Risk assessment for Aud gold price

Discussion in 'Gold' started by jalbyau, Dec 14, 2019.

  1. jalbyau

    jalbyau New Member

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    Hi All,
    Do you think Aud gold is cheap, expensive or where it should be and where do you think the Aud gold price is headed. If you had $5000 and were looking at making a purchase this week ,what factors could move the Aud gold price downwards. Ian intrested to hear thoughts on the basis that the usd gold price was to stay at it’s current price.
     
  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold price in AUD has either bottomed or is bottoming right now. In the coming year you will be hard pressed to find as good an opportunity to buy now. I would recommend getting yourself an ounce of fractional gold (1/10 or 1/20 size) and the rest as low premium (1oz cast button). The downside risk to gold at the moment is lower than the upside. If it does get cheaper you can just buy more for less, but if it goes up you risk missing out and losing buying power.

    Long story short unless you're looking to drop 100k on gold, don't worry too much about the gold price. Just buy as much as you can afford. An investment of 5k won't move much up or down in a year regardless, you will be looking to hold for 10 years or more to see a significant gain in value.
     
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  3. SuprmeLeadr

    SuprmeLeadr Member

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    has there ever been a time when the above hasn't been an accurate risk assessment?
     
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  4. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    August 2019 was a shitty time to be buying, gold was on a bull run and hit 2400 AUD. At the time I thought it would clear 2500 easy and bought a few ounces of fractionals. Had I been more experienced I would have limited my buying to 1/10 Oz a week. Still I am a small time stacker so it wasn't that big of a mistake but if I had dropped 100k in then I would have been completely turned off stacking when we bottomed now. Moral of the story is new stackers should always proceed with caution and focus on small weekly buys until they get a hang of the market trends and then make bigger buys to cost average down.
     
  5. SuprmeLeadr

    SuprmeLeadr Member

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    Looks like the 2019 high was 1545USD (correct me if I'm wrong) at .67 AUD is 2306AUD
    so if we bought then compared to now its 2146/2306=7%
    if we're holding long tern than that's completely reasonable fluctuations for the first there months of a 20+ year investment/store of wealth
    if we're short term flipping than we probably shouldn't have bought into a rising market
     
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  6. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You're absolutely right, but expectations of new stackers are that it'll go to the moon tomorrow and never fall. 7% would scare alot of people out of stacking. Smart buying of dips can yield you an extra couple 1/10oz for your trouble, which adds up over time.
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I lost 9% within 3 months after my first bulk purchase of gold in May 2018. It was a big turn off. Silver did worst. In October 2018, I went on to double my stack, so my average cost went below $1300.
     
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  8. Drake181

    Drake181 Active Member Silver Stacker

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  9. jalbyau

    jalbyau New Member

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    For 1/10 What premium above spot would be the max you would pay, for example do you consider 1/10 perth mint lunar coins too expensive ?
     
  10. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Spot plus $15-20 dollars per coin. More for lunars. Single coins I've paid up to $40 premium for. Bulk coins as little as spot + $5. Dealers premium is typically 12-13% so about $30.
     
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  11. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A few points I'd consider if I were you:

    You'd really perform a risk assessment on gold price based solely on biased responses from a metal-bug forum?
    Are you really after objective views? Or just hoping to hear exactly the info that backs up your own preconceptions?

    The only basis to measure relative gold price is from the spot price benchmark.
    Everything else is conjecture.

    Based on what analysis/evidence?

    Cheers
     
  12. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Please refer to your technical analyst of choice. I'm only providing an opinion.
     
  13. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sweet.
    That was my point. :)
    Fairly consistent "opinion" for a metals forum. ;)

    Now, how is that risk assessment going?
     
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  14. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If he was after anything else he might as well have asked the ford forum what they think of Commodores. He said he was interested in hearing everyone's thoughts and I offered mine. You may be so kind to offer yours if they differ.
     
  15. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    100% Agree.
    Hence my question above : "Are you really after objective views? Or just hoping to hear exactly the info that backs up your own preconceptions?"

    My thoughts?:.... I am only slightly bullish on gold.
    However, my thoughts, like yours, in no way constitute a "Risk assessment", especially given the OP question of "...what factors could move the Aud gold price downwards..."
     
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  16. tigger2

    tigger2 Member

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    1/10 are extremely expensive. There's quite a lot of older fractional coins available atm for spot and below (I'm undecided on whether these sellers expect prices to fall or they just need money for xmas).

    Very fair point.

    In terms of risk assessment, the risk of gold is not really its price per se but rather the risk of buying gold and not buying into other potentially more lucrative investments. Gold has underperformed almost everything including cash over the course of my lifetime. I'm putting a tiny bit into gold because it seems cheap while stock markets are getting extremely frothy and stock prices are being driven more by retail greed than profits. I'm not putting very much in to gold because year by year I think it's losing its relevance to the financial system and the older demographic that believed that gold was shelter have mostly died off.
     
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  17. tigger2

    tigger2 Member

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    Doh obviously incorrect "Gold has underperformed almost everything including cash over the course of my lifetime."

    Meant that gold has not kept with inflation over the course of my 40 years. Would need to get up to some 3000usd pretty quickly to offset inflation.
     
  18. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  19. Slimey

    Slimey Active Member

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    Risk Assessment.....you had better define the risk your assessing.
    - is it metal price
    - is it currency
    - is it economic
    - is it interest rates
    - is it getting caught by your missus checking out the lady at the checkouts?
     
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  20. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hold on tight, were already halfway there and 2020 just arrived.
     

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