Vote now - http://www.silverstackers.com/polls/ The subject of being able to track or forecast sentiment came up over a few(!) beers yesterday evening. As an experiment, I've decided to run a trial for a month or two - a weekly poll to gauge the sentiment on Silver Stackers with a simple question - Will silver end the week higher or lower? Poll runs until Monday - the question is whether the closing price for the coming week is higher or lower than the closing price the preceeding week. For simplicity it refers to USD to avoid currency risk etc. Each week, the poll will be reset - and the forum's sentiment scored against actual spot movements - for example if 60% of respondents think spot will be higher, and it is - the sentiment was correct. If spot was lower, the sentiment was wrong. I'm hoping over time to build up a profile of how accurate this "group sentiment" is at forecasting weekly market movements - I'll get a few simple graphs up that can be easily maintained. I've literally spent about 5 minutes throwing this together - I'll be looking to a more permanent solution if it gets enough responses and appears to be a worthwhile activity each week. Vote away!
since this forum is getting rather popular, do you think this poll would ever have the ability to actually influence the silver spot price if enough people are voting? upon re-reading that, it seems like thats the friday night beer talking. or is it actually feasible?
Sincerely doubt it. Might have a localised impact on short term premiums if 99% vote "higher" one week though. But on actual spot? Not a chance.
GP, I'll vote in your poll if you vote in mine. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-10284-its-poll-time.html Well, the next one anyway.
Ok, higher or lower? Would choose stable (for a little while before a drop) but it's not one of the options - so ....... lower.
HI, Not sure how it works - has that poll ended now and how did the prediction go against reality? It would be good to have more polls running - I'm sure we can come up with some topics - lots of imagination on this forum!
The poll ran over the weekend, and is for the coming week. Outcome won't be known until spot trading finishes at the end of this week. Right now the sentiment is that silver will end the week lower. I want to build a trend over a period of time to see how the forum's weekly outlook forecasting skills stack up against reality.
The outcomes of the poll's predictions will be known at close of trade tomorrow morning (Australian time) - at the moment spot is only down about 20c USD on the beginning of the week, so it could go either way. The poll will be reset tomorrow as well for the coming week (will advise when).
G.P. my prediction is that the poll will have random success/accuracy at best i.e. you may as well flip a coin to see if silver will end the week higher or lower.
Well that's the point of the exercise. It might turn up some interesting trends - maybe as a group the forum is crap at predicting prices and gets it wrong 75% of the time, which would make it a pretty good contrarian indicator!
