Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by SilverDJ, Oct 4, 2019.
What's going to happen this Friday? Smack up or smack down?
I will brave a call on this one, and go with the traditional Friday smackdown .... the odds are in my favor
Haha unless it drops to $1250 it's not a smackdown.
QE is just starting and we are still lowering rates and it will continue since the emperor wears no balls.
I predict we won't see prices go much lower than 1450 USD unless Trump does Trump stuff and the China deal falters. We've seen spot fluctuate between 1450 and 1550 for two weeks now. Really need some strong market signal to make a break in either direction.
There is no China deal and trump does trump stuff daily. Including acting like there is a China deal.
My take on this:
I believe this will be in play today (and I think its a big one) at 10:30pm Sydney Time:
Depending on how the numbers look, it will affect PM heavily. Because if the numbers aren't good, this guarantees the Fed to lower rates again.
My take is that, and I'm hoping I'm wrong, is that the numbers won't look good. The US ISM Manufacturing Index (another highly sensitive figure) had two consecutive figures under 50.0, which heavily indicates that either a recession is coming or were already in one.
The Non-ISM Service Numbers weren't very good either so I'm guessing that these numbers won't look good either. If the actual numbers are far below forecasted, it will rattle the PM prices. If the numbers are better than expected, than it should subdue the rising PM prices for now.
This should indicate why PMs have been going sideways for now as everyone is waiting for these numbers.
Whats your source for these reporting requirements if you don't mind sharing? Also if these numbers are bad, what's your prediction for PM's (up due to poor results, or down due to subsequent lowering of rates)
In an overly simplistic answer (just to kept it short and simple) if the non farm payroll numbers disappoint, it shows a contraction in the jobs market, therefore will push stocks down and PM’s up. If it’s especially disappointing, this will be amplified. The US manufacturing numbers came in at a 10 year low, which is a bad sign for the economy and a possible indicator of recession risk. A general consensus is that there is a link between manufacturing numbers and the expected non farm payroll numbers.
On the flip side, if the non farm payroll numbers increase, stocks will be boosted. The stronger the number, the more positive the reaction on Wall St, which could lead to a slight fall in PM’s.
I got this from dailyfx.com in the economic calendar section and frequently view it when I could. Having a look at the weekly announcements gives you some mental preparation on what kind of announcements are expected and how they might affect currencies but it seems to work quite well with PMs as well.
The main ones I look at are the US, AU and Chinese and occasionally EU announcements. The highly sensitive ones do affect prices but I do find that the Medium sensitive announcements do surprisingly rattle PM prices or the Australian Dollar.
Looks like the unemployment rate came out better than expected, which is showing in the PM prices as we speak.
This should hopefully give a bit more time to accumulate before everyone starts panicking and run to safe haven assets again.
Though I wouldn't say its out in the woods as the Fed has a press conference tomorrow.
Hope that helps.
By the way the Non-farm payrolls came out lower than expected so this seems to balance it out.
Wall Street might try to spin the unemployment numbers and get the stock markets rolling over again.
From what I've seen, if the numbers disappoint, it either affects the currency or PMs or both.
Another thing to look out for is how consecutively highly sensitive announcements disappoint estimates. The more figures disappoint, the more it seems to amplify.
But from what I've seen, the Fed announcements (especially unexpected ones) seem to rattle prices the most along with the occasional Trump tweets
Damn right they will, and they’ll continue to try polish this turd. After all, if unemployment is at a 50 year low then why do they need to push rates lower and lower in order to get the economy from faltering? What a paradox
Thanks kindly fellas, learn new things everyday on this wonderful forum.
If you have a look at before and after the time of the announcement, you will see that this caused a 30-40 cent drop in silver and a 10-20 dollar drop in gold as I'm writing (all in AUD).
Whether this persists or recovers later on is another story but hopefully this gives a general idea on what these announcements do.
The unemployment numbers look low because theyve changed how they count that.
It's part of the manipulation they keep pumping.
Real unemployment in the us is closer to 30 percent or higher so dont believe any of the numbers they give you.
They only count people currently receiving unemployment checks and people dont understand that.
They can make any numbers look the way they want.
Under employment is a huge problem in Singapore due to very low wages for blue collar work, wages even lower than HK although the cost of living here is slightly lower. Youth unemployment is also very high but you don't find this reported in government unemployment figures. There are only 3.5 million Singaporeans (3 million if you deduct off migrants citizens) and the government can't create enough jobs for youths. The US has a lot more people so it will be 100x harder.
Here's some news from India - https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a82e94-edb3-11e8-8b47-bd0975fd6199_story.html
At first glance, 19 million students applying for 63k jobs doesn't look like a big deal, but the fact that nearly all were college students and are applying for porter, cleaner jobs is shocking. If any of your kins can't settle down on a job, show them this article. There are much more educated people than there are jobs in the world and the situation will only get worst in the future.
Yes that could be true but these are the announcements large hedge funds, currency traders and other large institutions use and they have the money so it will show on the markets. To them its a matter of what is announced rather than whether the numbers are true or not. It's still good to look at the outcome of these as it would give you a general idea of the mood of the markets.
Looks like gold and silver regained most of what they lost so:
1) Either the markets are not buying the announcements as you say
2) Prices have gone back up and will drop again as more investors/traders act on the announcements
Now if both the non-farm payroll and unemployment were negative, then my guess is that PMs would have shot up and continued its upward trend due to previous announcements also being negative as well. Which means that if you are trying to buy more PM, you would be competing with more people with more money at a higher price.
None the less this doesn't change the fact that the Fed will most likely lower interest rates further and use unconventional tools to try to sustain the economy.
Yep it's the only option they have at this point and it's a failing experiment so it constantly needs more.
Interest rates will continue to fall and denial will follow as always.
They have no tools to fix anything but they can keep it going I'm sure.
Seems like fishduck was right on the money as it dropped around 10.30 and back up again.
Chinese market opening tomorrow.
So renewed demand = spot UP?
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