** I believe we will see $16 silver soon... Dated 3/26/2014 ** Silver @ $25 by the end of July early August That about sums it up..
GSR has just increased a couple of percent. If silver is lagging, we should open with $22.50 on Monday morning.
For a price judgement better use what people do instead of what they say/predict. Because, the former is what will cost them money if they're wrong, the latter at worst just reputation of a forum nick Date Amount futures positions of 5000 ounces on the end of that day. Spot price end of that day. 22/07/2014 58347 $20.860 15/07/2014 58696 $20.760 08/07/2014 58018 $21.070 01/07/2014 51955 $21.000 24/06/2014 42987 $20.670 17/06/2014 22838 $19.640 10/06/2014 14322 $19.210 03/06/2014 9640 $18.780 05/02/2013 51946 $31.76 04/12/2012 58514 $33.04 02/10/2012 57840 $34.61 28/02/2012 44593 $37.12 19/04/2011 52692 $44.22 There is not a single occasion where such a high futures position was followed by a bigger price increase. Rather the opposite happened. See the green or red+blue trendlines below the price chart: And that's just logic, for two reasons: 1) A futures contract, in general, is a derivative that is used to hedge against price changes. Its attached account compensates for losses on what is hedged, at the cost of giving away eventual windfall gains. Basically it is a method to be 'sure' of a price you gonna need to pay, or gonna need to receive, regardless where the price is driven to by then. 2) For silver, the average of the net total amount futures contracts fluctuation, is high relative to worlds total supply/demand. The latter sits around 1000 Moz, for ex, the latest reported total net position of 58347 is a 58347 x 5000 = 291 Moz. That is thus almost 1/3 of worlds total supply/demand. That is BIG. This price risk is caused by short term temporary buyers. Those that buy silver to sell it abit later, grab the profit, put the profit elsewhere. So if you see that such a big amount silver gets hedged against price changes, you know that the hedgers detected lotsa purchases, by those short term temporary buyers, that drove the price up, and due to the short term, represent a big price risk in the near future (ie the period over which they want compensation for losses due to eventual price changes) Take the latest (and also current) price: $20.86, and its position 58347 It's the same price as on: 24/06/2014 42987 $20.670 18/03/2014 35900 $20.84 12/11/2013 22629 $20.67 If you take into account begin to end in the chain of events on the market, such a futures contract hedge works by inflicting buyers a higher price, and sellers a lower price. That's where the compensating money (that undoes the losses on what is hedged) origins from. So it might be an idea to think twice before adding silver to the stack in a period where the hedge is that big. Considering the high % of the hedge relative to the total demand/supply, the silver you purchase has in its price that 'compensating money', your cost, included. Or in other words: the share of the forward/future price in the spot/cash price, is high. Since 99% of those contracts don't end in delivery of the underlying silver, it means that your money flies away from the silver market. Byebye! Sniff Sniff! With you ending up with less silver than you should have had, and in a future less dollars than you put in. This was Radio Pirocco! It's 7 o'clock, on a promising saturday! We"ll get back to you soon! With more news and with Fred, who will provide a few gardening tips!
I predict that the price will go up and down (fluctuate) for a very, very, very long time. More seriously though, as for long term trends, I'm convinced we will eventually see a bull market for metals. .
