Frequently I see news about comex gold inventories keep dropping lower and lower and have been dropping at a tremendous rate. I saw 1 chart showing the registered inventories in the comex warehouses at around 3,000,000 oz at the beginning at 2013, and now it stands at about 400,000 oz, and the drop has been pretty much straight down. So thats about 2,600,000 oz in about 1 year, which is about 200,000 oz drop per month since the beginning of 2013. If there is only 400,000 oz left, and its dropping at about 200,000 per month, there there is only about 2 months of registered inventory left. I used rough numbers so it could be as little as 1 month or as long as 3 months. I'm not sure exactly the difference between registered gold and total gold, but even total gold has dropped from about 11,000,000 oz at the beginning of 2013 to somewhere around 6,000,000 oz right now. So even total gold in comex warehouses only has about 1 year left before its depleted. Whats going on here? Whats the significance of all this? Any theories?
Comex will become a paper only trade arena, settlement only available in dollars, less than 5% of traders want actual gold anyway, actual gold will fall to less than 5% of current value based on that, everyone's happy
Some snapshots: 20121129 TOTAL REGISTERED 2.534.862.859 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 8.855.538.768 COMBINED TOTAL 11.390.401.627 20130404 TOTAL REGISTERED 2.955.490.379 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.317.958.831 COMBINED TOTAL 9.273.449.210 20130801 TOTAL REGISTERED 935.207.714 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.083.258.137 COMBINED TOTAL 7.018.465.851 20131002 TOTAL REGISTERED 764.652.112 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.126.789.751 COMBINED TOTAL 6.891.441.863 20131101 TOTAL REGISTERED 658.443.045 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.496.891.336 COMBINED TOTAL 7.155.334.381 20131202 TOTAL REGISTERED 655.555.607 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.592.678.989 COMBINED TOTAL 7.248.234.596 20140102 TOTAL REGISTERED 480.439.929 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 7.347.065.322 COMBINED TOTAL 7.827.505.251 20140114 TOTAL REGISTERED 370.137.237 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 7.439.106.380 COMBINED TOTAL 7.809.243.617 So actually, since the low end september 2013, it is again rising.
Obviously it is not significant................comex is not the only place on this planet to store ones gold......but it is a good place to make it look like there is a possibility of non-delivery and fleece some suckers accordingly.
The Comex stock is just a market buffer of a product. Registered is the part of the stock of whose owners made it directly available to deliver (maybe because they're happy with the current price) Eligible is the part of the stock of whose owners plan to sell within a short time but not yet (maybe because they wait for higher price). Over the long (decade) term, there is a clear relation between price trend and Comex stock trend, likely because stocks become bigger or smaller with the amount dollars/euro's/... people move in, and out. During the 3-4th week of april 2013 (mid april was the big price collapse) dropped at a very fast rate. On 15 april 2013: TOTAL REGISTERED 2.797.748.103 0.000 0.000 0.000 -7.881.598 2.789.866.505 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.316.065.817 96.450 0.000 96.450 7.881.598 6.324.043.865 COMBINED TOTAL 9.113.813.920 96.450 0.000 96.450 0.000 9.113.910.370 On 22 april 2013: TOTAL REGISTERED 2.280.400.420 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.102.653 2.281.503.073 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 6.501.509.092 0.000 198.536.285 -198.536.285 -1.102.653 6.301.870.154 COMBINED TOTAL 8.781.909.512 0.000 198.536.285 -198.536.285 0.000 8.583.373.227 On 31 april 2013: TOTAL REGISTERED 2.147.398.385 0.000 0.000 0.000 -44.243.633 2.103.154.752 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 5.981.755.850 0.000 128.163.189 -128.163.189 44.243.633 5.897.836.294 COMBINED TOTAL 8.129.154.235 0.000 128.163.189 -128.163.189 0.000 8.000.991.046 A focus on the Comex stock is also abit writing parts of stories, ETF holdings are also to take into account: - Ishares: 2012/11/29 11.390.401,627 2013/04/04 9,273,449.210 2013/04/15 6,653,361.502 2013/06/04 6,008,292.566 2014/01/16 5,188,312.739 - SPDR: <no older data> 2013/08/06 29,486,937.62 2014/01/15 25,385,022.33 About running out, in aboves common time frame 6 august+ , about 5.5 Moz / 170 tonnes gold was sold, and a couple weeks ago I calculated the rate of the ETF outflows and I got this: IShares runs out over 932 days. SPDR runs out over 959 days. Remarkably similar isn't it? At this rate, all ETF owners will have dumped their gold shares somewhere mid 2016. They probably sell it (back) to central banks, since these, after a couple decades of net selling, were net buying gold since 2011. 2011 +455 tonnes $1572 2012 +534.6 tonnes $1669 2013 +400 tonnes (a forecast somewhere Q3) $1470 Then they can switch again to selling, as to continue the price sideways and the failing inflation hedge. Until the next cycle, of course.
Eligible Silver To be eligible for storage in a CME-authorized depository, silver must be 99.9 percent pure. For the standard 5,000-ounce futures contract, the silver must be cast into bars weighing 1,000 troy ounces, give or take 6 percent. Each silver bar must be marked with its weight, purity, a serial number and the brand of the refiner. Only brands officially listed by the CME can be eligible for storage. Should a refiner deliver silver that is below standard, the metal is rejected or sold, and the refiner risks losing its authorization to warehouse silver for Comex futures. Registered Silver Eligible silver stored at a CME-authorized depository is not available for sale unless it is registered. An owner can register eligible silver deposits by having the depository issue a warrant that certifies the details of ownership. Silver warrants were once printed on paper, but were converted to electronic form in 2011. Not all eligible silver is registered for sale, but all registered silver must first be eligible. Silver owners frequently extend or withdraw registration depending on whether or not they wish to sell their holdings at current prices. From these descriptions, it seems the important one is Registered Silver. Otherwise, its not for sale, its just sitting there.
'The important'? Let's ignore Eligible? Why? Read the text you quoted. I bold tagged it. The gold has to get Eligible status before it can get Registered status. The intention to get it Eligible, means that its owners think of selling, no? Why on Earth would anyone store his gold in a Comex depository, a market place, if it wasn't to sell it? So it's more than 'just sitting there'. And the data proves it too, just keep a daily eye on http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls You see myriads of status changes, from Eligible to Registered and back. My conclusion of this is simply that Eligible/Registered serves as a cascaded stock, much like how a computer has L1>L2>RAM>HD data storage, from most accessed to least accessed. The most accessed (L1 and L2) sit on the CPU chip (Comex marketplace), the RAM on the motherboard, and the HD as a separate cableconnected device. So Eligible is much more than 'just sitting there'. It's gold that is ment to be sold, not as quickly as Registered, but still quick enough to take it into account in the near future! Aside of this, something important has to be taken into account too when judging Comex stocks in order to judge the price of the stored product: the Comex is not like a permanent big / main price driver, not as total net futures contracts and not as what is stored in its depositories. Activity Date: 1/16/2014 TOTAL REGISTERED 370.137.237 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 370.137.237 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 7.439.106.380 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.439.106.380 COMBINED TOTAL 7.809.243.617 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.809.243.617 So 370kOZ registered and 7,5Moz eligible. Now look at ETF stock trends: > ETF SPDR http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/#data 2013/08/20 29,351,950.16 2013/09/20 29,321,592.38 2013/10/17 28,470,642.88 2013/11/19 27,794,938.13 2013/12/18 26,261,552.86 2014/01/18 25,626,081.26 > ETF IShares http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/IAU.htm 2012/11/29 11.390.401,627 2013/03/08 9.863.758,707 2013/04/17 6,445,378.670 2013/05/20 6,104,838.191 2013/06/19 5,965,547.286 2013/07/18 5,730,601.008 2013/09/24 5,725,327.260 2013/10/21 5,547,430.592 2013/11/22 5,475,388.085 2013/12/17 5,363,109.753 2014/01/16 5,188,312.739 Last year these ETF's sold multitudes of the entire Comex stock, . Central banks bought since 2011 1600 Moz. Yes, NET. An annual total supply (so mined + scrapped jewelry etc) is 128 Moz. This makes clear that alot people sold gold, and central banks bought it. Then tell me, which importance does your 370 kOz Registered have relative to the dozens Moz of these 2 ETF's? Running out of gold? What can I say about this? Plain ridiculous?
pirocco i went to the link of cme you posted and i'm trying to find the 4.5 Moz you have as your signature post. Can you please explain how the numbers in the signature post and cme link dont match
I remember from my pm beginning days in 2011, that the same was claimed for silver, and one day that so called 'depleting stock' was suddenly doubled. And look at the silver stock trend since (just like gold, last 3 digits are 1/1000 ounces): DEPOSITORY PREV TOTAL RECEIVED WITHDRAWN NET CHANGE ADJUSTMENT TOTAL TODAY Activity Date: 12/15/2011 TOTAL REGISTERED 33.550.775 592.718 0 592.718 -59.453 34.084.040 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 77.598.694 273.302 36.444 236.858 59.453 77.895.005 COMBINED TOTAL 111.149.469 866.020 36.444 829.576 0 111.979.045 Activity Date: 12/14/2012 TOTAL REGISTERED 42.347.759.623 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 42.347.759.623 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 105.172.795.419 0.000 6.034.020 -6.034.020 0.000 105.166.761.399 COMBINED TOTAL 147.520.555.042 0.000 6.034.020 -6.034.020 0.000 147.514.521.022 Activity Date: 12/16/2013 TOTAL REGISTERED 52.339.198.997 0.000 5.041.100 -5.041.100 -56.474.570 52.277.683.327 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 119.060.002.297 1.133.903.890 786.243.170 347.660.720 56.474.570 119.464.137.587 COMBINED TOTAL 171.399.201.294 1.133.903.890 791.284.270 342.619.620 0.000 171.741.820.914 And as of present: Activity Date: 1/16/2014 TOTAL REGISTERED 48.343.667.620 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 48.343.667.620 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 127.997.092.901 956.071.980 187.381.391 768.690.589 0.000 128.765.783.490 COMBINED TOTAL 176.340.760.521 956.071.980 187.381.391 768.690.589 0.000 177.109.451.110 The silver price dropped (annual average $35 to $24), the Comex silver stocks increased. ETF's silver stocks still on same level. Even more than in 2011. Using the same narrow-view argument, one could claim that todays price would have been in the $35 topyear instead of the $24 bottomyear. A more interesting thing would be the answer on why this gold-silver Comex stock trend difference? And maybe related: why did silver ETF shareholders not sell, while their gold ETF buddies sold like lemmings (over half of what they had does count like that) ? I know a possible answer! The Central Banks purchases of 1600 tonnes gold. If they hadn't done that, the gold price trend would have appeared like a sissy compared to silvers price trend. See, their large stocks gold allow them to control the gold market / price, and they rather prefer those Evil Speculators to go for gold than for silver. This is how I try to draw a picture of what is happening. I don't focus like some (hello ZH ) apparently do. Instead, I try to put together as much as I can find. I don't know everything, and considering that it's free/unpaid-for data, maybe not even alot, but still way more than the Comex Registered stock part.
The numbers in my signature are unrelated to the Comex depositories stocks/inventory of this topic. The numbers represent the amount gold 'ordered' as a future contract. I sometimes name it the Comex total net position. They are based on the CTFC Commitment Of Traders Report, weekly released. See my old Mundus Argentum topic. This is the last report: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm scroll to the gold section. These are the historical ones: http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm This is how I calculate the amount gold, ex, the last COT report of 14/01/2014: 14/01/2014 45255 $1239.70 [SUPPLY SIDE] Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 101424 Short 95297 Net: 6127 SwapDealer Long 52669 Short 104051 Net: -51382 [DEMAND SIDE] ManagedMoney Long 104303 Short 76033 Net: 28270 OtherReportables Long 41554 Short 25811 Net: 15743 SmallTraders Long 37217 Short 35975 Net: 1242 The names on the left are the Trader Classes. That bold tagged number is what I calculate, it's here 45255 contracts, each 100 ounces gold, so 45255 x 100 = 4,5 Moz gold. The calculation goes like this, for each market side (supply and demand): All longs minus all shorts gives the total net position: For the SUPPLY SIDE: 101424+52669-95297-104051=-45255 contracts as total net position, so the supply side is 4,5 Moz gold SHORT. For the DEMAND SIDE: 104303+41554+37217-76033-25811-35975=+45255 contracts as total net position, so the demand side is 4,5 Moz gold LONG. Both total net positions should be equal and inverted, since every contract requires a seller and a buyer. This 45255 contracts Comex position is also available on finviz.com, under every price chart: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1 The green trend line is the SUPPLY SIDE (finviz.com Commercial Hedgers) being COT reports Trader Classes "Producer/Merchant/Processor/User" + "SwapDealer") The red trend line is DEMAND SIDE part 1 (finviz.com Large Traders) being the COT reports Trader Classes "ManagedMoney" + "OtherReportables". The blue trend line is DEMAND SIDE part 2 (finviz.com Small Traders) being the COT reports Trader Class "Nonreportable Positions" Since most of the contracts don't end in delivery of the gold (the futures market is more of a risk management environment, if you have a stock of 1000 ounces gold and you don't want to suffer from price drops, you can hedge it with 10 short positions of 100 ounces. IF the price indeed drops, your Comex short position account will accumulate dollars, that undo the less dollars (due to the dropped price) you receive for your 1000 ounces stock. Of course, IF the price rises, your Comex account will lose dollars, that undo the extra dollars (due to the risen price) you receive for your 1000 ounces stock. So you gain nor lose. If you would want to speculate abit, you could for ex hedge only 500 of your 1000 ounces stock, so that in case of a price increase, not all your profits are lost due to the short position. And vice versa, the chance on profit implies the chance on losses, in case price goes the other than the hoped for direction. The Comex depositories are merely close-to market stocks, unrelated to the Comex contracts/positions. The stockpiled gold ofcourse can be used for the few futures market positions that do end up in delivery. For the rest, alot of the gold there is just electronically labeled and relabeled, according to ownership and Registered or Eligible. It can be used to settle futures contracts, but without delivery that is just an electronic change with the gold untouched/unmoved.
Some further SILVER snapshots: Activity Date: 2/11/2014 TOTAL REGISTERED 50.773.199.886 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 131.763.400.478 COMBINED TOTAL 182.536.600.364 <- record multiyear (alltime?) peak Activity Date: 2/12/2014 <- the day this recent price uptrend of so far 10% started. TOTAL REGISTERED 48.426.746.785 TOTAL ELIGIBLE 110.213.197.466 COMBINED TOTAL 158.639.944.251 <- single day drop of 24 Moz, bringing it back to a level last seen on 08 february 2013, 1 year ago.
Shhhhhhhh! China's bought it. On the sly. Meanwhile I and Eric Sprott are buying up most of West Africa. There is no more physical gold in Comex. Or LME. Or Fort Knox for that matter, although I heard a rumour that Angela Merkel's started carrying a few Oz in her gusset. However, there is LOTS of gold in Shanghai - the only drawback But the only drawback to that is that the usual crooks are showing CN how to pull the strings, all in the cause of contriving an 'Oh dear, USD is collapsing and China's going to be the only major source of reserve currency backed by real money, ie: gold' - Forget the Russkis - they're out of the game - because China will never allow RU to become a lynchpin of World finance - Why? Because they're even bigger crooks than JPM, Rothschild, Citi, Deutsche and all their mates aren't they?!?
