So, what are we all suspecting is going to happen regarding QE3 on thurs/fri? A lot of technical stuff that I have read is saying YES! There will be QE3. But it's the same sort of things I was reading in June, and march, so I just don't fully trust what I read anymore. My gut says that further QE would be poison for obamas re-election and that might hold off QE3 till after November. But then again, my gut does make wrong calls sometimes. But I'll go against popular opinion and say no QE3 this week.
Think this is the time line FWIW, No QE3 IMHO. This week feels like a setup. But as always have contingency plans either way. Hope it is not a bad news good news announcement :|
There's nothing else for it. It really doesn't matter what we think. Whether it's Money Printing, Quantitative Easing, whatever one wishes to call it, it will be done - by whatever name. Just look at what Draghi's doing over in Europe. What is it now? What does it matter. It all amounts to the same. It's now all about debasement - debase, debase, debase. They are attempting to inflate away their debts, and desperately trying to avoid deflation. Purchasing power will be utterly destroyed. Currencies will be essentially worthless. When interest rates begin to rise, the game will be over. Gold will return to its former glory. Hopefully, politicians, bankers - the architects of this largesse - will be burned at the stake. Forget about your normalcy bias, if things continue as they are, the day of reckoning, the day of judgement, will be closer at hand. Why else would various US federal and state departments be purchasing tonnes of ammo? They know what's coming. Gold will have its day, silver will have its day, but the going will be less than smooth and potentially extremely ugly. Now all we need is an October Surprise. Hmmmmm - another 9/11?
From FT Money Supply Blog 12/9: http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2012/09/12/what-to-expect-from-the-fed-september-2012/ "No matter what the Fed announces tomorrow, if it makes no breakthrough on its policy framework, and simply announces a change of the forecast date or a lump of QE, I will be disappointed. I suspect in time the market will be disappointed too. On the other hand, if the Fed successfully ties its policy actions to the state of the economy it will be a dramatic step forward answering a big part of Michael Woodford's Jackson Hole critique and putting the Fed in the unusual position of global central banking innovator. My guess is that there will be an open-ended programme of QE: nobody wants to do another $600bn lump so I expect they will hash out an economic condition. I'm less sure about the rate forecast. Either way, tomorrow is going to be exciting." From MetalFirst: http://www.metalfirst.com/news/4b0f81d8a2ffa557429066320420621d.html "If we do see a QE3 announcement, gold is likely to race through $1,800 an ounce," said Chen Min, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. "But we also need to realize that the marginal effect of quantitative easing will diminish and it will be too optimistic to expect gold to break above $1,850 even if QE3 is announced."
They are gonna have to make this one the mother of QE's as who wants it to be just the line up for QE4. Make this one the final QE of unlimited funds then they can say this time it's fixed. QE1 fooled most as a solution, QE2 fooled some, there is no more fooling now; http://youtu.be/KjmjqlOPd6A
Depends on which result they're actually after. Hinting gets some results - it boosts wall street and gold, but not jobs. Although standard QE hasn't solved their jobs problem either.
