Just wondering how people seem to feel that $23 or so (the current price roughly) is a super low price, as I keep hearing quoted Looking back 5 years silver was sitting around$12. Looking back 10 years, it was around $5. I understand that relative to the 2011 spike this is a low price, but again, look at the late 70's spike and the prices that followed I know it's manipulated etc etc etc.. But I can't help but look at the historical context and wonder how mine costs are roughly $20 an ounce and that is our bottom, if only a few years ago it was a fraction of that in cost per ounce terms. Surely mine costs haven't inflated THAT much in such a short time. And certainly their cash costs would be the only REAL cost and their all-in cost would have been reduced by the binge buying and record highs pumping capital in. Someone interested in elaborating or pointing me to the light?? Cheers
Not saying prices won't go lower but your analysis might be a little biased towards the outcome you desire How much was oil 10 years ago and how much is it now ? Energy being one of the major mining costs
its not a "super low " price it is roughly where it should be considering that the all in cost of pulling an ounce out of the ground is less than $20/oz in most mines. Until we see this change or some other disaster happens we wont see silver prices much higher(or lower ) than where they are currently.
Silver is NOT dependent solely on mining costs; this fact has been borne out countless times as the price has dropped well below and risen significantly higher than mining costs for as long as there has been a modern market I believe. The spot is mainly a reflection of investor sentiment which is comprised of things like futures trading, industry demand, central bank buying, and even seasonal jewelry demand as just a few factors. No one really knows how low silver can fall in a consolidating market especially if there is massive manipulation on the horizon. That manipulation can work both ways too. If I were you I would read a variety of opinions on metals, not just opinions from stackers who have a vested interest in making certain unsubstantiated claims about metals prices. .
That applies to alot prices. More precisely: anything that can be stockpiled. Judging silvers price is basically judging a stockpile. The real question thus is: how big is silvers stockpile compared to others?
The bogus claims I read so far, mostly came from the corner of those that 'stockpile' it for a day, a week, a month and a year. How I know? You see them inverting their suggestions, depending on whether they are 'in', or 'out'. The general connotation about a stacker is somebody that stockpiles for a longer time, as a hedge against general price risings / inflation / central planned theft. Do above meet this criterium? I rather describe them as the 'money for nothing club'. Concentrations can be found in "Technical Analysis" subject topics. About silvers decade price trend, well, in the 197x + early 198x some stockpiles were created, that added to then existing govt stockpiles. During the subsequent decades, about upto 2003, these were sold, explaining the silver price hang during these 2 decades, while other prices rose (alot). Starting in 2003, and especially since 2007-2008, stockpiles were recreated, explaining the $5>$35 average price. But the stockpiling dropped again, and the new produced silver didn't find the demand it had during 2009-2011, and the average price dropped to 2014's so far - $20. If I sum together all coin sales and ETF stocks added during this period, I get an 'extra' (that's what matters when judging price -changes-) stockpile of about 1.2 annual world production(mining+recycling), with recycling now being 30% of it. How big is that compared with other products? Golds total stockpile (not just 'extra') for example is about 40 years annual production, with recycling being 60% of it. So in this aspect, if one calls silver a sissy, what is gold then? Gold isn't the reference though, as said, all the stockpiles together serve as reference to judge. Even houses, since many buy those as 'investment' too. And it's about the biggest longer term market/value in the world.
Good points as usual pirocco but even stackers can benefit from buying silver ETF's or physical silver low and selling high a few weeks or months later. My point is, as stackers, we don't have to confine ourselves in the most narrow archaic ways ("I will buy 10 ounces every month no matter what the price and hold it all for a very, very, very long time till the world goes nuclear on each other") So the analysis of those folks you seem to despise may help some stackers gain in the short term to increase their stack down the road when prices consolidate even further. .
Considering that we've had more than a 50% correction in the price of silver from 2011, I think it is fairly prudent to invest when the price is below $24. Gold has a long way to fall to reach this objective ($1900> $950). Now, does this mean that I think the bottom is in? No. Could we see a run up in prices to around $25/$1450? Maybe.
IMO, when the price of silver was $4/5oz was the time when ss members had a real chance to increase their wealth in just a short time.. Eg.. You had 1000 ozs silver bought at $5oz for a total cost of $5000. Now the price is $25oz, you now have a fiat value of $25000. Now contrast that with buying today at $25. silver will have to rise to $125oz..That will take a while unless TSHTF. So be prepared to take a small 10% increase pa as a good result, much better than bank interest. Regards Errol 43
Some very interesting points of view being brought up here! I agree that silver under 23 is a buy and agree that speculating on silver is not worth it unless you are one of the lucky few that loaded up the truck at $5! I'm also confused as to where silver is headed in 2014...
supply speculators and price in the future speculators hate speculators, since so many people hate investing in silver. they will love it in the future
In discussion they name that 'most narrow archaic ways' a 'strawman'. I didn't say to buy 10 ounces every month no matter price. I didn't say to hold silver forever (just the short version of your longwinded one). So let's talk about what I -did- say. My point was that many stackers (including me), aren't after profit, they are after preserving. These stackers don't buy silver (in whatever way), to then suggest (along a number bogus stories) others that the price is gonna explode, and that they should buy asap, to then quickly sell at the further driven up prices, ending their 'stacker' status. Don't tell me they buy physical then, because if they did, the price would just go back to where it came from. And afterwards, after they quickly sold, they don't suggest people that the price is gonna be driven to zero (after the may 2011 price drop I've seen such one claiming that the spot price "technically" can go to zero, as an attempt to make people concern/panic). And this makes quite clear my criticism: you say those folks help some stackers gain in the short term to increase their stack, but in reality, this implies other folks seeing their stacks decreasing. They sell their silver high.... to..... not... some.....alien.... or..... the....void.... but some other.... stacker. The formers extra ounces is the latter ounces deficit. And that losing side, is nicely ignored. It's not talked about. Helping some stackers increasing their stack! How nice! Basically, this is just a silver market-internal property shift, without permission, without voluntary agreement but based on misleading (if people would know the price would drop after they bought, they would wait to buy, huh?), much like ordinary theft. This behaviour has also nothing to do with speculation. It's just frontrunning/misleading. Real speculation allocates resources in time. An animal that collects the cheap (plenty there, surplus) fruits in autumn, stockpiles them, to sell them again in winter (more expensive, shortages). A real speculator thus STABILIZES price trends. He buys in times of surplus, thus preventing the price from falling further, to sell in times of shortage, thus preventing the price from rising further. The extreme silver price fluctuations on their own confirm indeed that this has nothing to do with speculation. It's just a gang thieves, that tell lies / bogus stories to drive others/stackers into errors, that they subsequently take advantage of. I'm not focussing on any market 'side' here. Not futures, not ETF's and not coins. It actually doesn't matter how this money for nothing club buys silver. What I do say is that the futures market position, can be seen as a reflection of the involved price risk. Because futures are mainly a hedging instrument, and people hedge against price movements, and price movements are caused by those people that buy/sell for profit. They can be wrong, like anyone, but on average they are LESS wrong than others, and that's why we see a correlation between their position and the price. A total net position of 50000 contracts of 5000 ounces means that they see a high price risk. That's also just logical because if they really thought todays price was a bottom, they would just buy immediately, instead of an agreement to buy over X months. Why do silver futures contracts near to never end in delivery? Because they actually don't want silver, only the money from those that really buy silver (alike stackers). So your 'helping', gimme a break, haha.
See, you shouldn't grant them the title 'speculator'. Because they are speculating nor gambling, they just observe people as to succeed to steal from them, much like pickpockets on a fleamarket. Sometimes they point the eyes of their targeted victims into another direction. Look there, a price explosion! Look there, the price consolidates to zero!
