What you thought of self declare success series keep reducing the mintage ?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by andrewlee10, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. andrewlee10

    andrewlee10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What you thought & impression of self declare success series keep reducing the mintage from year to year?

    For example first year mintage is 1000, second year is 800, than that 3 rd year is 500 and so on to keep reducing.

    Is this consider as success series ? Why keep reducing the mintage ?
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
  2. Bobbie

    Bobbie New Member

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    Seems to me, that if the mintage keeps reducing, perhaps the series is not as popular as the sellers want you to think and the popularity is not growing or even staying the same. Most business models would agree that stagnant growth and or no growth would not constitute a success. This is my opinion only, and others may opine on why this seems to be happening .
     
  3. DislikeFiat

    DislikeFiat New Member

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    If mintage keeps reducing with each subsequent year, then the cost to produce per unit should be higher as there are less pieces to share the fixed cost. For example, if a set of dies cost $10,000 to make and it is used to mint 100 pieces, then die cost would be $100 per piece. If mintage is reduced to say 50, then die cost per unit is $200. I am sure there are other fixed cost too like production setup cost, etc.

    If the market price per piece goes up with each subsequent year with reduced mintage, then maybe it can be considered successful and becomes key date. If market price decreases with less mintage, then it will only be a matter of time where it will no longer be feasible to produce anymore as there's no more profit to be made and may even result in loss.

    My 2 cents!
     
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  4. whay

    whay Active Member

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    Reducing mintage is only a small part of the equation. The main factor is the demand from the secondary market. No one can say that the China panda coin series is not a success even though many millions are produced each year. I prefer to think an increasing mintage is a sure indication of the success of the series and not otherwise.
     
  5. sgcoins

    sgcoins Member

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    Reducing the mintage means that lesser people are getting interested in the item, the mint is trying to sell. The Dutch mint came with a solution to prevent minting more coins then collectors want to buy, with the gold dukaat coin. People are only able to buy this coin for one month. after 30 days the coin is sold out and the mintage number is the a mouth of coins sold within those 30 days. The result is that the value of these coins is rising fast, because you can only buy them from the secondary market now. Also most of these coins are bought by collectors, so not many come up for sale.
    Meaby this is also a great idee for all other (non fiat)coin series in the world, this way you create scarcity that will boost the value of the coins. because most coins in presale go to collectors, who will not sell there coins so fast!!
     
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  6. perfulator

    perfulator Member

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    Mint to demand is interesting, but I guess that is hard to do with sponsored items that need a contract including mintage upfront. There could be the kind of Fundraising where you set a goal (which also could be a limit) to go further with the project. I guess this could work for medal minting, but the problem would be the same as with many of the traditional projects; you would basically sell only to an inner circle which is those who are lurking these forums and reading the sales pitches. If it fails to reach outside to the wider numismatic audience, the series would loose interest as owners get tired selling to each other. That's why I value the transparency of information about sales, distribution and especially show sales. Shows gather numic collectors of all categories, and I guess only few of them would know anything about our low mintage medals. So this would tell something about the general acceptance and how well a medal create excitement, based of the first physical impression of the medal, without any pumping and nice pictures. So far only Andy is providing this information, while the Lucky&Barsenault sponsorships does not (distribution of sales and shows), I wonder why.
     
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  7. Killface

    Killface Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What you have described there is exactly how crowdfunding works, with commitments taken but not paid up-front during the fundraising process. It can certainly be a transparent process, with numbers visible in real time on the crowdfunding platform.

    There are any number of crowdfunding platforms out there, but one relevant one would be QRates, which is a crowdfunded vinyl-record-pressing service. A minimum quantity is set (from 100 to 1000), at a price chosen by the seller, and if the target is reached the project goes ahead and only then is payment taken. The creator (client) can self-purchase as many or as few as they wish at cost.

    I have bought several records this way form a band I follow. They are quite a successful band (with millions of youtube views for their songs), but choose to remain independent and produce small runs of vinyl. The price is a little higher, but there is already a premium aftermarket for the things because they are genuinely rare.

    It would be interesting to see a private mint offering a similar service. The best part is there's no real risk because no goods are produced and no money changes hands until the project is fully funded.

    Re: your concern about not capturing a big enough market - what other avenues would such an approach miss? The creator could invest in any chosen quantity to offer at shows, etc.
     
  8. andrewlee10

    andrewlee10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It is interesting views. Seems major of the views are consistent.

    I did monitor the numic market for few years and withness the peak and down.

    When peak many are chasing the item to moon........ and when soft everyone are holding back and monitoring.

    I view the current market as soft market for many items (numic, luxury watch around 1-3 K, some of fast moving consumer goods).

    I do not think their cost of production has reduced significantly. However, to compete it has kept the price reducing. Is that good or bad? what is your view?
     
  9. perfulator

    perfulator Member

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    You are right, i didn't think about that. Of course the creator could invest some himself for own stock. For a sponsor he would probably need at least an approved design / contract with a mint which also include mintage and size of first batch which would be min/max in the crowdfunding project. Of course there are some initial costs in this, but overall less risky. I think this actually could work, especially in a slow market.
     
  10. DislikeFiat

    DislikeFiat New Member

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    Whether is a mint doing a coin/medal or a sponsor doing them, there must be a motivation to do them and profit is a good motivator. Do collectors don't buy Australia lunar coins knowing full well that Perth mint is making a profit? No.

    If a private individual sponsors a medal and works with a private mint and that medal is priced at a premium and yet there are buyers, there must be a reason for it. It's all about demand and supply and basic economics in my opinion.
     
  11. Coins A-Z

    Coins A-Z Active Member

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    I think it's reasonable to assume or conclude that in general if every year, the max proposed mintage goes down, then the series is probably not selling nearly as well as initially assumed by the mint or by the sponsor.
     
  12. andrewlee10

    andrewlee10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If mint hoard the items or someone get cheap or intentionally hoard the items which you will not see the real picture whether it is western mint or eastern Mints. However, times will tell.

    Example : Macao coin show panda and brass and 40 mm copper Trigo panda Malaysia coin show show up plenty of stock recently. The hoarder can be private person or the sponsor themselves. Macao coin show panda has better holding power which show up after several years. However, the Malaysia coin show panda show up after less than 1 year.

    I still have some silver and 1 pc 70 mm coppers which have white spot and water marks.
     

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