Discussion in 'Silver' started by Eric L - Macro & Metals, Nov 1, 2020.
It is my view that Silver will mimic gold in the coming 6-12 months with a new all-time high.
You might be on something here... spot has moved to $24USD...
Ludwig Von Mises hey? Thought he was dead?
Austrian school econ holds a special place in my heart
Same. But I’m not holding out any hope that we’ll see any of the Austrian economic theories being enacted in my lifetime. It’s MMT for as long as I can see.
I observe the charts every day. I do this for the PMs, mining sector, US Indices, VIX, and Treasury yields
We are at a major inflection point. Many are thinking crash. Obviously, the election outcome does influence the direction and velocity.
2-3 weeks ago I was saying (not here, elsewhere) that buying VIX at 25 and selling some stocks was the right thing to do. Now that VIX has hit 40 and the Dollar Index is at 94, many are freaking out and chasing after the fact. This type of behavior always happens in markets, excessive fear and greed. At VIX 40 last week I was doing the opposite, I was buying silver, cannabis, and agriculture options several months out.
On October 29th notice how fast $22.5 Silver got bought up. There is strong support down there. I would not be surprised one bit to see $25-$26 XAGUSD this week.
1 month from now or sooner, when VIX goes back down to sub-25 and the Dollar Index goes to sub-92, where do you think the metals will be?
Probably $2,000+ /oz gold in USD.
A Biden win + blue wave is the most inflationary outcome. Think marginally more open global trade and mega-stimulus. Both are extremely bullish commodities.
The stimulus proposals will target infrastructure and getting cash in the hands of consumers.
I imagine that will benefit being long this chart
Oh no, I imagine that's why you're here and investing a certain way.
I agree, the next several years look bleak for the real economy. But the increased volatility and stagflationary environment create opportunities in the unloved but vital sectors. Especially if these politicians around the world are serious about converting the automobile fleet to electric.
^^^me likey... likey... your analysis
Has started to take effect... spot $24.20USD
I disagree, the next few years will be good for the "real economy". By real economy, I mean real economy, not virtual economy or ESG hype. In terms of timeline, we're now somewhere in 2002. The plague is the equivalent of Sept 11. What followed is a commodities and real estate led bull run.
...and we’re off to a good start.. spot $24.36USD
If our politicians finally click and work out that their job is to inject money where it is needed, then the real economy should get a nice kick along. I think they'll work it out, but there will also be a large amount of that money going to waste on projects which won't provide any meaningful growth in prosperity. Health, education and the environment are probably the three main areas that are likely to see resources increasingly being wasted as funding increases.
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