Do you need psychic abilities to read figures on websites? These are silvers decade-average prices: 197x $5.3394 198x $8.0919 +51.55% 199x $4.8014 -10.01% 200x $8.73748 +63.64% 201x $26.1252 +389.30% Note how 199x and 200x were just a copycat of 197x and 198x. That's what stockpiling, and destockpiling, does to a price trend. Stockpiling is a "bull" market. Destockpiling is a "bear" market. These are the coin & bars sales figures of the last decade, in Moz: 2004 -53.0 Bars -10.6 2005 -51.5 Bars -11.5 2006 -48.7 Bars -8.9 2007 -51.2 Bars -11.5 2008 -187.7 Bars -122.4 2009 -87.9 Bars -9.1 2010 -146.1 Bars -46.7 2011 -212.6 Bars -94.3 2012 -139.3 Bars -46.6 2013 -245.6 Bars ? Total2004-2012 Coins&Medals: -616.4 Total2004-2012 Bars: -361.6 Total2004-2013 Coins&Bars: 1223.6 Note the much bigger (multiplied) figures of the last half). That's stockpiling. The sequence goes like this: bull > bear > bull > bear. Not bull > bull > bull and not bear > bear > bear. Zero psychic abilities were used to buy at $30. It was stupidity. A good decision on a shorter time basis, can be a wrong decision on a longer time basis. I bought silver at $30, good decision on the year 2011 term (much bigger stupidities that year) but plain wrong decision on the 20xx term. To word it like John Rothchild in 1998 in his "The Bear Book": those that buy near the end of a bull need up to 4 decades to break even in mathematical terms. In real terms (purchasing power) they never break even. Bears' talk is never popular. Bears are hated, not for what they do, but for their public negative talk when others didn't yet finish "unloading". For the obvious reason. Zero animals were harmed for this post. Zero psychic abilities were used for this post. Are you such hater?
Hmmm LME closed due to a bank holiday, precious metals spike.. anecdotal evidence of manipulation much?
No sense now you make, Reply earlier post coin 19th century you ignore. See the future not you do. Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering May the force be with you. Hole in your analysis there is. On modern coin bullion products too focused you are. Answer my earlier point you did not. Stop yoda talking like try you must.
You have holes in your supposed-widescreen. The price mechanism takes into account the net sum of all trading. If Johnny Fear sells 100 "19th century coins" to Johnny Anger then this trades net effect on the price is zero. Only the net sum of all Johnny trading, the net remainder of all ounces sold minus all ounces bought, alters the price, the surplus or deficit of "19th century coins", or whatever coins from whatever year century or millennium. Because that surplus or deficit ounces demanded/supplied will need to be met along the supply chain, the monitored market, and the price mechanism. Then, "scrap". Every year more of those "19 century coins" end up as such. What remains of them, after a century and more? For every such coin I see for sale somewhere, I see a hundred and more modern bullion ones for sale by another. What does this say about their % of the present total? Scrap recycling, is present in my "focus". It's just part of the provided data. And third, I compared two points in time. A pivot year (2003), pivot because there a price trend started, with now, and ongoing. Your "19th century coins" could be (or were) just as part of the story in 2003 as in 2014. My focus is the same focus as the price mechanism. What Thomson Reuters "measures". Why expanding a focus to what net-results to zero towards the supply chain? May the outdated force leave you, and the present force be with you.
"For every such coin I see for sale somewhere, I see a hundred and more modern bullion ones for sale by another. " Incorrect you are. Old coins are extremely common in Europe and far....far more common than new bullion products. This is not unsurprising given the number minted. Not just 19th century but 20th century also a classic example being the 50 Franc hercule which is traded widely in France. Your theory regarding modern bullion forming a stockpile which would act to undermine an increase in silver price is plain wrong. If it was correct the hunt brothers could never have been able to do what they did given the quantity of 19th/20th century coinage about in 1980. Your thesis has been examined and is flawed. Begin again. As it underpins your claim to 'know' the coming decades of the silver market I say you definitely can't tell the future. You have put a lot of work into it and I appreciate that but if you pause and think 1)Modern bullion coinage is a recent phenomena as a % of silver demand (it is a 'post photography' demand element) 2)Silver currency coinage has been minted for 200 years+ and a vast quantity is still about (way more than modern bullion coinage, this is obvious) 3)The 'stockpile' as you think of it did not stop price rises in 1980 or 2011 and probably won't next time 4)Silver powder for industrial use is the dominant part of silver demand and this is the important element not bullion coins 5)Silver prices are very susceptible to demand side or supply side shifts and no one knows the future. I am genuinely looking forward to your next theory because given your love of data you may actually come up with something interesting. This 'stockpile' viewpoint is not it.
The "Yoda talk" or is that "Joda" is common among those of us who speak English as a secondary language to the language of our birth. As one who deplores the politically correct bullshit which lamely attempts to limit freedom of expression I should be happy that people here can delight in taking the piss out of some one based on ethnicity or nationality but as I too have been subjected to this kind of ridicule I still find it childish and very poor form.
1)English is not my first language, I have been ripped on for my failings in both it and other languages when learning them, in fact I have been literally slapped around the head. 2)Deal with it. 3)Learn to speak coherent English OR post in your native language (so it may be *clearly* understood) (you and I seem to manage...thank you Evelyn Waugh). 4)You are absurdly oversensitive 5)Star wars day is May the 4th. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/04/entertainment/what-is-star-wars-day-feat/ 6)You suffer from delicate floweritis which can develop into full blown political correctness I have included the below clip. I recommend you watch it repeatedly until you cease to be offended. You may then progress to the great outdoors. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6EaoPMANQM[/youtube] If you know anymore easily offended people please bubble wrap them and place them in secure storage because the real world is not a safe place for them. May always the force be with you.
I occasionally see a native English speaker who knows no other languages criticize someone's grasp of English as a second language. It makes me think about the level of ignorance and myopia required to do something like that. Truly mind boggling.
Really? Try learning French or Japanese and see the reaction you get if you have a poor accent or grammar. While on that subject any idea what May 4th is before we burst into collective politically correct tears? Yes...star wars day. At while you are regretting having missed celebrating it consider transcribing some of Ps posts into a more understandable and legible form.
My "For every such coin I see for sale somewhere, I see a hundred and more modern bullion ones for sale by another. was just a report of what I saw and see for sale. I started buying silver in 2011. After my first big bullion purchases I decided to buy those old coins. I couldn't find enough to "shoot" my euro's. Far from. Bullion on the other hand can be bought in any quantity, and not just from business dealers. I mentioned that several times on this forum. I even said that if I had have the 90% junk available, that the only bullion I would have had, had been some specialties I like for a number of reasons (few kinds of lunars, some rounds with designs I particularly like). But those old coins weren't for sale in the needed quantities. Even just a fraction. Your "old coins" have been minted for 200 years+, and also scrapped for 200 years+, and ceased to be produced decades ago. That 30 gram 0.900 50FF Hercule coin (I have a couple dozens of those) was about the last such coin in Europe. Meaning that the same that applies now in 2015, applied in 2003 too. Something that sits on both sides of a comparison, can be eliminated. Your post is 7 versions of Denial. That's all there is, you didn't even begin, Yoda. The silver price trend of 2003-now wasn't due to changing amount industrial silver powder, Yoda. The Hunt brothers weren't alone buying silver in 1980, there was a broad "stockpiling/investment" run on silver then, Yoda. Just like now, and since a stockpile that doesn"t rot always gets sold again, it undoes the price trend it caused when bought. Nevertheless, feel free to ship me your stack, I've no problem with donated instead of sold silver.
If you drift through French or Belgian pawn shops or bullion dealers the most common coins are from the reign of Napoleon III or twentieth century coins like the 70s silver Hercule or earlier gold rooster. Any French bullion dealer will sell them and there are equally large amount of the Nap III silver coins. I don't actually see modern bullion coins in places like happy cash or the windows of dealers. Even UK sovereigns will be more readily available. There is no way you could say there was not an immense stockpile of silver coinage when the hunt brothers struck. How come as you would call it this 'stockpile' did not keep the price down? You place way to much emphasis on modern bullion and not silver powder (which is the price is going to move demand side is where it will be at). Anyway if you want bucket loads of Hercules let me know and I'll set you up with some dealers..I prefer them to modern bullion in general. Personally I'd say it dwarfs modern bullion and there is no way you can prove otherwise...neither can I disprove your thesis that they have been mostly recycled.....there are way more old coins about in hold hoards and dealers then you realise.. However if you were correct in your theory the hunt brothers could *not* have lifted prices as all this vast quantity of old coinage would at that juncture "destockpiled" and prevented a price rise.....it did not.
The only old coins I've seen over these 4 years at bullion dealers were 2 kilo - bags Dutch 72% junk at 1 dealer, and I've seen them for sale, go, sold back, go, in a series cycles, making clear that people tend to buy those for a quick buck based on short term price fluctuations not for long term stacking. That's it, at dealers. And at nondealers, as I said: occasionally a small lot, very rare a big lot (over those 4 years, I had 2 big lots. With "big" then in terms of the 90% junk world, being 10% of the bullion for sale world (and I could have bought way more bullion from nondealers if I had have the euro's to do so). You name 2 decades flat price while other prices rose alot, "not down"? And it wasn't the Hunt Brothers alone, as said there was a broad run on silver then. With as prime cause the high inflation during the 198x. Was the silver price driven from $5 to $50 and back to $15 due to your industrial power? No Sir Yoda, it wasn't. Check the supply/demand categories, the total of industrial demand (that since last years figures includes photography) was quite stable. "Investment" on the other hand, showed huge increases. Silver ETF's came into existence only during this price trend. The high coin and bar sales dito. You place way too much emphasis on powder. Don't change my words. I didn't say that the Hunt brothers purchases didn't lift the silver price. I said that the Hunts were not all but a part. That's also what SilverInstitute literally states on its site, probably because of sources with same figures (so consistent). The Hunts are falsely claimed as major / sole cause. They weren't. About bucket loads of Hercules, I bought the 50 FF more due to the lack of the 18xx year 25 gram 0.900 coins. I like those very much, coins that circulated for a very long time (latin monetary union) as daily purchases money. The 196x 197x French story was more like a gimmick, the French had some years of serious inflation and devaluation, and some politicians decided to bring back trust in coinage by minting again silver coins, but since the silver price rose alot, circulation soon ceased and the story ended as fast as anyone including those politicians could expect. So it's not like that I'm particularly after the 50 FF Hercule. A 25 gram version was minted in the late sixties, and the first with the design a century earlier, it's probably the most spreaded of this junk, and tends to be also the cheapest, probably for above mentioned reasons. The best looking old coin I find the Leopold I (but hefty premium) and especially Leopold II, common years 1867-1876. Those are my first choice, and if not avail I move "down" to other, with the Hercule as last / least (relatively) wanted. At the moment (since dec 2014) I suspended buying silver anyway. My euro's are weak, and weak means buy/hold them. Considering the silver stock growth I don't see silver as weak, even not at $15. Not my idea, but simply what those on the futures market seem to think, based on what they see in the underlying cash market.
"The 196x 197x French story was more like a gimmick, the French had some years of serious inflation and devaluation, and some politicians decided to bring back trust in coinage by minting again silver coins, but since the silver price rose alot, circulation soon ceased and the story ended as fast as anyone including those politicians could expect." They all got hoarded which is what I am on about so they tend to be near uncirculated! .....but we have talked that out and I'll agree to disagree. I know you love your 'stockpile' theory. For a Dutchie you are very deft with the yodaspeak......deliberate it is. Amuse me that does. Source: Aye in Euros we are well off with them this year. If I ever find that pile at the bottom of the ocean and am selling I'll let you know because there are a few of those Leo IIs in there...for the benefit of other readers......we are talking about this kind of coinage..... Italian 5 Lire -1870s 90.00% Belgium 5 francs 1873-76 90.00% French 10 franc 1960-70 90% French 5 franc 1960-66 83.50% French 5 Franc 1870s 90% and of course the 50 Franc 74-79 90% There is an 83.50% you may have as well Belgium 250 francs 1976 - nice coin. Why do you fancy the Leo II particularly? I like them all. The 50 Franc is very liquid which is why I like it. The great thing about all these for me is they are not on alibaba..... I particularly like Napoleon I 5 Franc silver coinage but that is a numismatic interest nothing to do with silver.
Personally, I was not offended in the least, It would seem neither was Pirocco for that matter, and as I clearly stated I am no champion of political correctness. Perhaps, as far as being offended, you should take your own advice. I was merely attempting to point out that such personal attacks, while occasionally effective in the right measure, more often appear to be a desperate cover for a failing argument. This is very poor form and detracts from an otherwise intelligent conversation, however, if you wish to continue harming your credibility by all means, don't let me hold you back. May the farce be with you always.
