Yes but: does it fit in your time frame? what if something unforeseen forces you to sell at the bottom of the market? its increased over say 10years but has it increased in buying power compared to the dollars used for the initial investment? Or simply has it beat inflation? That's only if that statement were correct, but I don't believe it is....anyone had a look at the market for pet rocks lately?
Fiat is always printed. The value of fiat declines over time. The amount of fiat to purchase increases. Prices rise relative to fiat value. Back in the 1970's I had the thought to fill a garage with gardening tools - spades, rakes etc since they were getting so expensive (a quarter of my weekly spend at the time for a decent tiller) my presumption was that over the years they'd increase in price. I didn't do it of course and so the rise of China didn't matter.
There is a saying "What goes up must come down" Apples or markets it makes little difference, the key is the timing.
Yep, I'm well aware that "gains" are often marginally more than inflation, but hey, isn't that the game for us plebs? I don't expect to profit anymore, I just want to retain my purchasing power!
Source:http://mathspig.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/mathspig3aa_tmp1.jpg?w=450 Human sentiment makes it hard to take really long term views. I remember getting very nervous during the GFC and selling off the banks in the family p/f. Five years later, how smart was that? Also they were paying huge franked yields that didn't miss abeat all along the path to capital recovery. Yucko.
