Ryan Jordan named subject of this article in 2011 Silver IS The new Gold. ....As a final point of fact, the above ground stockpile of silver- around 22 to 25 billion ounces and mostly jewelry and silverware at this point- has not changed much over the last half century. (Mind you, at the moment less than 1 billion are silver coins or bullion.) However, the above ground stockpile of gold has grown substantially from under 1 billion to nearly 7 billion ounces over the same time frame. Beside the fact that the above ground ratio of all silver to gold is less than 4 to 1 (and not 50: 1 as currently expressed in the price), the trend in physical gold and silver is clearly toward parity, or at least something close to it. ... Is bold sentence correct information? (At least Ryan Jordan have written book from Silver - Silver, The peoples metal) ...This is an important point: the silver market does not need any new "investors" for the price to go higher- it simply requires people holding paper silver (which is plentiful) to try to convert it into physical (which is scarce).... http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-jordan-silver-is-the-new-gold
No, it's the producing population part that does. I rather prefer to depend on those. Stacking gold because central banks did/do so too, heh, no thanks. Look at those that recommend gold. In one post they suggest to buy gold because governments institutions do so. In another post they blame governments institutions for leasing/selling gold. Heh?
This is not true though, because the Comex futures markets silver position sits near to zero, only about 40 Moz (end juni even just 20,5 Moz), while worlds annual supply is 1040 Moz and even US Mint ASE sales alone in the world, so far this year, is about 30 Moz. We have seen last year Comex positions of 300 Moz. So there is almost no paper silver at the moment, and even if they want (and most of the time, they don't), they can't 'convert' what they don't have. The silver market does need new "investors" (and/or production drop/higher production costs) for the price to go higher. To bring back $35 without paper silver, it would require US Mint sales to tenfold. Not sure if that's realistic considering current general price inflation. See, stackers learnt to not be -that- stupid anymore. Me included. And that's a good thing. If the money for nothing club rushes back in and drives price again to $25 or so, let them go alone, so that they can only drain off eachother to the void, like a bunch wolves without sheeps, instead of us stackers.
Gold 1:100 2009 Silver 1:33 (Today 1:100-500) In fact, since 2009 the ratio of paper silver to physical silver has increased fourfold from approximately 8 times to almost 33 times, where it stands today. http://www.munknee.com/sprott-shocking-shenanigans-in-paper-vs-physical-silver-market The same is true of silver, but according to analysts such as Eric Sprott and the National Inflation Association, the paper to physical silver ratio is much higher than it is for gold. http://righteousinvestor.com/tag/sprott-physical-gold-trust/ Lets assume it is only 1:33. That means that it is enough that 3-4% takes delivery from paper to physical. And if it is 1:500 it means that only 0,2% is enough. Ryan is right, or have I misunderstood something?
Don't know - how could anyone know for sure ? It certainly isn't 50 to 1 - more likely somewhere around 15 to 1 (ratio used many years ago) or perhaps 10 to 1 What does it matter though ? Platinum is much, much rarer than gold and only sells for approximately the same price. Palladium is even rarer than platinum and sells for half or less Value is determined by demand and supply, not just supply
Ryan have written book about silver with David Morgan. I assume he knows what he is talking about. Can anyone find reasonable proof that his estimation is too far from correct? What does it matter though ? I will answer to this later.
OK, lets stay in the subject. Is information below this right or wrong? 1) the fact that the above ground ratio of all silver to gold is less than 4 to 1 2) Gold ratio is 1:100
NOBODY KNOWS How could anybody measure all the silver tucked away in households all over the world as silver cutlery etc ? What about all the silver coins that used to circulate all over the world ? How much of that is still in the population ?
NOBODY KNOWS 9:1 = is the ratio of silver to gold annual mine production 6:1 = is the estimated ratio of economic gold to silver in the ground (USGS) 5:1 = is the estimated physical ratio of all silverware, silver/gold jewelry and other stocks above ground (according to CPM Group) 1:1 = is the year-to-date ratio of investment dollar demand. 1:3 = is the physical ratio of gold and silver coins/bullion (more gold than silver)
So why are you asking the question if you already have an answer ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Silver will always remain the lap dog of gold and will never surpass the value (measured in spot price) gold holds. The fact that there is less of an above ground commodity than another doesn't mean that it's value will be greater. So, even if hypothetically silver stockpiles diminish to an extreme point and the above ground silver falls below that of gold, it will not be valued equal to or greater than gold.....or at least not for very long. Above ground rhodium is far scarcer than gold and has properties far more useful than silver for certain industries (like the automotive and glass industries as just 2 examples) yet it's value is not even equal to that of gold let alone greater than gold's value. Some of you silver pipe dreamers....get a reality check. Silver is a good investment metal but it certainly isn't the new gold. .
Why? How can you know that? There has not been ever before situation that above Silver compared to Gold has been so scarce. And there has not been ever before situation that central banks dont own silver - meaning that they can't lease. What happens if paper market (1:100-500) falls down? Silver market is more leveraged than gold. Nobody knows, but if we look back to history we know that silver have been more often used as money than gold. I am speaking Silver as money. Not as industrial metal - which it is more or less today. I have not said that Silver is new Gold. It was just a quote.
You make good points, and anybody would be a fool to make such claims as I've read above. Highly unlikely based on history? Yes. Impossible? Nope
It is more probable that next money will be Silver than Gold, if we base this assumption to the History, because silver has been used more often than gold.
No, you only saw a part of the story. [img=w]http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=w1[/img] See that green trend line below? Or the blue+red one? That is the NET position on the silver futures market. Look at how close it sits towards the zero (neutrality). See, this says the whole story of the Comex 'paper silver', not just some partial one. With a simple explanation behind it: positions can undo eachother. There are tenthousands positions, but if you sum them all up, +longs -shorts, you get the picture from the outside: the NET effect. Much like you would sell a monsterbox Eagles to me. What happened: seen from the supply/the price mechanism: we undid eachother price effects. Without you, I would have to buy from a dealer, which in turn would have to order a monsterbox more from the higher supply chain. Without me, you would have to sell to a dealer, which in turn would order a monsterbox less from the higher supply chain. The same applies to the futures market. And in your link, once again that scam: Plain bullshit, because those "churned over 800 million ounces" daily trading volume actually doesn't need 800 million ounces, with 100 million ounces contracts traded 8 times over the day, you get already that trading volume. If we meet tomorrow to toss that monsterbox Eagles 50 times forth and back between us, we will have traded 25000 ounces over the day, while all we needed for it was a single monsterbox. There are days that the daily trading volume is bigger than the amount contracts. That is impossible without trading a same contract more than once. 'High Frequency Trading', it's named. And it doesn't even need to be high frequency, 50 times a day is once every 10 minutes. Hell, we can easily achieve that with our monsterbox and a beer between each toss. Imagine what electronic trading can do then.
@ CLZ, There's no good argument that I have read here or anywhere which convinces me that silver will be money (in the form of currency) again. It's just not going to happen. If or when the old US currency becomes so devalued that it is almost worthless, a new paper or digital currency will be issued. They could tie it to the new ID that the gov't will issue in several years (hypothetically). I think you ought to stop listening to some of the permabulls out there who want to manipulate people into thinking that silver is basically indispensable and that it's value to shoot to the moon...it ain't hapnin'. Silver (depending on the form) remains an asset that will gain a fair to excellent return over time. It's better than stacking potato chips. .
Got to agree there. Unless there were a complete societal - technological breakdown, a return to some sort of Medieval state, physical metal as currency has no practical use in today's modern world. No one wants their pants falling down from the weight of pounds of metal in their pockets. I'm not saying "barbarous relic" however there is some merit to that expression as far as practical currency stands. As a basis to back printed or electronic currency, great, also as an investment, great, but as actual currency, I think not.
