August 2010 Silver was $20au /oz ........ The price for a first home-buyer type new house where I live was $360,000 (New house, 3bedroom 2bathroom kinda thing) ... so priced in silver 18,000 ounces November 2010 (When i bought 10,000 ounces of Silver) Silver was $25au/oz .... Same house was $360,000 .... so priced in silver 14,400 ounces April 2011 (15th... current price) ... Silver is $40.70au/oz ..... Same house where i live is $350,000 (over supply of houses here and slight cooling off in market) ..... so priced in silver 8600 ounces http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ty-prices-plunge/story-e6frfmd0-1226040207600 The drop in Real Estate in Melbourne recently, so I think where I am is not the only area "cooling off" My target for jumping from the precious metals ship and getting back on the Real Estate Bandwagon is between 1500 and 1000 ounces of silver for The First Home-buyers type of house in my area... With all the reasons I got into Silver in the first place being even stronger now than they were last year I cant see this not happening. The Question is when do you guys think this will happen if at all?... 2012, 2013?...2015 ... who knows ...
I agree and the gap is narrowing. I do own my current house now so I can plan from a relaxed point of view. My intention is to get hold of a smaller 1 or 2 bedroom unit. This can then be used primarily for rental income. Or perhaps some land 'further out' to retire to. I am staying flexible and will consider my lifestyle needs. I can't accurately predict the time (I am thinking 3 years from now) but then I am still stacking so the time for this to happen is not so important. I will be ready when it does come.
Gbickle, the Rats have only just begun to flee the sinking ship of real estate investment in Australia, and many have still not got the message that the party is over (including several members of this website forum). Just be patient, the tide is moving in your direction.
when we are in phase 3 proper - ie the speculative borrowing phase in PMs in my view we are fairly early in the media attention phase another factor to consider is the point at which it catches on bigtime in China and India it should be a volatile ride remember that in July QE2 officially ends what comes next may make a huge difference in PMs I think there are also several swindles left in the RE game, given that it is propped up by cheap credit and government intervention. The government has not yet engaged in full scale residential MBS buying nor has it forced Treasury bonds down the throat of our super funds yet In any case, whether you choose RE or silver will depend on your situation. Let's say you have a good deposit - 200k. Both silver and RE are high right now. You could make a good argument to wait for a dip in either. Silver is notoriously volatile. If silver falls back to $25, you could buy 8000oz, if purchasing at spot. If you buy about now at $40, you would get 5000oz, if at spot That's a difference of 3000oz.
That's what I thought when gold went to $300 after getting down to $250. I reasoned it would be best to wait for a pullback. Boy, was I wrong.
Well I sourced some data and plotted the number of ouces to buy the median Melbourne house since 1968: Source: Housing Data (1960 - 2006): http://www.retireonproperty.com/pro...ch/australian-property-prices-since-1960.html Housing Data (2007 - 2010): http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]?opendocument LBMA Silver Prices (1968 - 2011): http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metal_prices.aspx AUD Exchange Rates (1991 - 2011): http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment_invest_in_gold_precious_metal_prices.aspx AUD Exchange Rates (1971 - 1990): http://currate.com/historical-exchange-rates.php AUD Exchange Rates (1968 - 1970) Fixed It looks like good value on real estate might be between 2500 ounes and 10000 ounces. But look how much Melbourne housing has crashed against silver since 2003. We're already back to 1990 levels. 13 Years of gains (against silver) wiped out and still falling.
Ten thousand ounces in one fell swoop! Nice work... Did you sell a kidney to raise the cash? I admire your 'balls n all' mentality...
I cashed out of real estate ... I would have taken out a $10million loan to buy silver if it was possible ... (Imagine that now... $6million return costing about $200,000 in interest)
I'd say you're exceedingly pessimistic on silver. 1000 Oz will buy you an average family house before the RE market's next bull run...
Here's gold vs RE: http://www.bullionmark.com.au/gold-research/blog/2010/6/00/74-Gold-vs-Australian-Real-Estate.html We should get down to 100 Oz of gold for the average home => about 1000 Oz silver ...
Just saying what the charting shows. There is no instance since 1968 where the median Melbourne house sold for under 2400 ounces of silver. It's a sobering thought though, to realise that if the government and RBA can keep the housing market up at 2010 levels (they can not, but . . . ), then silver would have to be worth about A$550/oz to buy the median Melbourne house for 1000 ounces. Now you're sounding like Max Keiser! Go you good thing, go!
Legend House. I love these revisited threads. 10000 then is 12700+ ozs now. Hmmmm....................................
