Initiated a short position @19.8 USD/oz. Silver is NOT ready to challenge @20 USD/oz in my opinion. Consolidation around 19 is absolutely necessary in order to have a solid base for midterm uptrend. The good news is, critical USD18.5 is behind us; headline resistance will become support. I am looking forward to cover my short position once the support is tested in the near future.
Chart at the top of my page says Silver is US$19.77 Would not wager on it NOT getting to US$20. Who is to know what the smarties and their computers will do? OC
Major stock indexes hang near 10-15 years peaks. And show double and triple peaks. The futures share in the silver price is 500 Moz, also a record on such long term, ordered but never delivered since it's just for hedging the cash market. That's US $7 price dollars. So actually, in the real, delivered world, the silver price is now $13. It's about time for a next big crisis (september?), and be sure most of that position will be dumped. So, you mean the down-again part of the parabola?
I agree that silver needs to consolidate, but shorting within a clear uptrend is a recipe for disaster. You're swimming against the tide....
Isn't that last the single big rule in frontrunning others? Buy when most sell. Sell when most buy. Swimming with the tide is the easiest, and easy stuff seldom gets rewarded.
Being a successful contrarian investor or trader is not as simple as opposing the prevailing trend. It is about identifying excesses in market sentiment and opposing *those*. Fear and greed will push marker prices to extremes and "overshoot" reasonable price expectations. But still, the prevailing trend needs to be respected, especially if it is fresh and strong like this one is IMHO because the swings against the trend are much smaller and harder to get the timing right. I will oppose a trend if it is long in the tooth, overextended and being driven only by technicals, momentum and sentiment (but no longer supported by fundamentals) but this isn't one of those. Each to their own I suppose. Good luck leon.....
I wouldn't be shorting any Pm the trend is up & there is momentum as well. Of course there could be a short term drop but, IMHO the trend is up so very risky unless it is a trivial amount of money involved. Good luck with it.
It's a big psychological barrier and I'm sure there's a lot of stop entry shorts hanging around the high $19.90's. It's a cheap bet, you put in 2500oz in at $19.96 with a stop at $20.06 so for $250 you get a pretty big upside if it bumps it's head around there and drops to $19.50 or lower. That's a pretty good risk return setup, better if loose 500oz every 5 cent move below 19.50 you could end up with some serious money to switch to long when you see consolidation. It's my aussie short position I'm more interested in. I'm DCAing up, but it's getting a little big, I just don't see it sustaining above .75.
Election coverage at the moment is suggesting we might be heading for a hung parliament. That ought to kick the AUD down a bit
According to Hugh Hendry to be a successful contrarian investor you need to oppose the mass sentiment, but actually be going with the trend. Eg. Over the past few years all the pundits (ah hum Jim Rogers) have been shorting the US Treasuries, but the trend is actually up. So if you were long US Treasuries you would've been a very successful contrarian.
a hung parliament,not a bad consolation prize i reckon the aud down - the usd up = easy $$$$ prediction - gold $2000 aud per ounce by the end of this new financial year - quote me if you like/dare
The RBA meets on Tuesday as well. The general view is that the RBA will cut in August so the forward guidance should push the AUD down.
Don't worry about Leon, he will just start a new thread or edit a post here and there and next thing you know it will be like he never actually made another bad call. Then his mate (or 2nd account, you be the judge) can post something about eggs andwe can repeat tthe cycle Plus monopoly money is all Leon risk, he never actually puts real money on his predictions. He would be broke by now if he did!
