We are only 12 months away from some of the biggest changes in the Oz economy for nearly 70 years. When the biggest 3 brands in Oz close there factories what exactly is going to happen? I see a major spike in un employment and a big draw on government newstart payments. Could even effect property prices in the local areas surrounding the factories? What are other stackers veiws on this very big problem???
None of them rank in Australia's biggest, most desirable, or most trusted brands. So to claim the 3 biggest brands is sensationism at best. None the less, it probably wont make a pinch of shyte difference - just like it didn't when Mitsubishi and Nissan closed. Besides, no one has been buying the locally produced crap (except for government fleets and V8 supercar bogans ), so most wont miss them anyway. Most car sales here are of the imported kind. Just as it was with the closures of Newcastle steelworks, Rosella, Darrel Lea, Pacific Brands, Golden circle etc etc., and just as it will be with the closure of BP & Caltex refineries, people will forget about it after a short while. But the unions will soldier on, doing their best to wreak more havoc on whatever is left.
O.k maybe it wont be that big of a deal but I do think the unemployment rate will spike upwards for a couple of years until all the workers find new jobs. Plus there is all the parts suppliers that are going to shut down also so that will mean even more jobs. I dont think anyone really knows what will happen until it actually does happen. Luckily its not too far away so we can get it over and done with and move on from it.
Some numbers will help to put the situation into context. From my quick research: Direct - Direct employment = ~16,000 - Toyota, GMH and Ford dominate, comprising ~88 per cent with the remaining ~12% in truck and other automobile manufacturing. -> Hence, direct job losses of ~14-15,000 are to be expected. - Direct Government subsidies are ~$500m per year. Indirect includes 5% import tariff (except on countries with free trade agreements). - Production ~225,000 vehicles (implying an average direct subsidy of $2,222 per vehicle). Indirect - According to IBISWorld: The automotive parts and accessories manufacturing sector in Australia employs more than 14,000 people in 850 businesses and is expected to have total revenue of nearly $5.5 billion in 201213. Parts manufacturers rely heavily on motor vehicle manufacturers, who account for 59 per cent of revenue. Parts dealers account for a further 28 per cent of revenue, while exports make up 13 per cent." -Parts manufacturers are geographically concentrated around Melbourne and Adelaide to be closer to the vehicle manufacturers. -> Total people impacted in the supply chain is therefore somewhere around 30,000 people. This is equal to approximately 0.25 per cent of the labour force (ie a quarter of a per cent). Historically been declining - Employment in the automotive sector in total peaked in around 200405, with ~28,500 direct employees and with nearly 78,000 people involved in the industry as a whole. - Hence, over the past decade we have seen a greater total loss in automotive manufacturing related employment than the expected decline over the next 2-3 years. - To understand the upcoming impact, I therefore suggest looking at the past impacts (eg high unemployment rate in Elizabeth/North Adelaide etc). - I'd expect that in the automotive industry intensive states of Victoria and South Australia, especially in Melbourne and Adelaide, the effects of the looming industry shut down will be the most severe. Certain regions, like Dandenong and North Adelaide, would be expected to have even greater impacts than the state impacts. - Nationally, we are talking about an initial unemployment shock of ~0.25 percentage points (ie all else equal, unemployment nationally could increase from, say, 6% to 6.25%). - Most of these workers are skilled workers who should be able to either find/create new jobs or retrain and find/create new jobs. The saving of direct assistance of $500m (or ~$16-17,000 per worker per year) can initially be put toward aiding the transition of these workers.
The thing is that they aren't evenly distributed through australia either geographically or economically. Adelaide's northern suburbs could lose the sub corp jobs and the Holden jobs at about the same time. You can bet it will be felt here even if it's not going to impact the economy at large in a big way.
Its easy to blame the unions regardless that these car companies have been playing "bank" by financing their autos. Bad loans are weighing down the balance sheets, but yeah its the greedy union workers. Workers who have lost thousands of jobs through attrition due to robots replacing their retiring brothers jobs. The technology taking their jobs requires no heath care, raises, lunch breaks, ect. This is additional profit for the companies and the leftover work is dumped on the remaining human workers that must continue to fight for a decent living. FuCkin Greedy Ba$tards those union guys are.
I'm pro union, even the corrupt excesses of the CFMEU pale into insignificance compared to the uncontained excesses of big business. The pity is that greed has corrupted the union ideal.
Thank goodness Holden is finally leaving Australia. The pain is over and no longer will ordinary Australian taxpayers and small business people have to pay to keep Holden going. Yes, unions are crying ''What about the poor workers!'' Poor workers? These are privileged workers. The base rate for Holden production workers is about $80,000 a year. Add to that overtime and bonuses and Holden workers' pay is well over $100,000. That compares with Australians working on modern awards whose base pay is in the $40,000 a year range. But here's the sting that's hurt average Australians for a long time. Over the past 12 years, Holden has received $2.2 billion in taxpayers' money. This means that taxpayers have been paying about $48,000 a year per Holden worker. Advertisement Effectively every butcher, baker, coffee shop worker and hairdresser have been paying taxes that are paid directly to Holden workers. Yet unions scream about ''social justice and equality''. Where's the social justice in this? It's struggling workers paying to keep the well-off Holden workers well off. From The Age.
Blame the unions for job losses... Is this a form of victim shaming? Blaming the workers for management's inability to fund operations without relying on corporate welfare?
A couple of the NSW unions had a lazy 4 million dollars to throw at Labor's election campaign to further the political aspirations of the Union bosses. Sounds like the unions rip off workers money more than any employer.
It is not all a one-way street. At times business conditions mean that workers may need to bear some of the pain in order to maintain the viability of operations. Toyota had reached such a point and got agreement from the majority of it's workforce to cut pay/conditions. The AMWU and a handful of shop stewards preferred to play hardball with FWA and block the changes to the detriment of the workers.
Toyota. Public holiday on a Thursday. 60% of workers call in sick on the Friday. This happened a week after a big meeting between management and the unions that left Toyota feeling some hope. In in the words of one Toyota exec: "That was the day I knew Toyota Australia was finished".
I was told Toyota management knew when the workers were about to strike when the employees trailered their fishing boats into the employee carpark
Well said. And let's not forget the huge dollars sent overseas to the parent companies for "intellectual property".
