The price risk evolution, as seen by hedgers.

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Pirocco, Jun 21, 2014.

  1. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, the price increase isn't really seen as a lasting one, since they hedge against it.
    The futures markets total net position serves as a hedge indicator.
    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm
    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

    17/06/2014 22838 $19.640 <- a total net position of 22838 x 5000 ounces, price that day end $19.64
    FUTURES 22838
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17292 Short 39921 Net: -22629
    SwapDealer Long 36705 Short 36914 Net: -209
    ManagedMoney Long 36380 Short 30142 Net: 6238
    OtherReportables Long 11953 Short 4854 Net: 7099
    SmallTraders Long 24007 Short 14506 Net: 9501
    FUTURES+OPTIONS 22393-22391
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 22640 Short 42768 Net: -20128
    SwapDealer Long 36761 Short 39026 Net: -2265
    ManagedMoney Long 34632 Short 29498 Net: 5134
    OtherReportables Long 11783 Short 4515 Net: 7268
    SmallTraders Long 25676 Short 15687 Net: 9989

    10/06/2014 14322 $19.210
    FUTURES 14322
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16368 Short 38078 Net: -21710
    SwapDealer Long 40466 Short 33078 Net: 7388
    ManagedMoney Long 35455 Short 39270 Net: -3815
    OtherReportables Long 13137 Short 5216 Net: 7921
    SmallTraders Long 25014 Short 14798 Net: 10216
    FUTURES+OPTIONS 12078
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 21435 Short 41072 Net: -19637
    SwapDealer Long 41727 Short 34168 Net: 7559
    ManagedMoney Long 33178 Short 39301 Net: -6123
    OtherReportables Long 12795 Short 5023 Net: 7772
    SmallTraders Long 26277 Short 15849 Net: 10428

    03/06/2014 9640 $18.780
    FUTURES 9640
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16409 Short 36740 Net: -20331
    SwapDealer Long 42374 Short 31683 Net: 10691
    ManagedMoney Long 35166 Short 42804 Net: -7638
    OtherReportables Long 14612 Short 6208 Net: 8404
    SmallTraders Long 25023 Short 16149 Net: 8874
    FUTURES+OPTIONS 6750-6751
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 21498 Short 39916 Net: -18418
    SwapDealer Long 44320 Short 32652 Net: 11668
    ManagedMoney Long 32331 Short 42933 Net: -10602
    OtherReportables Long 14329 Short 6051 Net: 8278
    SmallTraders Long 26231 Short 17156 Net: 9075

    27/05/2014 14230 $19.08
    20/05/2014 17597 $19.44
    06/05/2014 20349 $19.64 <- exact same price as 17/06/2014, while position 22838-20349=2489 less, so the current one is "worser", they see more price risk. In other words: 12,445 Moz more (the relative matters of course) silver has been sold since.
    28/01/2014 21033 $19.59
    31/12/2013 24772 $19.435
    06/08/2013 10300 $19.43
    02/07/2013 7769 $19.44

    So stackers, beware of to da moons! Even if it goes to $2000, if it falls back the next day to $20 then da moon was as irrelevant as the color of your pants. Alot of us saw $50 on their screen, but how many saw it on their orders? :D
     

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