7 1997 -319.5 1998 -316.3 1999 -339.0 2000 -383.3 2001 -349.7 2002 -355.3 2003 -368.4 2004 -430.0 2005 -476.7 2006 -502.9 2007 -539.7 2008 -551.2 2009 -461.8 2010 -574.4 2011 -563.1 2012 -534.7 2013 -536.2 2014 Industrial Fabrication [DEMAND] 2004 -608.9 2005 -637.1 2006 -645.2 2007 -656.7 2008 -651.3 2009 -540.2 2010 -643.2 2011 -624.8 2012 -589.1 (sum of components is 586.1?) 2013 -586.6 2014 TOTAL2004-2012 -4108.1 RATE -456.455/YEAR Component Industrial Fabrication Electrical & Electronics [DEMAND] 2004 -191.8 2005 -211.1 2006 -223.1 2007 -239.8 2008 -245.5 2009 -203.1 2010 -272.6 2011 -260.6 2012 -237.0 2013 -233.9 Component Industrial Fabrication Brazing Alloys & Solders [DEMAND] 2004 -48.9 2005 -52.4 2006 -54.4 2007 -58.1 2008 -61.3 2009 -53.3 2010 -60.6 2011 -62.4 2012 -60.3 2013 -62.4 Component Industrial Fabrication Photography [DEMAND] 1990 -209.8 1991 -205.2 1992 -199.6 1993 -199.3 1994 -202.9 1995 -209.8 1996 -210.1 1997 -217.4 1998 -225.4 1999 -227.9 2000 -218.3 2001 -213.1 2002 -204.3 2003 -192.9 2004 -178.8 2005 -160.3 2006 -142.2 2007 -117.0 2008 -100.2 2009 -78.4 2010 -68.8 2011 -61.7 2012 -54.4 2013 -50.4 2014 Component Industrial Fabrication Other Industrial [DEMAND] 2004 -189.4 2005 -213.2 2006 -225.4 2007 -241.9 2008 -244.4 2009 -205.4 2010 -241.2 2011 -240.0 2012 -234.4 2013 -240.0 ============================== Total Supply - DERIVED PARAMETER (BOLD TEXT) = Mine Production + Net Government Sales + Scrap + Net Hedging Supply 2004 872.0 2005 954.1 2006 915.6 2007 887.3 2008 905.7 2009 911.7 2010 1070.7 2011 1037.6 2012 1005.3 2013 978.1 Total2004-2013: 9538.1 / 10 = 953.81 Physical Demand - DERIVED PARAMETER (BOLD TEXT) 2004 917.1 2005 945.9 2006 933.1 2007 952.3 2008 1076.7 2009 859.5 2010 1032.6 2011 1068.9 2012 954.4 2013 1081.1 Physical Surplus/Deficit - DERIVED PARAMETER (BOLD TEXT) (equals Total Supply - Physical Demand) 2004 -45.1 2005 8.2 2006 -17.5 2007 -65.0 2008 -171.0 2009 52.2 2010 38.1 2011 -31.3 2012 51.0 2013 -103.0 ETF Inventory Build (positive = DEMAND, negative = SUPPLY) 2004 0.0 2005 0.0 2006 157.8 2007 54.8 2008 101.3 2009 153.8 2010 132.6 2011 -24.0 2012 55.1 2013 1.6 Total2004-2013 633 Inventory Build (ETF + Exchange) (positive = DEMAND, negative = SUPPLY) DERIVED 2004 -20.3 2005 15.9 2006 148.8 2007 76.3 2008 94.2 2009 138.5 2010 125.2 2011 -11.8 2012 117.3 2013 10.4 Total2004-2013 694.5 Exchange Inventory Build (???) 2004 -20.3 2005 15.9 2006 -9.0 2007 21.5 2008 -7.1 2009 -15.3 2010 -7.4 2011 12.2 2012 62.2 2013 8.8 Total2004-2013 61.5 Net Balance - DERIVED PARAMETER (BOLD TEXT) (equals Physical Surplus/Deficit - ETF Inventory Build - Exchange Inventory Build) 2004 -24.8 2005 -7.7 2006 -166.3 2007 -141.3 2008 -265.2 2009 -86.3 2010 -87.1 2011 -19.4 2012 -66.3 2013 -113.3 Silver Price (Average London US$/oz) 2004 6.658 2005 7.312 2006 11.549 2007 13.384 2008 14.989 2009 14.674 2010 20.193 2011 35.119 2012 31.150 2013 23.790 ========================= VARIOUS SILVER STOCKS: Comex depositories >>> http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls Sprott Physical Silver Trust >>> http://sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx IShares Silver Trust >>> http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm ETF Securities UK >>> http://www.etfsecurities.com/institutional/uk/en-gb/products/product/etfs-physical-silver-phag-lse ETF Securities US >>> http://www.etfsecurities.com/instit...product/etfs-physical-silver-shares-sivr-arca ETF Securities Physical White Metal Basket Shares >>> http://www.etfsecurities.com/instit...-physical-white-metal-basket-shares-wite-arca Central Fund of Canada >>> http://www.centralfund.com/Nav Form.htm ZKB Silver Hedged >>> http://www.zkb.ch/etc/ml/repository.../factsheet/etf_silver_hedged_eur_pdf.File.pdf ZKB Silver >>> http://www.zkb.ch/etc/ml/repository...anlegen/factsheet/etf_silver_eur_pdf.File.pdf ========================= FUTURES MARKET (purpose = preventing losses due to people that temporary buy silver to then sell it again) (the bigger the total net position, the bigger the part of the spot price that is due to shorter term temporary buyers) (so it's NOT recommended to buy silver when the total net position is big) (this total net position typically fluctuates between 20000 and 60000) (less typical between 5000 and 75000) Futures market (friday-weekly updated/reported, shows the situation on the end of the reported tuesday): Historical Futures (and Options) >>> http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm Latest Futures and Options Combined >>> http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm Latest Futures Only >>> http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm How to calculate the total net position, unit is a contract of 5000 ounces, ex Futures Only: 02/09/2014 32295 $19.08 Supply Trader Classes: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16421 Short 39747 (finviz.com GREEN trendline Commercial Hedgers) SwapDealer Long 35963 Short 44932 GREEN (finviz.com GREEN trendline Commercial Hedgers) >>> 16421+35963-39747-44932=-32295 Demand Trader Classes: ManagedMoney Long 43145 Short 35624 (finviz.com RED trendline Large Traders) OtherReportables Long 16327 Short 4293 (finviz.com RED trendline Large Traders) SmallTraders Long 27232 Short 14492 (finviz.com BLUE trendline Small Traders) >>> 43145+16327+27232-35624-4293-14492=+32295 >>> 32295x5000=161,475,000 ounces silver. >>> So, about 161,5 Moz silver is hedged along the futures market against price changes due to temporary buyers>sellers. >>> This is about 16% of a world annual supply/demand. You can see the last 5 years of this position here: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 Under the price chart you see GREEN, RED and BLUE trendlines, these are aboves trader classes from the Comittment Of Traders Report. ========================= There is also monetary data from the central banks over the world, it's also useful in understanding what is going on / what they do and why. An example monetary inflation calculation for the US dollar: Reference point 2008 ahead of the financial crisis/US recession. Data synced with 2 days bias. BASE 2008-07-30 876.411 EXCRESNS 2008-08-01 1.875 RESBALNS 2008-08-01 10.454 RESBALREQ 2008-08-01 8.579 NetBASE (EXCRESNS method) 876.411 - 1.875 = 874.536 NetBASE (RESBALNS - RESBALREQ method) 876.411 - 10.454 + 8579 = 874.536 Offset point 2013, chosen date 2013-05-01 Data synced with 0 days bias. BASE 2013-05-01 3034.019 EXCRESNS 2013-05-01 1863.346 RESBALNS 2013-05-01 1930.723 RESBALREQ 2013-05-01 67.377 NetBASE (EXCRESNS method) 3034.019 - 1863.346 = 1170.673 NetBASE (RESBALNS - RESBALREQ method) 3034.019 - 1930.723 + 67.377 = 1170.673 NetBASE increase between 2008-08-01 and 2013-05-01: +33.86% (It's now about +50%) Average silver price of 2008: $14.9891 Adjusted average silver price of 2013 (using data upto 2013-05-01): $20.06 MONETARY BASE >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE.txt EXCESS RESERVES >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/EXCRESNS.txt (DISCONTINUED) TOTAL RESERVES >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/RESBALNS.txt REQUIRED RESERVES >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/RESBALREQ.txt CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CURRENCY.txt GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/GDP.txt M1 MONEY STOCK >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M1.txt M2 MONEY STOCK >>> http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M2.txt European Central Bank BASE >>> http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=123.ILM.M.U2.C.LT01.Z5.EUR ECB EXCESS RESERVES >>> http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=117.BSI.M.U2.N.R.LRE.X.1.A1.3000.Z01.E ECB DEPOSIT FACILITY >>> http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=ILM.W.U2.C.L022.U2.EUR ECB CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION >>> http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=117.BSI.M.U2.N.C.L10.X.1.Z5.0000.Z01.E ECB M3 MONEY STOCK >>> http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=BSI.M.U2.Y.V.M30.X.1.U2.2300.Z01.E ========================= This is my "silver news". I look at what they do instead of what they say.
And still, with all that Pirocco, it still hardly correlates with sentiment which is what drives prices. Sorry. .
Oh, Pirocco. You have done it again. Have you read "War and Peace"? Short novella by comparison but thank you.
What are you denying here? Data reflects anything, including what you name as "sentiment". [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1798_20140913_fut_chartashx.png][/imgz] Notice how the green (or red+blue) trendline goes together with the price. Not an allsayer. Just one element. But particularly big, for silver. For ex, golds equivalent only has a 50% of silvers amount hedged of total traded annually. And even gold is still high relative to some other futures markets. The higher, the bigger the correlation with the price. It's not about sentiment, it's about recognizing what all happens, in which degree, and for whatever reason. And then there is the simple logic behind stockpiling: every ounce you and me buy, will one day reappear for sale. So, the bigger the stockpile, the bigger the amount that will be sold in the future, and the more the price will be "suppressed". This logic doesn't even need a selling part, if you buy 100 pair socks now, you'll buy less in the future. So what is your "Sorry" then denying? Just a general "I don't agree" for personal/whatever purposes?
I'm not sure how to interprete you here. Does posting market data qualify to start war? Or peace? I know that some people prefer others to be uninformed (ex the sucker1 that buys high, the sucker2 that sells low and the sucker3 that does both), and I can understand that preference ofcourse. I prefer a market with no suckers in it. Because I want speculators as a whole, instead of milking eachother, avoid the milking by the legalized/protected/selectively allowed/unpunished money for nothing clubbers. About length of post, well, data is data, there is nothing to abbreviate!
It was a reference to Tolstoy's "War and Peace", often used as the benchmark for very exceptionally long pieces of text.
