Some good information

Discussion in 'Silver' started by 797craig, Nov 30, 2015.

  1. 797craig

    797craig New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2013
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Canada
  2. Cheepo

    Cheepo New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2014
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    How on earth can demand be higher than supply? Every time someone buys, someone sells.
     
  3. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2014
    Messages:
    12,433
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Paper markets. Just sell what you don't have. Easy.
     
  4. Cheepo

    Cheepo New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2014
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Wouldn't selling what you don't have increase supply? And for every seller, wouldn't there be a buyer (e.g. a bank). Without a buyer, there is no transaction.

    Though I agree that supply may outstrip demand (at a particular price). This means that someone (e.g. a mine) is unwilling to sell at the current price, and stores the goods waiting for the price to rise. In this case, the silver would be stored (probably by a mine) in some place.

    But demand cannot exceed supply. You can't have people buying more stuff that there is to buy.
     
  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    Though in no way representative of the futures markets, this would in fact increase supply.
     
  6. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2015
    Messages:
    1,991
    Likes Received:
    814
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    US

    What it simply means is that the physical demand was higher than that year's annual mined ounces. In the real world, this means ounces mined in prior years must be brought onto the market to satisfy the physical demand of the current year.

    The old "for every buyer there is a seller" argument is what the bears here use to discuss futures markets to try and say manipulation cannot exist. You need to study the "How to be an online bear on PM blogs" study manual a bit more thoroughly to know this.

    Just my opinion.

    Jim
     
  7. ryan71

    ryan71 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Florida
    If I wanted to control the price of something, defying the law of supply and demand, I'd create a fake market parallel to the actual market. And I'd use paper or digits or both.
     
  8. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,493
    Likes Received:
    15
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P

    People wanted ASE's and they couldn't get them, there were more orders than supply could satiate. On a broader scope it's just like being able to spend more than you earn, you can deficit spend and owe paper or simply be digging into your savings making you cashflow negative.

    Simply though if I have 10 things and 15 people want to buy my 10 things then there is more demand than supply.
     
  9. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2014
    Messages:
    12,433
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    48
    It will increase artificial supply, or promises to supply, or rights to future delivery, but not today's supply of the underlying physical, and could push down the price of the physical product thereby (potentially) increasing demand further (although not necessarily... price and shifting of the demand curve is not so straightforward). Now, what happens if all those people suddenly decided they desired delivery on the promise? Demand would exceed supply, COMEX would default, and stackers become the new super rich.... at least that's the conspiracy theory put out by the metal pumpers.

    The reality of the market is not so one sided however (at least for COMEX) where promises to sell are usually matched by relatively equal numbers of promises.

    And apparently mine output has been increasing.
     
  10. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    ^ This.
    Without revisiting the facts that show this line of argument to be very misleading, I'll stick with my previous statement that this is in no way representative of how the futures markets work. ;)
     
  11. Cheepo

    Cheepo New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2014
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    OK, so the demand was met with silver that was unsold over the previous years. What is the problem?
     
  12. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2014
    Messages:
    4,226
    Likes Received:
    1,994
    Trophy Points:
    113

    The answer to that is basic economics. For example - If I have one tennis ball available and both you and your friend want it then demand has outstripped supply.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Cheepo

    Cheepo New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2014
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Woah! Such genius!

    :D

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2014
    Messages:
    4,226
    Likes Received:
    1,994
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well based upon your thought process cheepo I assumed you were a juvenile or at least someone who is required to wear a helmet when going outside. Hence I was trying to be diplomatic whilst explaining a simple concept that eluded you (based on your very own words) but even my dogs understand.

    As such I understand anyone with an IQ over 30 would be deemed a genius in your books and I thank you for your kind words
     
  15. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2014
    Messages:
    12,433
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Yep, Bron wrote about it earlier: http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/08/17/demand-price-disconnect/
     
  16. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2011
    Messages:
    2,430
    Likes Received:
    126
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Australia
    " I'll stick with my previous statement that this is in no way representative of how the futures markets work"

    Sorry to rain on your parade but futures markets don't work these days. The role of futures markets as they were originally set up was to protect the producer and allow him to forward sell commodities. Bad news is that today these markets are bankrupting and utterly destroying the producers, have little to do with any commodity and are now the modern "sophisticated" casinos. So when the commodity eventually disappears, you better be out of the casino.
     
  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    Well, given my line of work, I know that is absolute rubbish. :)
    Better to stop believing everything you read on the agenda-pushing interweb sites.
     
  18. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2011
    Messages:
    2,430
    Likes Received:
    126
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Australia
    Your line of work ? I wont ask. I have several mates who work in the mining industry - I know what is happening there. You love to rubbish other peoples comments, don't you ?
     
  19. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    No, I love to comment on other peoples rubbish.
     
  20. Aureus

    Aureus Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    2,949
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Milky Way Galaxy
    don't forget the repercussions of taking the bait, a tasty morsel is not worth the hook that comes with it.
     

Share This Page