FYI - Over a dollar off the POS in less than a minute tonight... No prizes for guessing who orchestrated it, or timing in relation to Bernanke's expected announcement of some form of QE tomorrow
Re: 'So this confirms QE3 tomorrow.' No not necessarily - but hopefully you know by now that JPM, The Fed et al choose their smackdown timing carefully - presumably they'll be going long too after $hitting-out all those paper contracts to suppress the POS and support the Greenback, come tomorrow... I'm not sure how the USD'll react if Benny does announce Easing v3.0 - but I'm sure the stock markets will just love it.... From what I'm hearing most traders & analysts in the US expect some QE action, esp after last week's non farm payroll numbers. Greenback could strengthen temporarily or take a serious dive. I bought 2 silver longs - just a couple of hundred bucks each @ $2 a pip - right at the bottom of the smackdown tonight - now up 35% & 25% - going to roll 'em down the road towards Bernank's speech tomorrow. x
Care to elaborate, VRS? - I have just been buying physical silver to date, so no real idea how to go long on silver on the market here in Oz. I have a Commsec account if that helps. Any info or websites you could give to steer me in the right direction would be appreciated. Cheers, Au-
Agreed Silver - $1 (3%) in 15 minutes Gold - $18 (1%) in 20 minutes On no news that i am aware of... Not saying they weren't due for a pull back.. Gold held pretty staunch which is encouraging And at the time of writing (coming into Globex) they've recovered well I'm thinking this particular can smells a bit like QE FOMC likely going ahead with more easing - what size, shape and form that will take we will have to wait and see Could turn out to be just more promissory verbiage Another squirt pre-Ben is likely also IMHO
Silver hit the 50% level of the 25/04/11 high and 24/8/10 low it didnt have enough momentum to push through this so it had to retrace and expect more of a pushdown if it cant get through this mark, but if it can get through this level expect another big leg up. If you switch to a 1 day bar chart you will be able to see it started at 33.503 run up to 34.087 couln't break the level and crashed down (which is a very justified move), as we speak it is coming back now maybe to retest that level. Hope for a break through people
Yes, I use eToro - Web Trader & Open Book (which is a bit like Facebook - it allows you to follow/copy the best traders on a month, 3 mth & 6 mth view - pretty radical idea). You can get a feel of the platform with a practice account where you have a virtual $10k to play with, to familiarise, which is what I did at first - but now I can either copy trades which I like which show up as they happen on my notifications stream, place my own, or if I see prices are moving/about to move in any particular direction you can jump onto the momentum, which is what I did last night. I missed riding last night's POS fall down... so I did the obvious thing and rode it back up. I'm going to keep these open because I think the announcement of QE if it happens later today will boost the POS upwards. (That said, you can sometimes get converse logic happening where eg: because QE3 is announced, equity markets rise, and the US$ follows suit, if only temporarily - like what's been happening in the last month with the Euro, on its relentless rise - despite the massive increase in liquidity - that means a currency becomes worth less relatively doesn't it? Well there y'go... which is another reason why you need to be disciplined.) I should've opened out longs on silver when the price was $27 - that'd have meant a 700 pip rise at 50c/$1/$2/$5/$10 or whatever per pip... (You could just as easily go long on oil say if Iran kicks off and threatens the Straits of Hormuz... or if you see another opportunity) I opened 2 longs, one at $32.68 (@ normal leverage) when the POS had just bottomed, the other @ $32.93 (at higher leverage) as POS confirmed to me that it was moving back up again, on a rebound. You just have to have an idea & feel for the momentum of these events and give it a punt. You can also leverage the trades, so 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x but obviously your risk level then becomes an issue if prices move quickly, and can move against you. If you stick to the low or medium leverage trades and only punt a small % of your total pot, stick to a stop loss, be objective & disciplined you can trade any of the major currency pairs or gold, silver, oil and any major index whether it's rising or falling - but it's not for everyone - you have to spend time watching the market if you do your own trades. The Open Book experience is totally different though - it's very social & operates a lot like FB - really cool concept. If anyone wants to sign-up email me and I'll split the $100 bonus I'd get as introducer with you, plus you also get a 10% bonus to your equity when you open an account. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wu1w5gYgT8[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb-tRQ1QZmo[/youtube] Anyhow, this is what happened after el smackeroo: This is the progress so far this morning - it's not a huge amount, but it's worth having - if I do that six or seven times a week I'd be happy, as a sideline. Cheers (& DYOR!), VRS
Yes, you're getting it TG Basically the market will do 3 things: 1. Nothing (Ain't going to happen!) 2. POS will rise because the World will understand why printing paper money, and lots of it, is no good for the US$ - (but great for PM's, institutional shorters allowing) 3. POS will fall because the World (and its dog) will run about proclaiming 'WE'RE SAVED... THERE IS NO PROBLEM ANY MORE - DEBT NEVER WAS AN ISSUE BECAUSE BROTHER BERNANKE'S WAVED HIS MAGIC STUMP AND PRINTED LOTS MORE TRUSTWORTHY PAPER DOLLARS BACKED BY THE HONOURABLE (AND TRUSTWORTHY) US FED! GOLD & SILVER?!?! PFFFFFFT'' I know which side I'm on! x
That open book seems pretty good, iv never seen that before... Iv been using GFT and found them very good so far because it allows me to trade basically anything i want from CFD's on stocks, commodities, curriencies, futures contracts....... Yeah my leveage is set at 1% so extremely high, but i put alot of factorers into play to limit the risk.
Might be in for another popndrop ALA ESM if ben gives us hopium or even a small QE3. I have a feeling the market wants ctrl-P to the max or temper tantrum
Yes TG, I totally agree - I think the US market's 80% wanting QE right now. I don't know whether we'll blip to $31's though - this kinda paints the picture - current trend is still up despite retreating to $27 a few months back... Saying that, the whole reason that PM's have risen the last few wks is because everyone's been mentioning QE might happen hasn't it? So maybe the market does have its head screwed on right - we shall see later today I guess.
I just had a look at the charts from last night: 1. POS started rising strongly exactly at 5.30pm Aussie time - check what that was in New York & Brussels, ie: automatically triggered from US I think... overnight... computer driven... 2. Trigger for the raid was $34US/oz, which coincidentally (!) was reached at exactly 6pm Aussie time Funny that.
Mineweb on effect on PM prices if more QE happens today & forward... (successful & burnt shorts allowing) http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855 'With the Fed pledging to do everything possible to prevent the economy from falling into another recession, analysts at Blanchard and Company see gold attaining the $1,800 per ounce level in the next 30-60 days, with higher prices possible by the end of the year. "Whether the Fed introduces a third round of quantitative easing, or some other form of monetary policy in the form of QE3, they will again be creating dollars out of thin air and devaluing our currency," says Blanchard Chairman and CEO for Blanchard and Company, Donald W Doyle Jr. "When that happens, gold has nowhere to go but up, and it will go up rapidly."
Im with IG markets but that open book feature is cool. Will be watching Ben live tonight/early tmrw morning, just need to clarify what time exactly. VRS, do you trade during a regular week or only on announcements? Just announcements for me as Im just a beginner and sticking my strict trading rules.
Hey VRS check out USD/JPY and take alook at the massive resistance at 78.00, iv been waiting for days to go short on this but waiting for the drop...... Come on US Dollar fall in value
