Robots could cost Australian economy 5 million jobs

Robots could cost Australian economy 5 million jobs, experts warn, as companies look to cut costs


A rapid acceleration in automation technology, including cheaper and more advanced robotics, could see more than 5 million Australians lose their jobs, an expert in machine learning says.

Professor Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University says almost half of all jobs in industrialised nations like Australia are at risk of redundancy over the next two decades.

"The very different thing we're seeing now is machines increasingly entering occupations reliant upon thinking," Dr Osborne told the 7.30 program.

"I work in the field of artificial intelligence and we are seeing the rapid development of a lot of technologies."

Sydney dockworker and father of three, Ben Bartolo, is experiencing that first hand he is about to lose his job at Port Botany.

"Patricks are going to bring automation into the terminal, where they are not going to need my position anymore," the 34-year-old straddle driver said.

It has been 16 years since Mr Bartolo's employer, Patrick Stevedores, triggered the historic waterfront dispute by slashing and restructuring its workforce.

Now Patricks is about to deploy driverless robots to take over cargo handling operations at Port Botany.

Mr Bartolo is just one of 180 who have been told their jobs must go.

Paddy Crumlin, national secretary of the Maritime Union, is furious Patricks only announced its automation plans after dockworkers had settled their latest enterprise agreement.

"Virtually the whole world changed overnight," Mr Crumlin said.

"You know, [they said] 'we've halved the workforce, we've got rid of human beings. Hurrah, hurrah. We are world's best practice.' I don't think that's best business practice."

Almost half of US employment 'at risk of automation'

About 700 industrial robots are now imported into Australia annually and more than 1 million are already hard at work across industrialised nations.

Professor Osborne and his research colleagues are increasingly concerned about the rate of automation and the job losses, and the increased social inequality it could trigger.

"This historical trend we've seen of being able to find new uses for human labour, create new jobs even faster than technology makes them redundant, that may not continue," Dr Osborne said.

"We set out to identify which occupations are most susceptible to automation and found that 47 per cent of current US employment is at high risk of automation."

It is a forlorn forecast Dr Osborne believes is equally relevant for Australia.

"A fairly similar fraction of employment is at high risk of automation over the next 20 years. So I believe that will be the case for Australia as well," Dr Osborne said.

Such claims have triggered vigorous debate.
"We need to be very cautious about making big conclusions about jobs at risk," Professor James Bailey of Melbourne University said.

"There's a next wave of computerisation coming and it's a very powerful technology. The kinds of technologies, I think, are going to assist humans in the types of decisions they reach.

"So I view it as a positive that will free up people's time to work on higher level activities."

However, machine learning specialist Professor David Dowe of Monash University broadly agrees with the Oxford researchers.

"All sorts of things we humans do and we thought are the preserve of humans are likely to be automated," he said.

"How quickly this will happen, I don't know, but I think it's very important that we discuss this sort of stuff and anticipate it."

'Baxter' the $35,000 robot helping companies cut costs

Today, 85 per cent of robots in Australia work outside the car industry, once the robot's exclusive domain.

"You have to adopt evolution of technology," Chris Troman, general manager of Australia's biggest brickworks, Austral Bricks, said.

"Those that continue to evolve their businesses and factories and embrace anything that's available to them to be more efficient and more competitive will always survive and thrive."

Austral says its heavy reliance on robots and automation today has dramatically reduced workplace injuries and labour costs.

"We're in a very competitive environment. There's a constant drive to reduce our input costs into our business. That allows us to deliver cheaper product to the end user," Mr Troman said.

And costs are falling as rapidly as robot capabilities rise. A new generation humanoid robot called Baxter is a prime example.

The first of his species to arrive in Australia, Baxter will be your slave for just $35,000.

"In the US, where Baxter was born, there are at last count 190 companies that have installed Baxter," importer Peter Birnbaum of Training Systems Australia said.

"In the UK it's sorting apples. We have one company in the UK that is seriously looking at installing 1,000 Baxters."

To many that simply sounds like science fiction - but to Sydney dockworker Mr Bartolo, it has become a harsh reality.

"I'm just a worker that wants to come to work and do my job and maintain a living for my family," he said. "So, automation - it feels cold."

Mr Crumlin of the MUA agrees.

"Consumption is predicated upon jobs," he said.

"In our society human beings drive growth.

"The whole thing is distorted. It says business values prevail over social values. There needs to be a check and a balance over how these things are introduced and why."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-...an-economy-5-million-jobs-expert-says/5484740

 

Robots work 24hrs a day non-stop. Tax the robots and bring the retirement age down to 40 might be the answer.

Regards Errol 43

 

Automated dump trucks in the mines delivering raw & processed products to automated trains to automated dockside cranes loading automated ships delivering to overseas factories full of robots making automated, dumptrucks, trains, ships and cranes...

 

Machines have been taking people's jobs for over a hundred years. Yet people still have work and we as a society are wealthier than ever, even the poorest of us are better off than just one hundred years ago. This isn't going to change.

What will happen is that work that is not financially viable at the moment becomes financially viable as automation provides more and more capital to society. New jobs are being created all the time. How many people work on computer games today, as just one example, compared to 20 years ago?

Well, if the "experts" say it it must be true.

 

Thanks Australian unions!

They have been at war with "the bosses" for 100+ years, and should not be surprised if modern technology has been used to take their place in the factory.

No strikes, sick leave, holidays, RDOs, and a dozen other lurks.

The world had better get used to the idea that ALL multinationals, local companies, departments, corner shops etc, try to run themselves with the MINIMUM number of people. My boss at budget time always repeated, "you should staff your area as if YOU were paying the salaries".

More machines means less jobs and that is the future. The only savior i think is MUCH lower salaries.

I do not wish to live to see it!

OC

 

Mechanical robot as compared to human robot.

Welcome to the machine.

 

It should say "robots could affect up to five million current labour intensive activities". Every innovation and productivity improvement affects people. That's the point. We could get rid of tractors and create five million jobs.

 

"That's the point. We could get rid of tractors and create five million jobs."


.....or we could get rid of mechanical diggers, issue tea-spoons, and 'create' 50 million jobs.


OC

 

They're doing just this in South Africa right now... de-mechanising. And their productivity is falling through the floor.

Companies are forced by the govt to employ an increasing quota of labour. I saw video of one road building contractor that had sidelined their bitumen sprayers and tried 50 guys with squee-gees to spread hot bitumen on the road by hand. It was slower, wasteful, of poor quality and the compensation for injuries nearly crippled them.

They since reinstated the sprayers and pay the workers to just sit around...many don't even bother to turn up. They just stay at home and collect a paycheque.

Similar situation with the mines and agriculture. Ironically, the one industy that RSA is competitive in is car building... but not because of the robots (every car factory uses them now) but because of all the 'concessions' the govt. gives not to interfere in their business.

 

This is what the Bilderberg Group wants, a zero growth world, together with their access the central bank printing and enforced globalized trade treaties to stop local industry.

What is to become of our immediate children and grandchildren, to become useless eaters?

What is going to happening to hell knows what, and what is replace all these jobs?

Keep the faith TP&CS :/

 

When they can build a robot to climb a ladder carrying a piece of timber i'l be worried :
The building industry is fairly safe . If your worried about robots get a trade ....safe as .... dare i say it ...houses

 

They're working on it ...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD48SLxwezg[/youtube]

 

Good joke mate. If after only a couple of years they can make houses with 3d printers, imagine the quality of houses they'll be able to print in 10 years.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYqBxEAtXZA[/youtube]

 

I can source robots locally
An Aussie design BUT he had to move to the USA to finish the development of it
Made in the US they can lift up to 3kg & cheap apparently less than 1 years minimum wage
Can been viewed in Melbourne S.E suburbs

 

This is a good point. Automation does not necessarily mean humanoid robots.

 

The robots can put the roof on screw it down & trim it up put the gutters/fascia,soffit , install the drainage ,lay the tiles ,install the fixtures(light fittings/switches/power outlets,bathrooms,kitchens), plumbing ,run the wires , windows & doors/locks , custom paint shemes ? .I believe someday there will be robot made boxes but theres too many custom made houses to have them all made by robots ...not in our lifetime . There will always be work for humans & i use the word humans loosely if youve seen some of the guys ive employed

 

Yes, just like some people still buy Ferraris and Bentleys. However, the vast majority will go for the version that costs 10% of a man built house. In the video above one machine can build 10 of those little houses in one day... imagine what will be possible (including custom designs) in 10-20 years. The manufacturing industry is going to die and I have no idea what 70%+ of tradies are going to do.

 

Technology is another tool.

The problem is the system. Under the current system it will be used to create a greater class divide. The rich will get richer and people will become unemployed will face starvation.

This is the push to depopulate the planet.

Don't worry automated drones will be programmed to locate and kill anyone that disagrees. Brave new world we are heading into.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20JCGDwBt7A[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbQeABIoO6A[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFrjrgBV8K0[/youtube]

I'm not sure if you guys have seen the movie "Oblivion" well that's what's called Informed Disclosure through entertainment. Make no mistake the technology is here, they are just taking there time to roll it out. It's the old story of "the Boiling Frogs". Microchipping the populace and terminating them at will. Much easier than war.

 

Did i mention the millions of existing houses that will need repairs /renovations ? They will not magically dissapear . Trades are a safe bet for anyone even leaving school today . The problem is most young people think Manual Labour is a mexican .

You obviously have no experience dealing with customers with custom designs . They change their mind sometimes daily up dating this moving that adding extra light here ,power outlet there . I suppose robots will landscape it & install the pool & filtration ,tiles/pebblecrete,pavers/cement driveways/footpaths too lol sorry col ...you have no idea :lol:

 

Nah mate, you're completely right. People will definitely choose the option that is 10-20x more expensive. I agree that repairs and renovations would probably still be done by people, what percent of work is done building new houses vs repairs though?