Hello Stackers, Was reading the interesting thread " The Correction by ajentjay " http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-196736.html#p196736 and was gonna post a graph that shows 3 rates of increase in the price of silver and their 'sustainability' but than realised that the guys have started an interesting court case over there, and being the visionary that i am i have a feeling that its going to be a looong court case and that thread will take on a similar appearance as our " Midnight to 6am - Overnight Spot Watchers Spot... by Turk ", where they are still on a pirate voyage - and its been months Anyways 1 Year SPOT SILVER graph from Kitco A So, from around end of January 2011 - start of May ( 3 Full months - 90 days ) $27 - $48 B from the postcorrection Low - Now ( around 10th May - 04 Sep - 116 days roughly ) $36 - $43 C from around end of January 2011 - Now ( around 216 days roughly ) $27 - $43 So Rate of Increase in SPOT during above periods - roughly A : (77%/90 days) * 365 days = 310% per year B : (19%/116 days ) * 365 days = 60% per year C : (59%/216 days ) * 365 days = 100 % per year So by comparing the rates of growth and confining oneself to only the price history of 1 year - there are no corrections looming. If it does correct, thats ok, the unlevered buyers will continue to buy and take possession - till next run.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5TXyJlEMc[/youtube] Couldn't resist - Scottish Pirate Metal at its finest...
Silver is a really hard one to pick, because it has such a industrial component there's allot more factors than gold. I suspect the silver market has been in consolidation but it has been in consolidation nowhere near as long as gold was before it recently took off. While i am bullish on Silver and still hold a significant investment in the metal im very unsure about the immediate future. I did previously believe a collapse in markets would see a sharp sell-off in silver but viewing recent corrections in markets i saw silver as a metal that fell but was more defensive than other commodity's. I do believe however that the USD is in for a big rally that will cause quite a correction in Gold/silver but i do not expect it to be anything like 2008 when we saw a sell-off in both. I suspect gold/silver to sell-off initially abit but then i expect both gold/silver to start rallying with the USD at the same time. As many stackers here would know a rally in the USD could be hugely beneficial to silver/gold when priced in AUD. I suspect another spike in the metals previously seen in 2010 when the USD last rallied.
I like this very much, but suspect there might be a small problem with rates B and C. The lines look similar but the rates quoted are fairly divergent. Nevertheless, I agree with your conclusions - and remember - we are entering the strongest growth period of the year right now! It WILL be good!
I noticed this too, and even more-so, B has a steeper gradient upwards than C yet C is more year-to-year?
