What is your Stock Market post Covid-19 Vaccine strategy

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by Ipv6Ready, Sep 1, 2020.

  1. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interested to hear about Investment strategies members are planning

    Personally I dont see a market crash going forward though few temporary corrections of 5% to 10% would likely occur but personally think it will recover rapidly and overall the market is just powering along.

    1. All the feds are pumping money into the market
    2. Vaccine is a guarantee in early 2021
    3. Mums, Dads, kids and grand parents are all keen in the market

    Looking over the horizon of the new world post-Covid and developing Hot War (China vs USA)

    1. I see Hightened opportunities in these sectors that are depressed and likely double
    • Lithium with EV revolution - Pilbara, Galaxy and plenty of others
    • Rare Earth due to national security - Lynas and Ioneer
    • Oil as people start driving again - All the majors
    2. Some sectors that need selection but some gems out there
    • Property ie shopping centres and industrial but not commercial offices - Airports, Scentre and Goodmans etc
    3. Precious Metals - Convergence divergents investers groups with different philophies seeing a place of Gold in their portfolio and acting on it.
    • Hedge against devaluation
    • SFTF love affair with physical
    • Low Interest rates
    • ETF ease of holding paper gold
    4. Stable companies that has been crushed by Covid but not recovered comparatively
    • Media companies like OOH!MEDIA and Southern Cross Media
    All companies mentioned are in my portfolio and I am looking to double the initial investment over three to five years. But some like oil I will trade in and out with high oil and back in with lower oil.

    I was lucky and basically in Cash in Jan 2020 and started moving back into stocks hard around May and am 80% in stocks, 15% paper metals and 5% cash today
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2020
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oil, gold, gas, 5G, space/aerospace, defence.

    Gas and 5G probably highest priority.
     
  3. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Any good examples of 5G exposure mate?
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not yet. The ones I've been looking at are mostly foreign companies like Nokia, Samsung, Erikson etc which aren't on the ASX. Ive just signed up to eToro to see if their international trading fees are cheaper than CMC. It's still early days for me in shares as I seek to diversify away from gold stocks.
     
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  5. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    eToro and Stake is the go.

    Interested in hearing why you are diverfying away gold?
    I personally dont see Gold hitting $3,000 but I believe $2500 is on the cards over 2021 and over the last few months increased my gold holding to 15% from 5% (I aways talked about going higher but it took Covid to make the move) but all ETF. And using it like secondary cash holdings.

    As for 5G Ericsson, Samsung, Nokia, LG and Qualcomm, if staying away from Huawei.

    Samsung and LG is iffy as their earning will be drowned out by other parts of the group unless they spin it out to dedicated subsidiaries.
    Qualcomm much like SS and LG, 5g growth would be drowned out, ie not carrier think phone
    Also stay away from Cisco 5g, doubt many carriers would even entertain the idea of using Cisco 5g hardware


    Don't know anyything about space/aerospace but defence would be interesting if the ship hasn't sailed yet
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2020
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just because it already makes up an oversized portion of my share portfolio and I've got exposure to it in both personal assets, and via my SMSF.

    I appreciate your advice there.

    I think that with the potential for governments to start spending big these sectors may well benefit so there is room for upside potential.
     
  7. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I'll leave most of mine in metals like always.
    A little in some stocks. Nothing will be much different for me except the hyperinflation that is coming.
     
  8. raven

    raven Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Semi developed acerage with freehold title.
    relatively close to running water, and historically not burnt out.
    Koondrook, Barham type area !
    :)
     
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  9. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good call, but I'm too young for that (48) when I retire I plan to buy/move to Byron Bay or other areas like it.
     
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  10. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Your not too young for that!
    Similar age to me, and I've already been here for over a decade. ;)
     
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  11. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Very luckily I enjoy the work I do, when I was 40 I had a midlife crisies, bought a convertible, cruiser and partied with younger girls, 4 months in total of long service leave plus leave of absence....

    On my return I asked my boss to work two days a week (had to take a demotion) after working for the company 15 years.

    That didnt last long... I got so bored after about 5 months of it, I was itiching to get back and luckily the person the company hired decided to leave within the year lol and I came back.

    I guess it is a peronality trait... when I take holiday, by the end I am always keen to get back lol.
     
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  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  13. mongrelmaple

    mongrelmaple Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ve been down the ETF’s rabbit hole recently, and hadn’t even thought that such an ETF was an option. Logically makes sense, but there’s hardly a benchmark history for such niche ETFs. Thanks for the link @mmm....shiney! ill have a good look at this one :)
     
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  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Stellar overperformance on the NASDAQ.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4371833-espo-gaming-boom-is-near-end

    I wonder how they're going to value this when released here? Based on the same ETF on the NASDAQ? Which suggests there could be a correction. Or at a discount to that valuation, which could mean it may be good buying. I don't have enough experience to answer that, hopefully you or someone else can point me in the right direction.
     
  15. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    I've long wanted to have a chunk of Australian banks in my SMSF, but always thought they were overvalued while watching them go higher and higher, CBA peaked at $90 around mid February. I started buying CBA in early March at $70, managed to nab a few under $55 in the insane panic mid to late March. Had the finger on the buy button yesterday morning actually when the market wobbled at open, but got greedy and decided to wait for lower prices, which never happened. There will likely be short term uncertainty and panic which will cause people to irrationally sell again and I'll be waiting.

    If you have a long term view, there is a fair amount of money to be made playing the inevitable mining cycles. If you were quick in early 2016 you could have grabbed some BHP for under $15. So my strategy here is to attempt to figure out the top (hahaha) and sell the BHP already in my SMSF and wait for the inevitable next mining bust in 2 or 3 or 4 years, whenever it comes along. Or just keep it for the dividends in the good years, I should do some math here first before selling, but I don't think we are at the top yet, although iron ore is looking pretty darn toppy and BHP makes a lot of money from iron ore.

    Post covid, or sooner, there is likely to be a lot of infrastructure built in Australia which will be good for the companies that do this. Problem is, everybody knows this, and we don't know which companies will get the contracts, so one could take an industry approach here and buy some of all of them. Unfortunately I am already heavily overweight a particular contractor that I picked up during the mining bust of 2015 / 2016 and they also do plenty of civil work, so I'm personally loath to put anymore dollars towards contractors but I would if I didn't already have them.
     
  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Anyone has any thoughts on Quantum computing? Have been watching IBM for over a year but haven't pulled the trigger. Looking at it again as it looks like it's one of the few cheap stock left. But still skeptical, as I've been reading lots of bad news from ex-IBMers. Also, afraid it will end up like Intel.

    But if quantum computing does became reality, IBM will be one of the very few companies that can make a business out of it as they are still in the mainframe hardware business, provided they don't screw it up. As for the rest such as Google, they are really more in the "service" or "software" business.
     
  17. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Quantum computer are reality today and the future is bright

    However I doubt there will be stock price boom for quatum computer makers for few decades if ever.

    Just like Supercomputers Quantum computers are specialised hardware using dedicated software to do one thing well (the one thing is upto the owner/designer/manufacturer) and government agencies, multinationals and research institutions are only market.

    Financially it will be a price bump for the largest makers.

    There will come a time but another way of looking at the timeline when do you think windows and office will be available for it
     
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  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Speculation is one area that I seldom get it right, I usually only consider the intrinsic aspect. The day for QC may actually come quicker than we can imagine. It's only a matter of allocating resources. The last 10 years, innovation has been on the cellphone and the cloud.

    Next 10 years, it will be on QC and AI. For AI to really work, computing power must increase exponentially. Another area that I believe will boost QC is cybersecurity. Currently, encryption is done by semiconductor chips. With QC of a 1,000,000 qubit by 2030 (only 1000 qubit can crack bitcoin), all encryption today that can be done using the semiconductors will be cracked by QC so maybe encryption must be done by another QC??

    If all HTTPS traffic can be cracked by powerful QCs, what will happen to the cloud? We may return to the days of closed networks where company servers will need to be located on private networks and isolated from the Internet by firewall. So there will be opportunities for companies that build private networks, fiber optics and software.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2021
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  19. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Before hackers can get their hands on a useful quantum computer, the custodians aka multinationals and research institutions will have made changes. In this instance it is guaranteed because......

    ....in theory the custodians will have a multi generational technological head start and how many hackers has touched a basic quantum computer today.... maybe zero

    Furthermore no hacker does everything from ground up..... even the best hackers have to use an operating system, likely Linux and other programing tools designed by someone else. The current quantum computers don't come with an operating system as such, onoy something like UEFI for modern computers. Ie start up computer today and you see an oem logo like DELL before the OS like Windows start

    Why because the organistions who buy quantum computers write thier own OS source code. Eventually this will change but its the same old adage what comes first the chicken or the egg
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2021
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Initiated a position in IBM. Will make a couple buys next few months to average out. I think mainframes will be making a come back. Way easier to secure an in-house mainframe than to protect 1000 servers and applications strewn across 100 public cloud with infinite vulnerabilities and backdoors.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021

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