People, Based on the analysis of the Gold price chart below, do you think this week is a good timing to buy some Gold ? Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/ Because it is before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday 21st September 2016 Any comments and suggestion would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
Technically any week is an opportunity to buy gold....or sell it. So long as there is a market functioning there is opportunity. Whether it's a wise time to buy or sell gold is probably more the point. I like the look of the gold chart and it's going to come down to both the FOMC and BOJ this week so we could be in for a double-whammy either way and therefore I am expecting some potentially high volatility in a broad range of markets. I'm very seriously considering buying some kind of leveraged gold instrument this week though. Probably options on a gold miner like Newcrest. If it moves against me then I'll want the protection of a stop loss or something. Ideally I'd like to see gold touch down to 1303 USD again on Wednesday morning AEST and one more good sell off of the Aussie gold miners (maybe Newcrest back at 21.00?). That would give me both the right timing and a good support level to buy from.
An article talking about the double whammy I mentioned (no I did not copy that term from them, I swear!) :- http://www.marketslant.com/articles/boj-and-fomc-get-ready-pull-triggers-which-way-0 Very interesting scenario discussed about possible Japan QE offsetting Fed rate rise. We know these central banksters work in cahoots, but that is one scenario I hadn't really considered. BTW - I still think it doesn't work. Markets get slammed if Fed rises IMHO, regardless of what Japan and EU does.
I've gone long on Newcrest this morning with underlying price of NCM shares at 21.47 Didn't quite get the price target I was after but the timing is right for a play on the central bank outcomes. I'm looking for BOJ to cut further negative and/or a moderate stimulus. FOMC to keep rates on hold. From a technical perspective I think the flag formation in conjunction with a touch of the support trend line coming off the December low is significantly bullish for a calculated risk and Newcrest is one of the safer leveraged gold plays going so I've effectively got leverage on top of leverage If I'm wrong I expect to get stopped out when our market opens tomorrow. Price targets for me over the next week or 2 are gold up to $1340 USD and NCM up to $23.00 where they will test the flag formation resistance trend line.
Hi BuggedOut, Do you mean testing the resistance line as below graph: Hopefully tomorrow we see some good news on the chart
Yes. The line from B -> D is the resistance line for my Flag. On that diagram it is labelled a Descending Triangle (which is actually often a bearish indicator) though I think it is an error to draw A -> C -> E as a horizontal support. On the right in green it labels $1342.18 as the target - very similar target to mine. If we get good news tonite (stimulus & no rate cut) then I'd hope for a rally up to that line over the next week or two. From there I would assess whether it is likely to break through resistance or not, but I don't like to get ahead of myself because if we get a rate rise tonite then gold could well fall through the floor. One day at a time....
So far so good. BOJ has come to the party and we have some nice price action in gold tonite. Already up to $1328 USD. Now we just need the Fed to hold rates and there should be some nice follow through with upward momentum now on our side. Time for bed. Sweet dreams all
Fed holds and short term momentum continues to build. Up to $1338 USD and almost hitting the target overnite. From the size and strength of the move it looks like we might take out that resistance line and be ready for another leg up. I'm seriously considering converting my leveraged stop-loss position into something more substantial that I can hold longer term. Needless to say, it should be a pretty good day for Australian gold stocks on the ASX. PS - Silver did even better and is close to a key level now. It may even take over from gold and lead PMs on the next leg up. DYOR
Agreed. If it can get through that resistance line then it'll make a decent surge I reckon. We should find out fairly soon since we almost hit it overnite! I've converted my leveraged position into some actual shares now to hold for the medium term (NCM, NST, RRL & EVN). I'm well stocked up now on what might have been the last great buying opportunity of the year
Last night the target was hit as gold spiked up to $1344 and bounced convincingly off the Flag formations resistance line. A lot of technical analysts will be seeing that price action as a signal for retracement of the post-FOMC/BOJ gains this week though I am optimistic that improved fundamentals may push gold back up to re-test that resistance and hopefully break through. An example perhaps of fundamentals overriding technicals.... Looking for a potential Friday night smack-up to do the job (as we have seen frequently in recent times) and then I'll be having a very good weekend!
A smack up would add some spice to a rather dull week. But it still feels a bit like a cock tease before the main event. Who knows when that will eventuate.
I guess this week is the good opportunity to buy Gold since it is now AUD $ 1728 as at today 28/09/2016.
I guess you are right mate. It depends on the goal, if we buy for insurance against the uncertain economic future, then it is the good time to buy this week or now
Yes, that does make sense, so once it is hitting under USD $ 1220 like in the chart below, it is the right time to buy before it is bouncing back up again to the USD $ 1300 level.
