At first this question seemed simple. So I had a look at the gold chart and saw the peaks and dips and decided that the correct price of gold without the hype and with the problems was roughly the dips. Then I decided to draw ugly lines all over it and colour the various problems differently. I found the chart very interesting. Especially how some lines can be very straight over a number of years. Some of the lines make sense, like the subprime/GFC is ongoing and so it makes sense it would set a solid base. Other I dont understand, why should peaks care about lines? Or is it just an illusion, us finding straight lines in randomness. The chart is a mess because I was not intending to show it publicly but it turned out rather interesting... from: 24hgold.com So the dramatic change seemed to start when there were concerns with Iran and nukes. This concern started to wane when the US subprime crisis started. For this reason I can't determine what the gold price would have returned to if the nuclear concern was removed. The subprime/banking/GFC crisis led to large bubbles and falls back to a rather regular baseline. Later the Europe sovereign crisis seemed to add to the price a small amount but not really change the angle of the price increase. I would appreciate criticism, I am sure I am making unfounded assumptions somewhere.