I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again... A bear market such as the one silver is currently in, does not stop on a dime. It needs to capitulate to find a mega support line. The attached chart shows the most likely stop on the current trajectory - US$14/$15 I expect to be buying some silver at this point.
See ozcoppers post http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...silver-to-set-up-massive-surge-above-100.html
I did see it - but anything posted on KWN is typical permabull stuff which has all been the same for the last 3 years.
upside is $20+++++++++++ ______________ down side is -$2.00 then was 2 years up move followed by 3+ years of down move. the time for capitulation may be stress-full and sudden. use this occasion to load up the frogs
Just wondered if spot prices do fall to 15USD, dealers can always jack up premiums such that it is no different than buying now.
Sure, but most bullion dealers are in business to pay the rent and salaries and utilities and insurance and etc, etc, etc every month. If prices stay at $14/$15 for any length of time, dealers will likely begin to undercut one another (lower their premiums) to make the sales they need to make in order to pay the bills....yes? I'm just saying, this is a possibility. .
Holding USD might be a reasonable idea in the short-term. Not sure if I am reading the wrong thing into your comment, but are you implying the AUD may not fall by that much?
I have noticed on GS however that the premiums on the low premium stuff have increased recently with the drop. It used to be the same ( of 5-10c difference ) between that and the unallocated cost per oz now it is out to $1.50 per oz difference.
About hedged dealers, is that the reason for those 3 months period cycles we see since some years? Could it be that every 3 months dealers order another batch silver, and simultaneously hedge this stock, driving the spot price up along its futures component arbitration? Then when they sell this silver stock, they drop their hedge with it, and price back down. Then the story repeats. Wouldn't surprise me to be an explanation. Dealers versus speculators.
I thought the average dealer would be continually hedging. But are there bigger players in the market who are operating on a cycle, both producers and purchasers?
Watch out for a fat finger with that OTC trade. "I am purchasing $617,000,000,000 of silver please". SHIT! <cxl> <cxl> <cxl> <cxl> <cxl> <cxl> <cxl>
Tulving used to keep naked positions at times. I think he failed to hedge in April, 2013 and that lead to his business having to close.
Well... after many years of telling people not to buy precious metals... my target of US$14/$15 for silver has finally been reached. This doesn't have to be the ultimate bottom, but I will be investing some $ at this point
I'm starting to feel a little sadi jumped on when out dropped below $20aud. still of things really do have a ways to go i can average down some more. with premiums and costs I'm averaging just over $20 an ounce which isn't to bad giveni have a nice mix of rounds, coins and premium brand bars which I'm hoping will stand me in good stead to recover some of the creami missed by jumping in early. $673 for some perth mint bars that haven't arrived and might only be worth $600 by the time they get here stings a little though. still, I've had more expensive lessons in finance and I'm pretty confident adopt the future so even though I went off half cocked, lower prices still look like a fire sale, not a disaster, to me.
