Stavely Minerals (SVY)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by scott_reeve, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    SVY weekly chart:
    [​IMG]

    still looking for a porphyry in Victoria.
     
  2. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    +223% so far today on strong copper assay results.
    32m at 5.88% Cu, 1.00g/t Au & 58g/t Ag from 62m incl: 2m at 40% Cu, 3g/t Au and 517g/t Ag.
     
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  3. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How can someone with no financial know how get themselves invested in SVY?
     
  4. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    It's difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 99% of ASX mining explorers waste shareholders money and never discover anything significant. Genuine discoveries are rare and Tier 1 discoveries only come about in Australia typically every 10-20 years. Sirius Resources was probably the last one (it went from about 5c to $5 after finding the Nova nickel deposit).

    SVY has been trying for a few years now to find something significant in rural Victoria. They have been drilling a deposit called Thursdays Gossan (TG) for over 2 years (spending over A$10 million) and still haven't found the 'core' of the porphyry deposit.

    Today's copper results are from a secondary shallow target which has returned very high copper results and should be an open pit deposit in its own right. It makes me wonder what would happen if SVY every did find the core of the TG deposit - its results would be hugely significant compared to today's assay results.

    I am no geologist, but have followed the SVY story closely for about two years. I initially bought some in late 2017 before the excitement of TG took off in early 2018. Then sold some, then bought some again. Currently holding a position (may lighten depending on what happens with the daytraders today).
     
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  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Theyre in a trading halt, so presumeably when they open we would be looking at an increase in share price based on the assay results?
     
  6. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    SVY is still trading today. Currently 82 cents.

    Also, I may not have answerd your first question. You'd need an online stockbroking account to buy ASX shares. Like Commsec, Nabtrade, IG Markets etc.
     
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  7. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Might have missed the bus on SVY then. Just opened a Westpac trading account. I will take the time to do a bit more reading around before pulling the trigger. Thanks very much for sharing your charts on the forum.
     
  8. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    I won't hype or de-hype what SVY announced today. Timing and risk management is everything in the stockmarket and everyone needs to do their own research.

    Longterm SVY holders have been expecting something like this (or better) for a long while. SVY holders have been waiting on better porphyry drill results (ongoing). Porpohry deposits are complex and usually take years to drill (as what has happened to SVY). If a genuine discovery of a porphyry is made it is company-changing. eg. One of the best porphyry's in Australia is Cadia-Ridgeway (near Orange, NSW) - discovered and owned by Newcrest. It is one of the best gold-copper mines in the world, low cost and has a mine life of something like 60 years.

    Usually when a stock goes up over 200% in a day, its usually pumped and dumped by day traders. Especially if its a biotech or an overhyped sector like Lithium or cobalt was back in 2017. Sometimes the 200% jump in justified if its a company-changing event. SVY has not made a Tier 1 discovery (as yet), but its now known by the market. The huge volumes will mean and TA traders will now have SVY on their watchlists.

    Similarly ALK made promising porphyry drill intercepts on 9 September 2019 and went from around 39 cents to 85 cents over several days.

    Also at some point in the next couple of months SVY will do a capital raise.
     
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  9. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Currently $1.19, +395% in 1 day since assays announcement.
     
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  10. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Latest SVY weekly chart:
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Hitting $1.385 this morning
     
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  12. Bobsydney

    Bobsydney Member

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    Looks like a pump and dump. Capital raising incoming.
     
  13. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    If it were a pump & dump ASX style, it'd be back down to 24 cents (pre-2 Oct ann.), but its no where near that. At $1.08 (today's close) its still up +350% from early Oct.

    MD was talking about likely cap raise weeks ago when SP was below 20c, yet it still hasn't happened. At the time, he said CR would occur at some point in the next few months, but it wasn't urgent as they had $2.8m at 30/06/19 + around $1.2m (from memory) left in the pre-paid drilling column. There is also 15.65m Unlisted Options well in-the-money now (exc. price @ 36c by end of 2019) & much of this will likely be converted quite soon. Full conversion of Options would put A$5.6m in SVY kitty for more drilling.

    With 183million shares (undiluted) outstanding, when a CR does come it will probably add 10-20 million shares, which isn't much, and will mean SVY won't need to do a CR for probably at least a year or more.

    Such is the random rumour mill on social media. 99% of the new-wave of SVY 'experts' didn't even know it existed a week ago.
     
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  14. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    TH. AFR saying SVY seeking $19 million at $1 per/share. This is still +316% higher than where SVY was on 25 Sept (2 wks ago). This money would go a long way for drilling and there won't be any need for more CRs over next 12 months.

    Also, on my previous comment on Unlisted Options. Some where converted yesterday. It looks like much of these Options will be converted with a 'cashless exercise' process. ie. my understanding is that Option holders pay nil cash upfront (ie. does not raise money for SVY), but means they receive less SVY shares as a result.
     
  15. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    $19.6m raised at $1. Only 19.6m extra shares on issue. That money will cover a lot of diamond holes.

    Currently $1.33, +33% over CR price.
     
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  16. hotchef

    hotchef Member

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    Ka Ching , well done!! Appreciate the charts also, and analysis!!
     
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  17. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    SVY chart update:
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Bobsydney

    Bobsydney Member

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    Falling further is it being dumped now? Director sold at top.
     
  19. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    These spec resources stocks go hot-cold-hot-cold throughout the year.

    There was talk the drilling company working for SVY in Victoria was selling about 2 mill of its shares earlier in the year (but apparently it has finished selling).

    I suspect there has also been speculative money flowing into ALK & MAG, with the former due to announce its 5 hole diamond drilling programme at Boda (NSW). ALK made a porphyry discovery hit in about Sept 2019 which got the market excited. (SVY was also looking for a porphyry before it hit the large shallow copper target last year). There is a lot of built-expectation in ALKs results now that its trading at 90c. Porphyry deposits are usually very geologically complex and can take years to drill looking for the high-grade 'core' (If it exists at mineable depths).

    In short, possibly speculators are on ALK at the moment as its news flow is due before SVY (SVY's next set of results likely end Feb which includes Tasmanian gold drilling).

    Also, the market is probably expecting an update from SVY on how the new sonic drill rig is performing (as this different type of rig was planned to better preserve some of the higher-grade copper intercepts (chalcocite). Chalcocite is like 80% copper and much of this was being lost in the diamond drilling process).

    Chartwise, ideally, SVY needs to get back above 82.5c to start putting a bottom in this bear trend.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2020
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