Hi guys, we all talk about how we expect silver to go to the moon in the not too distant future, but how high do we really think it will go and what are our reasonings? I'll start the ball rolling....... I base my expectations of the possible future silver price off what I think the gold price will be and the GSR. I see gold going to between $5000 and $10000 an ounce (but closer to 10000) due to all the money printing going on at the moment and the expected QE to infinity and the GSR to be around 20 as silver and gold both come back into play in the world as proper money. This is in USD by the way. I expect the AUD to be worth less than USD long term, at probably 70 cents to the dollar. I think that in AUD silver might reach a high of $600 to $750 when we see the final bubbles burst, such as china, US debt and derivative bubbles. (I should really buy some more silver!)
When currencies go bust - who cares what its worth. I'm not interested unless I'm going to get significant attractive trades on real estate or income generating assets such as agricultural land or residential properties. When fiat currency goes down, I'm not going to swap my metals for plastic, paper notes or base metal coins. I'll be trading for someones house, car or wife (the latter was in jest I might add)
What money printing? I hear no humming of presses at the moment. No one will take on the debt so they cannot print the money.
If you google "negative interest rates", there's some recent interesting news articles. One investment manager postulates that possibly, the central banks will NOT print so as to purposely ensure that there is not enough physical currency for all, so that savers/ordinary folk will be forced to leave the bulk of their money in electronic form, where it can then be siphoned off by the government, using tricks like negative interest rates.
The final price will more likely be denoted in something other than USD. Agree will be much much higher than now, I think even when the bubble does burst and it crashes down to 10% of it highs it will still have more purchasing power than it does right now. I can't really see how you could loose buying it now while it's soo close to the mining cost. When I didn't have much debt I used to only worry about the purchasing power of Silver but since accruing more long term low interest debt to buy more metal then the nominal price does play a factor now. Maybe the purchasing power stays the same but the nominal price goes up 3 fold, if I had no debt then makes no difference but if I have debt against it I can sell 1/3 and then I got the other 2/3 of my Silver for free so the nominal price would matter then. I'm looking for Silver AU$70+ to start paying down debt (pending the political climate at the time) then most will be waiting out for the average house to be a 400 ounce swap.
I hope that your calculations for going into debt to purchase the metal work out for you. The longer things kick around the less real return you will get out of your investment. I think silver's volatile nature is a big call to go into debt for as opposed to purchases made with disposeable income.
Money Printing ... IE: money expansion.. the carbon tax is VERY expansive.. the government is giving out additional money, the whole PR of carbon tax must be billions.. all money we didnt already have in the system My salary has recently gone up (more money), My Rent and Energy have both gone up (expansive). This lavish labour picnic is going to involve big money. Sure the PRIVATE sector isnt getting any captial due to the MISALLOCATON of resources... When there is more money rolling around the system this will have upwards pressure on finite goods... so we should see real estate also increase as inflation incrementally robs people... As all the economics gurus are saying with artifically low interest rates banks are reluctant to lend, households and investors are reluctant to save and instead SPEND or invest in non-inflationary asset classes such as GOLD and Silver. Monetary expansion is certainly occuring.. this velocity expansion will carry over to ALL goods and service prices.. From what i can tell the only sector not experiencing price inflation is the fast moving consumer goods sector who have outsourced employment to 3rd world countries and are now in the mass-prodcution stage where costs of production are reduced through economies of scale... IE: tvs, laptops and phones, cars etc. Silver will go to the moon incrementally like everything else effected by an increase in M3 (money supply).. just as all finite goods steadily will rise with inflation.. so too will Silver. A to the moon boost may play out when the bullion banks have a bullion bank run... ie: too many bullion banks selling to many INTANGIBLE silver contracts and delivery of a mass allocation exposes there "nakedness"... if the deriative market is allowed to create FAKE supply of silver than they can control the price and so the whole market. (its really that easy). Only by showing that the emporer is naked will we see the true fundamental silver price ---- what will the PTB (PPT) go to to protect the US dollar and IMF's rigged currency market? I predict they will doanything to keep the paper currencies as king. Keep stacking and obey fundamentals, dont be detered by short term swings... trust your gut and get strong hands to ride the upwards bull movement! 1for1
Argentina again. The inflation year /year is 25 to 30% (2007 to 2012 each year. Total 150% aprox) The cds pay in pesos (national currency) 10% to 15% . In argentina we need to buy from brasil our currency (printed in brasil because here the casa de moneda not have the time to print the money we need) Now we are with a lot more of stagflation and two currency exchanges. Oficial 4.60 (banned for all) for uss Black market 6.30 for uss
'How high' is a fairly pointless discussion when you consider it will be in paper fiat currency. To put it simply, we are guessing how many it will eventually take to buy It's really a moot issue, wouldn't you say?
I'd like to put a public thank you out there to you Auspm. I've been away from the site for a bit, mainly as I was getting frustrated at the amount of utter dross that was getting posted - and noticing at times I was getting drawn into that. It's bloody refreshing to come back and read someones intelligent, succinct and educational posts.
Perfect example I use to illustrate currency debasement is quite simply this: Facts: This humble gold sovereign coin is 100 years old. This gold sovereign coin was worth 1 Great British Pound in 1912 (date of issue) To buy this today, you would be looking at 280-330 Great British Pounds. Taking numismatic premiums into account as it is technically an antique piece, this little coin is now worth 280 times more. Or if you are logical and understand currency debasement as I see it, that coin's pricing means that since the introduction of paper currency, the English/Great British Pound has devalued at least 280 times. Thats a currency devaluation of an average 280% per year. Frightened yet? Why not transform your hard earned paycheck into something with real intrinsic value, rather than notes or base metal coins that are continually declining in value (thanks inflation). Its been a cultural thing for my family for many years, stack your wealth, usually in gold. I've done it in the last 8 years, and its always seen me right. I'd sooner lose a few hundred or thousand dollars in a spot crash, than lose 40'000 dollars in a property crash by going along with the herd.
