I have come across several people that have "Silvers real worth is $20US per oz in 2015 and will be worth $25US per oz by 2020" written on their profile. Im just wondering how this "real worth" was calculated?
Send them a pm, or create an "addressed" topic, to ask them for their formula. I asked this several times upon such claims but the amount answers sits so far at zero. And to even start with: that "real worth", heh, shouldn't that be in terms of X kilo potatoes or Y pair of socks? Since a 2015 dollar probably differes in such "real worth" from a 2020 dollar. My total guess is that the profile is a vested interest article.
Calculation + formula for 2015: W = S Where: W = Real Worth of silver ($) S = Spot price ($) For calculation of 2020 real worth, see Post #2
Judging by world debt this noob reckons 2020 should see silver anywhere between $40-70+ . If that happens people will look back and think what a bargain silver was at this price.
It will be whatever people are willing to pay for it. Silver is to small a market and too volatile to call. Love the stuff but that is what it is. Silver powder for industrial is where it is at. What happens in China is key and that looks bad for commodities. Thing is it is such a relatively small cap market that it may get bought up on a dip. Silver going up because of a BTFD how ironic would that be. It would need a 50% fall to 9 or so before a rapid rise back to the 20s in that scenario. Bear in mind we are talking silver here so I may as well be guessing and space craft design in a thousand years time.
If you're looking at silver price predictions based on purely economic factors like global debt or a ratio against the s&p500 then I think you're better off looking into gold predictions and using that as as rough guide for what silver will do. There's lots of serious people doing serious (guess) work on gold's future. That won't tell you what silver will be but it's a good indicator.
An indicator that is based on central planning isn't an indicator that is based on purely economic factors. But, let's look into gold predictions. Gold purchases by central banks (that's the central planning folks), as gathered by Thomson Reuters, and published by the World Gold Council: Year 2013 figure: 1) report 2014Q1: 386.6 tonnes 2) report 2014Q2: 409.3 tonnes 3) report 2015Q1: 625.5 tonnes Year 2014 figure: 1) report 2014Q4: 477.2 tonnes 2) report 2015Q1: 588.0 tonnes Oh Wait. This is reporting the past. We need predicting the future. But, If the indication of the past is already wrong in such a degree, then what are indicators of the future worth? And, A metal does nothing. It's people that do. It's people that predict. This is a zero sum market. Predictions have a nasty tendency to not reflect the own actions. Selling high requires suckers buying high. And the hefty price fluctuations prove it. Caused by serious people on serious markets.
I wouldn't worry about the price too much, it goes where it goes. Just keep your metal purchases around 20% of your total wealth, work hard to pay off house and buy another one for investment, have some shares (especially PM companies, if you are buying bullion you may as well buy stocks also as they go up more than bullion in a PM bull market) and have enough cash saved to cover a years worth of expenses/debt repayments.
Everything is still measured in dollars as a reference, conversion and denominator... even the value of your potatoes can be measured in dollars.
:lol: I'd believe that if oz's reflected purchasing power.... but unfortunately, spot price still dictates this important factor. That is why such a huge proportion of posts here focus on Spot Price.
Well, I know what your problem is: you think too much. And too rationally. Can't you just go with blind faith? Perhaps grab a Malooney's tattoo with it too?
Seemed like when I joined people were always predicting what silver would be worth and crowing about it when they were getting close to right day by day with others 'calling them out" for being wrong by re hashing old threads so I thought I would Put my prediction in my signature. So my formula was in 2015 silver would be costing me at least $20US an oz to buy, spot plus premium which it is.
Lol and your "experienced opinion" is what price lol You have no better idea of future silver prices than anyone having a guess! no matter what you think lol
The comparison was 2015 dollar versus 2020 dollar. What is the common part on both sides of the equation? That is the part that one can eliminate. Use your potatoes err I mean brain. It's basic maths.
I think you confuse opinion with vested interest talk. The very act of speculation is foreseeing. Guessing is for casino's. Though, some speculate nor guess. They just post what they want others to think, and they don't even like people that collect data to try to foresee, because their profit needs suckers that don't so that they make the wrong decisions. Words like "nooooob" just replace their persistent lack of arguments. They do have arguments, but giving them would make too clear their motive.
