This fellow is usually accurate in my readings. He supports his arguments with previous commentaries and believable theories. Well worth a read and a subscription (free). summarised
I guess the author doesn't want to consider that most countries don't want to have the reserve currency as it means you have to run a trade deficit. That is why the replacement reserve currency will likely be the SDR. Since gold usually runs inverse to the USD, what exactly is the author going to tell us that we do not already know? The USD will continue upwards in 2015 and commodities will continue downwards.
He, or she, is another myopic analyst that fails to see that we live in a globe, not the USA. The movement in the U.S. dollar is being significantly affected from overseas capital movement. Problems are bigger elsewhere and regardless of the debt....at this point in time....the U.S. is numero uno for the placement of significant sums of capital. The U.S. debt problem will rise in time but it will be after the collapse of the euro and the resetting of the euro countries and Japan. Only then will the attention turn to the U.S.
The next major cycle is US dollar down / Euro up. Simply because that's what central banks do: work together, weaken a too strong one, strengthen a too weak one, as to constraint speculation within an allowed zone. That's what they also did in history, only along... less modern ways, making coordination harder and giving speculation a chance to bring one in trouble.
Assuming the Euro still exists at the time of the next turnaround. The real question is, what is the period of the cycles? How long before the current trend reverses? A year? A decade?
Lots of questions, but I believe the Swiss decoupling of the Euro is significant. Will they cop any short term grief from this move in order to be ready for a possible collapse of the Euro? Until there is a new German Mark, then the Swiss Franc will be the default European currency.
