Silver Spike...

Discussion in 'Silver' started by SilverSale, Jun 14, 2019.

  1. Arch

    Arch New Member

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    lets hope the ratio pushes for 80 shortly
     
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've observed moderate buying of silver bullion locally when silver price falls below $18, but I can't see how silver can rise above $20 unless gold rallies above $1600. Chicken and egg thing?
     
  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I thought the Fed will be hawkish and this would cause metals to correct. The Fed turned out to the hawkish but metals rose instead??
     
  4. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I still think we need to see more than $1520 to see it really change.
     
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  5. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Considering all possible info I expect to see USD $1350 gold. That would suggest $15.50 silver with a ratio of around 87. But I can’t see silver going past $16-$16.25. Which means the ratio will have to drop quite a bit.

    AUD/USD should retrace to 0.66 or lower.

    FYI these are just my speculative opinions based on multiple info feeds and simple chart analysis. I.e some fun consideration of the possibilities.
     
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  6. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Still hanging on for that correction but many who predicted it are now swinging towards the upside. Its been a quiet month considering the ride we had from 1800 AUD to 2350 before we settled here at 2200 AUD
     
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  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes I also feel that there is a possibility of further upswing. It would require a risk that we are not aware of.
    Looking at the global environment there now seem to be a quieting of many issues. Trade war between US and China although not resolved is less noisy. Trump needs things to settle down well before the election run up. The impeachment is there but I think this doesn’t have enough risk profile currently. Perhaps after it ramps up that might change but somehow I don’t think it will.
    There are a number of countries with substantial unrest but again none of them are currently considered major risks to global economies. Hong Kong, Chile, Venezuela, Iraq, Yemen and Syria to name a few. Iran hasn’t been in the news so much lately. I don’t see the US doing anything major until after the next election.
    Stock markets are on the up. Quantitative easing QE is happening and it seems like this will expand to more countries. Australia RBA has been setting up for this with all the talk about it.
    Chart wise the run up in gold has not had a major retrace. At some point we can expect a 50% retrace of the current run up. 1175-1560. That would make the retrace to about $1367. Looking at the early 2018 levels of just over $1350 this seems like the lower level imho.

    That’s my thinks and why I think we could see this retrace and why that specific level.

    Always interested to see contrary views.
     
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  8. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If only your crystal ball could tell you WHEN the retrace would happen, we would all be happy stackers :D:D
     
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  9. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sorry my prescience does extend that far :)

    If it did I probably would not be here chatting about 1 Troy grain bars.
     
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  10. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lower prices are possible but too late for me as I just bought a rectangle dragon for my anniversary next week. As always the price always dive soon after I bought. This time round it plunged in 3 hours. My best record so far.
     
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  11. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You have to be congratulated for such precise timing. Seriously I know the feeling very very well. Enjoy the anniversary.
     
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  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well I’m now almost immune since it happens almost all the time. I should have bought when Bullionnow had it for sale early this year. It was much cheaper then. Had been eyeing it since late last year but procrastinated since it is not a limited edition thing.

    Speaking of bullionnow, has anyone noticed a pattern in which whenever bulllionnow brings in a large batch of metals (gold dragons, silver pams kilos, platinum bars), the price goes up after that? The accuracy is way better than the “gurus” on youtube or seekingalpha.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2019
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  13. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There seem to be two underlying principles to the gold market:
    1. I just bought an ounce or two: Spot price undoubtedly falls within the hour
    2. I've been holding off buying and have money set aside to order: Spot skyrockets before Bullion Now opens

    I let all my mates know what situation I'm in day to day so that they can profit from how these principles drive the market.
     
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  14. milled

    milled Active Member

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    the other principle is for gold as it is for any established market - buy low and sell high. Gold went up earlier this year from 1750ish to 2300 at the peak. Buying at 2200 is risky for this reason, despite a natural tendency to see it up as a reason to buy in. Only in an established bull market where the drivers are still in force. Longer term it will go up unless something changes the sandbox, either by much more gold being available or the rules of ownership changing.

    Silver is relatively low now, at close to 2010 levels. But it has historically stayed low for a long time. Platinum looks undervalued. There's no end in sight to palladium's drivers being the preferred metal for exhaust hydrocarbon gas conversion with mining restricted to a few main locales.
     
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  15. milled

    milled Active Member

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    palladium has seen a steady multibag gain and is now literally worth more than gold. Because it too has gone up so much, the question is "What is the risk versus the return?"

    however, the fundamentals are different and still good, at least to hold up the price, so it comes down to what is the price point at which it there will be competition and the scientific/engineering R&D lag time before a cheaper alternative enters the market, as well as large scale adoption in the vehicle manufacturing lifecycle

    another point worth knowing - I was told this before I bought a single share and years before I bought metals - don't watch the day to day action or you will go mad

    Looking back, it was good advice!
     
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  16. SilverSale

    SilverSale Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    An interesting time in the market once again...

    VIX has settled back down to 12

    Gold has touched down on top of previous consolidation - should show significant support.

    Negative divergence occurring on major indexes.

    I believe we will likely see a bounce in the metals here.

    I'm also taking a short position on the SPX :)
     
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  17. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I can’t see too much support for $1450. Perhaps a delay for a week or two. I expect this downward path to continue through to February or thereabouts at least. There is a chance of a break through to lower levels (lower than my projected $1350) which would extend this quite a lot.
    Try to avoid FOMO investing.
     
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  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Which is more likely to collapse first? The stock market or the gold market? If you ask me, I’d prefer metals to stocks. Stocks can fall much more while the downside for gold is limited to 5%-10% from current levels.
     
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  19. Revils

    Revils Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Shares have done so well lately that if there's a correction and a flight out there will still be a tonne of money wanting to go somewhere.
     
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  20. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Can’t see a stock market fall in the current QE environment. There could be quite a bit of sideways action perhaps. If interest rates go up or QE slows down then that will trigger a fall. But next year there is an election in the US. They will be working very hard to keep things steady - ie as much QE as is required to achieve that. No big wars likely to start before December 2020.
    That leaves metals. The case for a big jump up is dependent on central bank buying and loss of value in currencies.
    Chart wise it seems like the current downward action could reverse short term but long term trends suggest a drop of $150 to $250 USD/oz. As mentioned in previous posts there is support at around $1350. That’s my forecast and reasoning for the next three months.

    Now I would say this will transpire over the next three months or so.
     
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