What's Different...

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by Dave92029, Feb 14, 2012.

  1. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    I'm currently trying to collect all the two panda coins (2004-2012) in NGC MS69.

    I was able to acquire both the 2009 30th Anniversary (mintage 300,000); 2008 & 2007 (mintage 600,000) at less than us$ 90.

    However, when I look at the 2004 - 2006 (all mintage 600,000) the prices appear to jump up substantially (30%+) to us$120+...why?

    There doesn't appear to be any difference besides current market prices. Did something happen in between 2006 and 2007 to cause the prices to drop so much? Generally, prices follow demand, and with the same mintage I assumed that the supply of available coins would be similar, is my assumption faulty?

    Thanks
     
  2. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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  3. apples

    apples New Member

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    In part I think it boils down to the psychology of the marketplace. Not every collector is scrutinizing mintage numbers... in some minds it simply boils down to "older = more rare = more expensive" and the price is marked up accordingly.

    As another point, the panda market is still very young and erratic, leading to imbalances in pricing where some issued pieces are illogically over/under valued. As an example, I recently got 2004, 2008, and 2012 gold pandas all from the same dealer, and all at the same price, despite the fact that their mintages are all very different from one another. It just happened to be for the dealer I used, perceived demand was low(er) for the rarer issues, and I got a discount.
     
  4. heyimderrick

    heyimderrick Active Member

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    30th anniversary prices have taken a hit over the last few months. Just way too many on the market. One ebay seller has something like 80+ MS70 at buy it now at a reasonable price (I thought) and they aren't moving.

    A bit surprised you got the 2008 and 2007 under $90 though. Those along with the 2006 have been pushing $100 consistently.

    Right now, it's not even worth the expense to grade anything post 2005 unless you got the coin at spot.
     
  5. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    I don't think that I understand how to use this information. It appears to be simply an eBay search by specific categories.

    How is this data actionable? What makes the searches selected relavent?

    There are people who are working on completing "NGC Competitive Sets" that just want a specific coin in a specific grade and the price isn't as important as adding the coin to their sets. Once these people satisfy their specific needs the Market may adjust back to it's "Norm".

    I'm trying to understand what the "Norm" should be, so that I don't get in a bidding war with someone who may have deeper pockets and a greater need than me.
     
  6. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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    You asked if your assumption is faulty. It is.

    The supply of 2004-2007 pandas is less than that of later years. So the prices are higher.
     
  7. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    There are a few eBay sellers who have Buy It Now prices that are low because they have large inventories of the same coin. The coins I received are very clean, and excellent examples of MS69 or a higher grade. :)
     
  8. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    Thank you. Where can I find what the supply of the 2004-2007 actually are?

    PS I already purchased a 2004, it cost me us$126 :eek:
     
  9. mfm

    mfm New Member

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    Actually it's a good question why 1995 and 1996 are cheaper than 2009 or 2008? Or why the 2009 30 year coin is much cheaper than the regular 2009 coin (which supposedly has twice the mintage)? Or why 2007 is cheaper than 2008?

    The published mintage numbers doesn't explain it.
     
  10. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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  11. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I think you answered your own question in all honesty.

    Nothing like the OCD nature of a collector's mindset to squeeze a few more bob out of a deal for no other reason than 'because I can'.

    It's one major reason why I avoid numismatics in the first place.

    Once you're focused on the 'collecting' aspect, you start to lose perspective of the 'investment'.

    Be very wary of your rationale when you start thinking this way, you run the risk of making bad choices.
     
  12. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    It depends auspm. Collectors usually pay the highest prices for what they want. You can see it in art, vases, sculptures and of course coins.

    In being a collector and an investor at the same time, you can try and predict what collectors will flock to and buy them before they are a hit and make a profit from that.
     
  13. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    +1

    Great reply, as is the 'balls.

    Another point is that there are a lot of fishermen in the Chinese coin market, sellers trying to catch newbies who haven't done due diligence, so you'll see these erratic sales sometimes. The Chinese are masters at extracting money from you, ive experienced it firt hand (admittedly not in the coin market)!A general guide the best place to observe prices is to keep an eye on eBay completed listings and purchase a subscription to Peter Anthony's Pricepeadia.

    Have some fiat, stack your bullion and the cream are your collectibles. They are worthy of study and more the risk/reward aspect of PMs, I totally understand why people invest in them.
     
  14. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    I believe that I mentioned that I'm focusing my initial Panda collection on Two Panda Bear NGC MS69 coins. In addition to the 2004-2012 coins there is also the 1996 coin that has Two Panda Bears.

    Since the mintage figures are not available, I decided to look at the NGC Populations to look at valuations. I believe that the population for the 1996 Silver 1 oz. are:

    Large Date Small Date

    MS70 0 7

    MS69 259 432

    Based on the above data, wouldn't you expect the Small Date 1996 graded coins to sell for much less than the Large date coins? As best that I can tell from eBay the Small date sells at a larger premium than the Large Date, even though there are significantly more Small date coins available. (????)

    Besides supply, what else is driving price? Why does the Small date 1996 with more graded coins sell at a higher premium than the Large date coins?

    Ps I just ordered a Large date 1996 in NGC MS69.
     
  15. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Pricepedia feb12 prices
    1996 both LD and SD 65 in china
    SD ms69 140
    LD ms70 3100. LD in china ms69 200.
    But i normally use the ebay buy now and last auctions prices less 10 to 20% to fair value.
     
  16. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There are some estimates that would suggest that there are meant to be more 1996LDs coming online... that may be affecting the price of the SDs.

    First guy that gets a MS70 1996LD has permission to print money.
     
  17. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Im awaiting to buy 1996 and 1997 ngc 69 for 100/110 shipped. Now are buy. Now for 125/130.
    I will wait.
     
  18. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    I wish it was 125/130, some sellers are asking for 150+ which is stupid considering OMP is very cheap (under 100).

    It is the only coin I am missing from my MS69 NGC S10Y bullion panda set... but I don't care anymore lol.
     
  19. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hard to find decent quality 1996s, even in OMP... :(
     
  20. Dave92029

    Dave92029 New Member

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    Yesterday, I ordered a NGC MS69 1996SD on eBay for us$125. That completes my 10 coin collection of silver two bear Pandas.

    My ten coins averaged us$102 each (2004-2011 + 1996 LD &SD). I paid top dollar on some and others I got a good price. On average, I think I paid current market value. Looking forward to seeing the post office mail person latter this week.
     

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