Any serious comments pertaining to the next er, IMF orchestrated reserve currency? The next Rockefeller magical trick to enslave the world? If you think like me & see the US$ on it's last legs & challenged by the east, what are your true thoughts on the next PTB assault on the free mans' earnings?
Jim Rickards seems pretty credible. I've read Currency Wars & currently reading Death of the Dollar. I think it will play out along the lines of his musings.
They may be numbered, just like customer tickets at the woolworths deli, but understand that most the other major currencies also have numbers and they will be served first. We will see an all time high in the u.s. Dollar well before the rot sets in. Just like pool balls, the dollar to zero crowd are being racked, positioned and about to be cracked.
Thanks heaps for ur insight Tolly.....MUCH appreciated.....Thats if you are actually right of course. :/
Follow the money. That will show you what is right. Opinions count for nothing. When things get tough, where does the money ? Just keep your eyes on that u.s. Dollar index. All will be revealed.
Interesting take! I should have added that I've been watching the currency wars/trade wars for years now but, it just seems the time is so much closer for the east to threaten at least some destabilisation of sorts. SM, though it may be a little ways off just yet it will have a decent correction. As for your comment on the US$ reaching an all time high prior to it diving, can you I fine the FED pumped SM when she is in the death throws? Gold, whether the yellow or the black kind may be the only safe place for a while. Miners, may just be pulled along in the momentum until the day they are necessary again. Gold miners with enough resource will stand out imo then but only the value inherent ones that have been diligent with their cost-lowering measures aka AISC. Interesting times ahead in the very near future for our dollar too. I would have thought the Aussie Dollar would have been a safe haven when the US$ tanked but, not so sure now our economic woes are out in the open.......
They are not even close to being able to challenge the u.s. Dollar. Look at world trade and you will see that the u.s. Dollar is by far the most dominant by a long way. As such it has market depth to be able to absorb enormous quantities of capital at any time and a developed market to enable this to take place. It is the universal currency at this point in time. No currency on this planet can come close. This is just a fact as to why when times become uncertain that there is only one currency to hold capital in if you are going to hold currency. The most recent incidents proved this. This of course does not mean the u.s. Dollar won't fall, it means it will be the last of the big currencies to fall.
I tend to think if/when the global economy does tank it will happen from the outside-in. Money will flow from speculative markets to the safety of the US dollar/US treasuries in the first instance as these have generally been seen as safehavens. Couple of useful indicators to keep track off I have found are: USD Index: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy (strength/weakness of the USD) VIX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix (The Volatility in the US sharemarket) Baltic Dry Index: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND (Shipping/Cargo Index) 3 Month Libor rate: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND (Interbank lending rate) 10Y treasury spreads: http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads US 90 day mortgage delinqency rate: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DLQTDLQT:IND By tracking these 6 indexes even just once a week you're cutting down significantly the chance of being caught out by a "black swan" event. These indices will move either up or down depending on the particular indice months before something big happens. Months prior to the GFC, US mortgage delinquencies were streadily rising along with the 3 month Libor rate. I saw this and at the time moved my super which was still in a retail fund into cash to avoid the stock crash and bought physical metals and oil/energy stocks and defensive stocks like Telstra.
This is true. It is one thing to have these wonderful theories about why something should happen in a certain way but when it is obvious that it isn't the case then the theory is plain wrong. So much talk of dollar to zero, so little talk about why it hasn't and even less talk about it moving much higher. As in most things, the majority are always wrong.
Disagree Tolly_67....... All the big currencies survive because the US maintains the status quo. I think the USD will crack and it will come within the next decade... It looks on the outside as being so robust... When SHTF in markets the USD booms... of course it does almost every market is denominated and traded in USD. Answer this. IF hypothetically tomorrow the USD was no longer the worlds reserve currency. Say Russia and China created their own dual currency and managed to crack the petro dollar and managed to get more than 50% of the worlds major oil exporters to accept this currency as payment instead of USD........ How long would the USD last? The reserve currency status is the only thing holding the USD afloat. It can't stand on its own two feet without that like the AUD does or the GBP does. Lost reserve currency status would see inflation hit America faster than you can type Weimar Germany and the dollar would be toilet paper.
Yeah but how many US dollars invested overseas would need to come back home to provide liquidity to US businesses/investors just to keep themselves afloat? Any sign the US economy is in trouble (and a move away from other countries from using the USD in trade would weaken the dollar slowly), the first thing that will happen is money will flow back to US shores weakening other economies at a much faster pace than the US itself. IMO and all that
