Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by Suckering Suckertash, Apr 15, 2012.
Why is it that Pandas which are classified as bullion, command such a high premium?
1. Low mintage
2. Changing design
3. Past performance as investment
4. Chinese market for semi-numismatic bullion is going to grow with the Chinese economy.
I see. So Pandas are really quasi-numismatic?
Pandas, especially pre 04, are considered full numismatic coins due to mintage numbers and demand. Obviously some are more highly valued than others.
Read the sticky posts on the Panda Forum page by yennus and you'll get a good education as to why this is.
Also, where do you recommend me buying Pandas? I have no idea where to look.
What are you guys thoughts on how the increased mintages will affect premiums on both those and the older years?
I've read on this forum that people are pretty adamant that Chinese demand will exceed Panda supply. I suppose that is possible - China is forecast to grow at 7.5% this year. I think an important point is whether you believe the middle class or the rich class will be increasing. If it is the middle class, I would assume that silver Panda demand will rise as gold Pandas are very expensive.
Overall demand will increase, so will premium. Here is what I think:
1. Increased mintage for later years (2011 & later - 10X or more increase in mintage): this means more people will buy and get to know about bullion silver Panda, and a fraction of them will get attracted to Panda collection - this increases premium of prior years, as there will be more demand
2. With increase of awareness, population and shift from gold to silver, high mintage years will still sell out - this also will help #1
3. Of course, later year premiums will rise very slowly, and by marginal amount, but prior years' will be exponential
4. You seldom get prior year MS70 grading, but more in later years. So, collector's focus for later years will be grade 70 instead of 69 - this means, with time passing by, grade 70 of later years will fetch increased premium.
My 2 cents.
And a good 2cents worth
I think shibaji put it pretty well
Just think of the standard Demand vs Supply graph.
Supply: You have a limited amount of Pandas being minted (8,000,000x 1oz Silver 2012 Pandas) - with even fewer scoring MS70 and MS69, etc.
Demand: Every Chinese person with a TV has been encouraged to buy gold and silver (1,300,000,000 Chinese). From the poor to the rich, demand is growing in all classes, among a people group that prefers to save than to spend.
That means only 1x 1oz 2012 Silver Panda per 162.5 people. To me, this speaks of incredible demand, and very limited supply of even the latest Panda coin.
Now if you apply this across the previous years, where there are only a few thousand 1oz Silver Pandas (E.g. 2000 Mirror Panda)... it's easy to understand how 1oz of silver can be worth more than 1oz of gold
Modern coin mart ,and e bay usa ,both have sub 90.00 usd ,ms 70,s for sale,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I just cant see that being a bad investment if a person has the right time horizon ..............especially if silver gets up off its butt
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