Remember the time when.....

Discussion in 'Silver' started by mmissinglink, Jun 5, 2015.

  1. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    How do you know? The USD won't collapse............UNTIL IT DOES.
     
  2. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Physical is barely relevant for COMEX since 95 or 99% of the contracts get delivered in dollars instead of commodity.
    It's just not the goal of a futures market. It's just a way to set the price higher or lower as to receive compensating dollars for eventual losses due to serving as a guaranteed counterparty (at any price willing to sell, at any price willing to buy back). The reason for its invention and creation: hedging, an attempt to lock cost and profit.
    So, whether they have commodity left or not, is just irrelevant. It's not the goal of the "future" buyers/sellers.
    Also, what is "default" these days? In 2008 and later many banks defaulted. Yet, how much bank deposit money was declared as "gone"? Zero? As far as I know, few to none lost bank savings. So much for "default".
     
  3. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Owngoal?
     
  4. Believe something from a person who says Ellie Wiesenthal is credible and trustworthy?
    I think I'll pass.
     
  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Nope.
    Just thinking with my own brains.
     
  6. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    IF it does, it will be the LAST of the world's currencies to collapse. All the others will tumble first and there will be a flight to the USD.
     
  7. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    More like a flight to the yuan backed by gold & silver. lol
     
  8. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    The burden of proof is on you (and those who claim that 'tomorrow' (imminently) the USD will collapse) to provide real evidence to support such an implausible claim. It's akin to some people claiming that the world will end very soon and their alleged deity will "with a cry of command, with the archangel's call and with the sound of God's trumpet, will descend from heaven" and scoop up the faithful - the burden of proof is on them to support that claim.

    So, if you think the USD will collapse imminently, where's any good evidence for that?




    .
     
  9. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't...
    The gov't has been pretty good at keeping it afloat.
    My thinking is "better safe than sorry".
    Far from "the collapse is upon us all, hoard PM's!" lol

    We have accumulated massive amounts of debt.
    Perhaps we don't see a fed rate hike. Maybe we see QE4.
    Just print some more money, b/c that seems to always be the answer!

    Countries like Germany, India, China are hoarding gold.
    Those same countries will be opening a new world bank to compete with the IMF.
    They encourage their people to stack gold. Gotta be for a reason.

    TLDR: IMO - long term, PMs are a pretty solid roll of the dice.
    Regardless of whether the dollar remains strong or fails - doesn't matter long term.
     
  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Commodity Exchange Inc. put that on all 6 "Warehouse & Depository Stocks" reports on http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-delivery-notices.html
    They don't store it themselves, others do:
    Ex. for silver
    BRINK'S, INC
    CNT DEPOSITORY, INC.
    DELAWARE DEPOSITORY
    HSBC BANK, USA
    JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA
    SCOTIA MOCATTA
    and for gold
    BRINK'S, INC.
    DELAWARE DEPOSITORY
    HSBC BANK, USA
    JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA
    MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC.
    SCOTIA MOCATTA
    What else can they, and anyone, do than "believe" aboves storage providers?
    Such disclaimers appear alot when third parties are involved. It's common practice to avoid legal trouble when wrong data is given.
    Things would be different if Commodity Exchange Inc would store themselves, but they don't.
    But their is a club out there that likes to prop up its sales figures; people speculate on stuff that they think its price will rise, and making claims about stock not existing and discovery "busted" is such a "shortage" suggestion. They can be right, only that it's hard to find data supporting their claim, and if such data is hard to find, on which basis do they make the claim then? Look at the million articles on zerohedge & co, they color cited sources in the typical browser link color blue, but there aren't links, it's just blue tagged text, at best they just name the home page of the mentioned company / organisation. Why do they not like their readers to be easily able to verify? Something to ponder 'bout.
     
  11. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    QEx, and other governments equivalents, are scams. They create the money on their balance, but at the same time they increase the required reserves and pay the banks a higher (= also less negative) rate than the market rate, to make them keep that money on their balance at the central bank as excess reserves, so that the created money doesn't start to circulate.
    And then they destroy it again, ex the ECB destroyed most of the euro's barely 1 year later, and their last so called "bazooka" shot, earlier this year, occurred precisely after two existing "bazooka" shots were paid back, in other words just an extending of existing loans. That seems to be a typical trick, summing up loans over a period, while ignoring their terms, funny how the zerohedges and the governments of the world use same tricks. In 2011 zerohedge also claimed a QE1 of 16000 billion (based on a Fed audit by a GAO institution, and the term-adjustment of that 16 billion resulted precisely to the QE1 amount of 1200 billion, with the document explicitly stating that the sum of the table wasn't term adjusted, and the term-adjusted figure in a table on the next page, and zerohedge nicely ignoring it.

    PM's aren't solid rolls of the dice. Nothing is. The only element that determines success is ones trading behaviour, ie at which prices you are willing to buy, and sell. The metal is dead, its market is zero sum, and its stocks will always get sold again, to undo the price trend that their accumulation caused.
     
  12. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    My dice get thrown across a 20-30 year timeline.
    At current price levels, I'm pretty sure it's a good roll. :)
     
  13. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    1979 average was $22
    1980 it was sold down to $16 (-$4)
    1981 it was sold down to $8 (-$8)
    1990 it was sold down to $4 (-$4)
    2 decades, remaining price 1/5

    2011 average was $35
    2012 it was sold down to $32 (-$3)
    2013 it was sold down to $24 (-$6)
    2014 it was sold down to $19 (-$5)
    Mid 2015 it is sold down to $16 (-$3 so for the whole year let's double to -$6 and thus $13)
    And that last is also what a typical futures market position sweep of 40-50K down would deliver today.

    Since I bought most of my silver at $32, I have to be very picky to correct it, so my next euro > silver swap is sized at 30 kilo by start 2016 and targeted at $13, with a hopefully stronger euro (2015 hangs around a decade-low; so there's a fat chance).
     
  14. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    Rolling the dice...interesting way to put it.


    I think pretty Cowrie seashell buyers back in the 1800's were saying basically the same type of thing? :lol:


    Silver no longer functions as money for probably 99.999999% of people in the world. In 30 years, it's likely that percentage will go up even higher. That's not to say that silver isn't seen as an asset by some or many people (asset money), it is...but what is seen as an asset today may not be seen so favorably in 30 years.


    If silver in 30 years is USD $1,000/ oz. it's possible that your average loaf of bread in 30 years could be the same price too. So, if that happened it would likely mean that the value of silver has not gone up but rather the value of the dollar and silver has gone down.


    Buying silver can be seen as rolling the dice after all. ;) :)



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  15. Snoopy

    Snoopy Member

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    I'd say, it is the're (COMIX) god damn job to ensure and guarantee the data provided by these sources and services is correct and trustworthy. Besides, for all those years it seemed not to be a problem, yet they suddenly felt they need to publish this disclaimer, I wonder why, why now ?
     
  16. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    edited out
     
  17. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I point that out because Caput laughs at me all the time too, so this time I decided to something according to how these type of people think we should do, which is fight back -

    "They would be of the opinion that laughing at others is part of the daily life and if others do not like being laughed at, they should just fight back."



    .
     
  18. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  19. aleks

    aleks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Remember when Auspm went on his long winded rants of objectivism
     
  20. lurk@l0t

    lurk@l0t Active Member

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    yeh - i kinda miss him. he used to really stick it to the property-bots on here :lol:
     

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