So what's China's next move?

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by Silver260, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. Silver260

    Silver260 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Covid 19 is making a lot of countries/companies , who depend upon manufacturing from China, look at their own internal supply chains, as well as alternative sources.

    China's entire economy is based upon supplying cheap labour and products to the rest of the world. It can't afford to lose this role.

    Are we going to ultimately see a stimulus program of gigantic proportions, similar to the GFC ?. Or will they simply hope this passes by, with little impact on future supply chains?. Will they accelerate their own efforts to become self-sufficient?

    Will our own ( Western) demand for cheap labour and products, override any real demand for change, once things return to normal?

    I'm sure there's probably 100 different points I haven't even considered. I'm possibly even looking at this from the wrong perspective.

    Any thoughts or articles on this greatly appreciated :)
     
  2. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think that it's going to be two tsunamis for the Chinese economy and businesses unfortunately. The first wave washed over China when it's factories and businesses shut down for the most part and is still occurring although they seem to be recovering.

    The second wave will be that as they are getting back on their feet their international customer base will be moving into shutdown as the WuFlu sweeps around the world. A long recovery time indeed.

    The third wave could potentially be the failure of many airlines and shipping companies that cannot survive the downturn. And no doubt many, many second order consequences that will make it difficult for Chinese businesses to get their manufactured goods into the hands of their shrinking international customer base. For example the cancellation of thousands of passenger airline movements around the world also cancels many of the millions of Chinese government subsidised "free shipping" Ebay parcels that were carried around the world in the holds of passenger flights each day.

    What will China do? I suspect that the CCP will have to turn it's attention inwards to deal with domestic turmoil as small-medium enterprises fail by the hundreds of thousands and their debt crisis magnifies. They may have to tone down their military and One Belt One Road aspirations for a while to deal with a burgeoning middle class crisis at home.
     
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  3. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    They will invade Taiwan and solve all their problems with conscription of the unemployed. There's no debt crisis big enough that a war can't fix!
     
  4. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think that the days of conscripted peasant armies are over. They are basically useless except as cannon fodder. War is technological now.
     
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  5. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All Chinese cities have strict measures still and it will be like that until a vaccine is available. The same in Korea and any other city or town in the world soon.

    Stories of Chinese factories coming back to normal is patently false. Sure some will break the rules, but few days from now China, south korea and any other country even after the peak will have another break out and that areas will be locked down, this is life and the new normal.

    Social Distancing is the new norm in any public places and in the work place.
    Go to a South Korean ticket sites, there is nothing to buy... not because its sold out, but because there is no sports, events or concerts now scheduled to October

    Ask people in expat areas in China if there are still check points everywhere wearing hazmat suits, answer will be yes.

    Many cities within China have 14 day quarantine requirement in government facilities if they come from outside of the province.

    Only high tech factories can achieve semblance of normal production most less hi tech factories are still struggling to get workers or even permits to open.

    Stop worrying about China until we have our shit in order.
    We might come out of Covid-19 a bankrupted third world country lol.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The One Belt One Road will continue but it will be re-calibrated. After this episode, China will refocus on northern borders (Mongolia, North Korea, Kazakhstan) instead of the South China Sea. Traditionally, the risk had always been from the north.

    Why did you think they built the Great Wall of China 2000 years ago? The current rulers didn't heed the advice of the ancestors. In order to secure the central plains, you need to subjugate the north, north east and north west. Then you can have southern adventures.

    The Ming splurged on Zheng Ho trips to the South China Sea, neglected the North and in the end, the Manchus from the north invaded and conquered them.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the BRI had been budgeted for, so long as participant countries can do, its full steam ahead
    China will continue to diversify, chemical explosions, the Wuhan virus lock down
    its too obvious, the world cannot even make sufficient face musk
    Chinese is determined to beat corona-virus
     
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China sending tons of Medical equipment to Italy and experts to help.



    We are still debating if NRL matches should be played.

    Before the spike in South Korea, South Korean Government sent a giant cargo ship loaded with medical supplies to China (yes plenty of SK citizens complained). But now China is sending South Korea expedited supplies it can spare and within few weeks, China has reciprocated in kind with more than what South Korea sent
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  9. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    If i was China and had a tendency towards revenge i would thinking about the HUUUUUUGE tariffs i might impose on exported medicines and ingredients to make them.
    That's just me though
     
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  10. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    If the world always worked like this is would be an incredible place to live.
    Sadly too many are happy to just take and never return .
     
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  11. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Revenge against who?

    I think you underestimated the Chinese. The CCP may talk tough and nasty, but revenge is not their cup of tea. China won’t be a nation for 2000 years if all they think of is revenge. In comparison, all the other superpowers have less than 400 years history as a unified country. Chinese people don’t live in the past.

    When the Manchus conquered China, they killed tens of million Chinese, entire cities were slaughtered if they don’t surrender, Mongol style. Today, the Manchus are intermarried with the Chinese. Did they talk about revenge? The Chinese culture today is partly Manchurian.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  12. Silver260

    Silver260 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is exactly what concerns me. China consumes 30% of our exports, add tourism ect on top of that. What they do next, will have a massive impact on our future.
     
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  13. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  14. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

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    If this virus mutates into a real killer and the food chain is disrupted, then the next move may be Soylent Green.
     
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  15. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just be a good sport and take your shot, for the benefit of society. Roll up your sleeves now!
     
  16. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last I saw the TV today they (MSM) were condemning anyone who associates the virus with China as bigoted racists. The priority of the MSM must always be to make us feel ashamed even in crisis.
     
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  17. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The MSM is there to tell you off for thinking for yourself. Doesn't matter what conclusion you reach, do not think for your self no matter what. Just switch on the telly and listen. Don't think.

    We live in a very curious world that is only eyes deep. What you see is what you get. Nothing passes deeper than your skin, no processing by the brain or heart.
     
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  18. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    I am afraid i strongly disagree.
    China has survived as a nation for 3000 years BECAUSE THEY LIVE IN THE PAST.
    It is the past that binds them together .
     
  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You might have read too much CCP propaganda. Reality is different from propaganda. Xi asked Abe why Chinese liked Japanese culture so much whereas the Japanese disliked the Chinese.

    There are even some Chinese people with Japanese names but you can hardly find a Japanese person living in Japanese with a non-Japanese name.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its not very long, after
    China is sending help to Iran, Iraq and Italy
     

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