[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGkmgnprrIU[/youtube] Great interview. I'd never heard of this guy before (does that make me a noob?). Terrible accent though. He does as good a job of butchering the English language as Jim Bolger. Anyway, it was good to hear an explanation of how you'd avoid the moral hazard of rewarding debtors if there was a debt jubilee.
Yeh steve keen is a realist, thing is he has lost so many bets that i think he is getting really pissed of about it. Steve is a deflationist **HARD** if you had listend to him about property you would have made no money so there is a bit of a disconnect but steve does make sense its just the world doesn't and thats why he keeps getting it wrong. I think though steve is about to have his day very soon when it all comes crashing down. He can finally get on his podium and say "I F*CKING TOLD YOU SO". I think a few years back steve keen lost a bet with a mac bank trader and had to wear a t-shirt acknowledging his loss, i think he made the bet on public tv, you can probably look it up by typing in google "steve keen loses bet" :lol: I do respect steve keen though ... good economist but wouldn't be a good hedge fund manager ...
He did loose a bet .. he did have to wear a shirt stating that he lost..But in all fairness to him the goalposts were moved while the game was on.. The Australian was fortunately able to pump the housing bubble a little higher through the 1st home buyers grant to 14k and some states kicked in as well. This did its job by keeping home prices up in a country lucky not to have a recession. Have another go Steve. Only this time double the distance to be walked. Oh no! better not do that, maybe the RE investors from China will help out this time.. See that China is about to enter the Australian banking Industry. This is one section I would not bet on as both sides of politics will do anything to get elected at the next election. Regards Errol 43
Yeh i agree, the goal posts where moved during the game but thats why he is an economist but not a hedge fund manager. Fund managers need to move with the game and get the latest info, steve was more stamping his feet and saying NO it shouldn't be like this, without considering what possible shenanigans the cronies in parliament could have done. I do wanna see steve keen have his day though, cause he views things in the proper way, it does however seem abit to clinical, not like how the real world actually works ... (well in the past anyway) if it gets past any point of rectification though, steve will have his day ... There is a reverse ETF on the property market ... be scary to bet on that i would say :lol:
Yea I have lost some respect for Keen, he doesn't mention Ron Paul at all and doesnt talk about sound money.
I dont think there would be a big change even if he did get elected. Politicians love promises and we love to halucinate. If Ron is to bcome president he needs to good campaign contributions andthats big bussiness. And big bussiness loves handouts. If he is to win he has to get them on his side and that means selling his soul just to become president. And if you sell enough of yourself you end up with your arms tied not able to do any important and useful changes since they will harm the people that funded you. So in other words if he doesnt become president its cause he hasnt sold himself to big bussiness. Even if he wins and wants to do the right thing all his efforts could be undermined by Senate/Congress Oh and the last presidential election had so many promises; how many were kept?
If you seriously think Ron would sell his soul just to get elected you have to be crazy, look at his track record, his age, the books he has written, the way eh has brought up his kids Everything about the guy screams honesty, integrity and principle You cannot buy and sell this man. There is a clear difference between Ron Paul and someone like Obama. Obama was groomed to become president since his early college days, just like many others were. Even if congress undermines him, which the people will demand they dont, he will at the very least pull out from all the wars and close down all the military bases around the world. He already has huge support from both sides to do a more detailed audit of the fed. There is a change in the air and Ron Paul is seriously swaying minds. The big Keynesian experiment is coming to an end and people are waking up
Yep, that's the clincher of the arguement. There's a vast difference between idealistic notions and reality and whilst Steve is a fundamentalist, he's also an academic and didn't take into account the political spectrum taking not only an interest in the proceedings, but a direct hand in the outcome. To be fair though, Australia has never seen such blatant market manipulation like that before and that's because there's inherent danger in government playing a role in the markets (who stands to bail out the government on a bad bet?) That's pretty much what we're facing now in this country. We've had a specific set of standards and expectations built around government interaction of the market and now that they've got a foot in, they can't take a foot out without committing political suicide. But by the same token, leaving the foot in is also creating political waves that will eventually amount to a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Undoubtedly the subject will be explained in ways that seem so obvious through academia after the fact, but right now everyone is too busy scrambling to make hay whilst the sun shines to pay any real attention to it. I agree with Keen in that eventually we're well and truly fubar over these decisions, but the point of when is one of real contention and he's honestly silly trying to put a specific timeframe or date on the outcome, especially considering who's involved in altering the outcome. But boom or bust there will be fortunes made or lost and there's really no point lamenting what should or could be, the world simply doesn't work like that. It's run by madmen all over, the usual principles, rules and standards really don't apply until after the fact and whilst there's undoubtedly grim satisfaction to be had in saying 'I fucking told you idiots so' in the end, it still won't alter the path of the majority or avoid the outcome. All you can do as an educated citizen (*wink*) is mind your own business in the matter, prepare for the inevitable and sieze opportunities as they come. Even the great depression made millionaires of those who could read between the lines.
So Steve's solution is to print money? Just give it to the debtors rather than the banks. And rob the savers in the process. Which is what I'm leaning towards thinking is going to happen anyway. Notice how he doesn't mention the consequences of printing money. Doesn't say how people who have savings would need to protect themselves by buying ,say, Gold or Silver. And my feeling is that it was the government policies that encouraged all this. Stupid schemes and messing with IR and such. The banks were just the enablers who eagerly followed and encouraged the govt because they knew it would enrich them.
He wants to give everyone money but those with debt have to pay down the debt so I guess savers would be better off than the debtors depending on how you look at it.
Encourages the wrong attitude to make future potential situations worse though. Broadscale debt forgiveness not only punishes the saving fraternity, but also sets a precedent for those who would look to gamble with borrowed money. If you dangle the benefits of massive wealth generation with no realistic downside, everyone jumps on board (not just the gamblers) for a slice of the action and the situation simply gets worse. Keen's ideology is that we should reward those who made a bad bet because to not do so would hurt us collectively (ie the fear complex) which for my mind completely undermines the fundamental economic virtues he constantly preaches as the ideal. This is why you DON'T manipulate the free market in the first place. You must allow failure to have appropriate punishment to ensure investments are made responsibly. Bailing out bad bets not only leaves a very bad taste in the mouth of the fiscally responsible, but also encourages further malinvestment ideology for the future. On certain fundamentals Steve is right, be any debt forgiveness ideology is something I'd flip the bird over as an ideal. Could you imagine 'too big to fail' ideology at every level of society? The system would literally fall apart...
Steve is good at identifying the problem. He also recognises that the debt has to go and that a slow process will be long and painful. But can't we at least acknowledge the realities here? There is no such thing as a free lunch. Yet Steve says, paraphrasing "it's good for everyone". Well, if it's good for everyone why didn't we do it before? Why is it hard politically? Why don't we just go on one endless massive money-printing spree, because if money printing and giving to people is good, we should do as much as possible for the greatest possible benefit right? Somebody is going to get screwed, someone has to pay, there is no way around it, unless you can change the laws of mathematics.
I think keen is pointing out what to do WHEN the debt can't be repaid back. A lot of people seem to think it is and IF the debt can't be paid back and if we come up with some magical solution that will be a good solution. Without a doubt this is the best of the worst situation. Alternatives are the banks getting all the money or total collapse, some may want total collapse but when it comes they will wonder why their SHTF stockpile is suddenly a threat to their health as hoards of starving mobs eye it up. Or you could just dig a hole ala Saddam Hussein
It makes me wonder if there is going to be an RE crash in this country or whether it will be silent (ie. real, but not nominal). Maybe I should start to look at investment properties since the govt may pay them off for me...
Keen is just an academic. His opinion holds little real world weight in my view, interesting though it is.
That's what I'm staring at to be honest. I've played the 'good citizen' all my life but lately I'm turning rogue over the whole thing. What's right isn't relevent until after the damage is done. So what can we as quasi experts on the issue (compared with the greater idiot flock) honestly do about it? Warn people who will spit in your face and call you a lunatic? Assume when it all DOES go to hell you'll be satisfied sitting around saying 'I told you so!'? I think our time would be far better spent on looking how to make the best of a bad situation. YES we can see the fundamentals on the whole situation are completely screwed up, but other than playing our role as chicken little over the whole thing, there's really sweet FA we can do about it. Better off using that knowledge to make more educated investment decisions than the flock, no? Love him or hate him, Robert Kiyosaki was absolutely correct in stating simply that there will ALWAYS be sheep out there to be shorn... [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfx43J0wzlU[/youtube] What I'm looking for now are genuine teachers so I can start a real road to being financially independent...
Referring to Steve Keen's youtube above, who I've been taking notice of for 5 or 6 yrs...... If bad debt was to be ridden off, I, along with many other prudent Australians would be furious. Imagine having the foresight to see what's coming, renting, being frugal and saving, and then seeing the guy down the road have his million dollar debt ridden off....Does he then get to keep the million dollar house and I continue to rent....Man, there'd be anarchy....The only solutions are for greedy would be property millionaires to end up with bugger all...
