Rumour that Greek default is scheduled for 23rd March

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02...-given-explicit-timetable-for-athens-default/

If true, and bankers are preparing for the default, then what is going to happen?
My estimation:

* Flight of capital from Europe
* Flight of capital into the US bond market
* Commodities get slammed
* Gold and silver take a nose dive, at least temporarily

 

But if the USD appreciates against the AUD, wont that raise the prices of PM's in Australia. Therefore lessening the effect of the 'nose dive' in gold and silver.

 

Yes, it will.
It's also the same mechanism that bluntens any gains we get from US dollar weakness.

 

A secret, high level document "leaked" from an unidentified source to, of all places, some random internet blogger.

Seriously, do you really think this is worth your time discussing?

 

The default was supposed to happen on the 23rd but thanks to that blogger, it has been moved to another day. Sorry, I can't reveal the exact date...

 

That would make it the most reliable thing out of Europe to date.

 

I heard they got Jonny Wilkinson in to kick the can down the road... so default in unlikely

 

The unidentified source is probably a reliable unidentified source, so that changes everything.

 

I guess that what I am thinking is that such a document would be regarded as extremely sensitive and eyes only. How does a random internet blogger gain access to such a document? Corporate secrets escape sometimes, but the vector is not usually like that.

 

My estimation:
They will keep bailing them out, that is all they know how to do until there is no trees left.

 

If I read one more piece about a Greek default I'm going to puke.

 

Credit Suisse: "Largest disorderly default in history" could be coming in Greece

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/credi...y-default-loss-history-march-20-has-increased

 

apart from history, any reason in particular people would be buying US bonds rather then buying gold? confidence in the USD would be at an all time low

 

The facts are they can't just go and take 400 odd Billion from the taxpayers from a population of only 11 million .....It's just not possible without sending EVERYONE over there absolutely flat broke..... No wonder they were rioting..... The Greeks polititons are telling lies again.....And the Germans are rightfully asking very serious questions..

 

US economy is recovering, their treasury bonds have shot up everytime crisis is near. Their bottom has reached and they are starting to pick up again. Australia and Canada is at all time high of boom, and slowly coming down the curve, does this signal something? Dunno, maybe.

US t bond is still the safe haven for most hedge funds (massive boys).

We small players can lose faith all we want but it's the hedge funds that move prices massively.

 

Well the late March date does make sense. From a newsletter I just read:

"If the Greeks don't get a second bailout of 130 billion by March 20th, they'll probably default on the 14 billion worth of bonds that mature on that date. That would trigger a default and probably bankruptcy. Those are just the financial consequences. The social and political consequences are more troubling.

To avoid defaulting, Greek politicians are being forced to accept years and years of austerity measures imposed by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Now don't get me wrong. Some structural changes to the Greek welfare state are long overdue. The trouble is, even under the IMF's projections, austerity measures will reduce Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to 120%...by 2020"

We're pretty close now boys and girls, regardless if we're sick to death of hearing about it (i am too).

 

what does that all mean for gold and silver?

 

Wow this is getting very HEAVY.... Check out the numbers on leverage and exposure to bonds insurance and all that other complicated stuff... Lehmans times 1000!!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-do-we-really-know-greeces-default-will-be-orderly

 

I tend to think a greek default will cause a spike in gold and a sell-off in silver. It's the moment the bond/gold buyers have been waiting for and will be a good test of how precious metals perform in large financial shocks.

 

Actually I think if it truly default, you will see the flee to T bond again. Happened twice or 3 times last year, every time it looks like shtf US t bond shot up, aud dies, gold silver dies too.

With USA pumping so many wonderful(????) news, the flight to US T bond might be more severe than the last few near misses.

My take is this, commodity (PM included) tracks mean oil price (or cost of energy). Oil price movement due to iran scare is temporary and can't be factored into mean calculations.