Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by SliderC, May 11, 2020.
Going on past experience.... about Aug/Sep this year.
We should all sell NOW!
August before any dealers are going to have Perth Mint bars in stock...wonder what prices will be like then...3 months of enlightenment, talks of printing, with no stock available to buy...
I really do wonder what will happen when industrial demand kicks back in, willl there be a run on silver supply or are the mines stockpiling through this period and will be sitting on a big surplus ready to supply industry at cheap prices...
I also wonder, the oil price fell through the floor when demand fell and a price war started...that hasnt happened with other commodities like silver...feels like it should have.
hell no, well not at current premiums.
there is very little manufacturing going on right now, so no silver is being used, When availability of bullion returns there is a very good chance that manufacturing that uses silver wont be back in full swing, So cant see the price sky rocketing. the premium will go down. Im holding out for then. FOMO is the worst trait a stacker can have.
Ive sold a few hundred ounces for the current stupid money, which made a few grand off which Ill hold untill availability returns and that premium dies in the arse. which is will.
the only reason silver is even at $23 an ounce is because the refineries and the supply is down.
if the supply was normal Silver would be in the f'n toilet with this lack of manufacturing.
so the Virus forcing closures on silver mines, and refineries has been silvers saving grace. other wise if they were operating as normal the price would have crashed big time now. It is after all a commodity.
So if you think supply will return before Manufacturing gets back to where it was before the virus then you would be crazy to ignore that and pay these premiums.
Not sure what's going to happen.
If coins and bars are dribbled in premiums could stay very high.
If gold takes off, it will probably drag silver with it.
If the Aussie dollar drops, silver will be more expensive, if it gains.......................
What often gets forgotten, Silver is a commodity, It needs tobe used in manufacturing, and manufacturing is closed through out most of the world. the only thing that is going togo up is premiums on physical. and those premiums will drop like a bomb once it becomes available again. Silver would have to raise allot to cover these premiums and that aint going to happen while manufacturing isnt running at the levels it was before the virus.
That's what the smart money would be doing at these premiums.
From what I've read, oil is a little different because of storage and supply issue. Storage is limited and there was fear of people playing the May and Junes oil futures that they need to take delivery of the oil when there was no where to store it. Since you can't dump the oil into the sea, it becomes a liability instead.
Supply wise, it's not possible to just turn off the taps for many types of oil fields without damaging the infrastructure, e.g. pipes freezing over, etc. Interestingly, shale oil can be shut off easily and then turned back on.
I think so at these premiums, very good chance when supply returns you will buy it back much cheaper and walk away with much more silver.
Just have to wait a few weeks thats all.
From memory, the spot price during the last shortage in 2008 increased by 25% - 30% from beginning to end!
Someone here might have better data
Dont tell court jester this. He says it's cheaper now!
That's ok, CJ is a character, he's not a bad bloke really and he has called the market correctly for many years.
He's been correct regarding silver moving sideways as far as the spot price goes in AUD.
Although I mentioned a few coins that are doing well, there's plenty that folk have been holding onto for many years that aren't doing well, that money
may have been better off invested elsewhere perhaps.
Having said that Johnny, you are correct regarding many of the coin prices, they do have huge premiums and look to stay that way.
Silver is definitely not All Silver. As you know, many folk put all of the silver in one category "Silver" but that's not accurate or fair.
Often I hear folk say, buy the cheapest silver, get more ounces; well that might be a strategy for some, but some folk may find that silver and for that matter gold
can have further upside if folk choose a coin that has potential just as folk pick a stock, some will do well and some not so good.
I really hope everyone can come to terms with each others opinions and be nice to one another because we can all learn from one another.
Best to you and CJ.
Your 100% right Holdfast, if your not picking the bottoms in silver, if spot has not risen, then those investments, and the opportunity cost of holding them, could have been seen as a complete failure.
Buying generic, close to spot silver will also result in generic, close to spot sale prices in the future (perhaps higher sales prices in shortages/crisis)
If however, you bought limited mintage, semi/numismatic bullion, perhaps at a premium to spot, you may have seen your investment grow based on the rarity/popularity of the purchase.
Commonly I see an investment strategy referring to the necessity of a "foundation" stack, which includes your base bullion position, perhaps generic coins or bars purchased close to spot and kept to "protect your wealth" in the event of inflation and a spot price increase. However, another element of the strategy includes a position in a numismatic "trading" stack, which is purchased with the intention of reselling into the market perhaps in a 2-5yr window, with profits put back into your "foundation" stack.
I feel like this is a good strategy for investing in metals which gives you a "stack weight" position as well as a means to actually profit from your stack.
Once again, the SS forum has proved to a strangely good reverse indicator at least for silver. Just when everyone is about to throw in the towel, silver suddenly does a "I am still alive" action. It appears to me that physical silver has bottomed in March. I still think that paper may still fall though, for 1 last time before we say bye bye to sub-US$20 silver.
The question is what will we see on this forum if silver finally starts doing a US$2 a day spike come August/September and the dealers still don't have physical stock.
Are we going to see wtb threads like "Want to buy 10kg at 15% over spot."?
I've always believed that silver is a "pre-emp buy". I buy so that I won't get caught in a FOMO.
Your always learning when your an investor, particularly in Silver. We live in interesting times however I have seen this before and it ALWAYS "feels different this time". Im not saying this time it doesnt, again it feels different! but hey, dont take the last few days price action as a sign we are heading to the moon, take all things into consideration.
Here are the last few times its been "different this time"...but it does feel different this time doesnt it!!
I think the fact that we have pushed 26 3 times in the past 6 months is bullish though, and you know...demand vs supply >.>
You're right but when I bought gold on various occasion in 2018 between $1200 to $1320, it's just like silver today, ding dong, ding dong, trying to breakout but fall back. I remembered the Dents and Jim Rogers at that time were talking about sub-$1000 gold at that time and between Sept to October 2018, few will discount that possibility. Most buyers at that time bought gold for long term insurance and some were just gold bugs or were just coin collectors.
In all investments, the daily/monthly movements and charts always sucks at the bottom, what's important is the long term chart - 30-50 years.
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