[QA] Slabbed 2011s or BU 2010s

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Sep 10, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I got a fantastic Question today.


    [​IMG] OR [​IMG]


    <<<Question>>>
    Hi Yennus, Those 2010 pandas look bargainy. But they have put me in a little dilemma:) ..

    a) I have put aside some $$$ for an order of 20 x 2011 NGC MS69 pandas, but now you're offering the '10s @ the same price. and I can't get them both!

    My gut wants to stay with the safety of having the slabbed coins for the same price( graded , easier resale , etc..), but on the other hand I'm probably as bullish as you on the 2010's for their potential.

    b) If pandas are primarily for the international collectors market, I think people may have been more concerned with buying food, and keeping their house, than collecting coins? ..just an opinion, could be very wrong:)

    c) I was looking to make the purchase soon, either way, but I'd really appreciate your opinion on this one. 20 x 2011 graded/slabbed? .. 20 x 2010's? ..or a mix of both?

    d) I know you're really busy atm, so I'm not expecting a detailed answer or anything, just an idea on which way you would go ...which would be greatly appreciated!!

    e) Godspeed with the panda hunt, Chris!!! and thank you in advance ..

    Cheers, xxxx.
    <<< END >>>

    Answer: This is pure opinion.

    Hi there,

    thanks heaps for this question. I think it is a really good one.

    a) I think your gut feeling is probably correct. If you can get NGC MS69 2011 Pandas for the same price as BU 2010 Pandas, I think you are onto something good. We are already towards the end of 2011, with 2012 Pandas a few months away, I think you can expect to see a small and quick price appreciation with the slabbed 2011s.

    My guess is that we will probably see a larger price appreciation on the 2010s in the next 6-12months (lower mintage + older coin), but getting MS69 2011 Pandas at about $60 is a BARGAIN!

    It doesn't hurt to go 50/50 on Slabbed 2011s and BU 2010s. Which one will do better? No one really knows.

    Personally I am trying to hoard as many BU 2010s as possible, because in a few years time, the slabbing fee will be marginal to the worth of the coin. But that's a different question for another day :)

    b) I think many people make the mistake of thinking that Pandas are primarily for the international collectors market. On the contrary, Pandas are sold first and foremost as bullion coins and are made available to the public like ASEs and Maples.

    The difference between Pandas and other bullion coins (like ASEs and Maples) is that older Pandas appreciate in value, whereas standard bullion coins usually don't.

    This is the Pandas advantage. Sold as bullion, but appreciates like a fine wine :)

    Pandas are coins for the masses, not only the collector.

    c) A mix of both is probably the safest way to go. But I'm a big fan of following your gut instincts :)

    Either way I think you will do well. l believe the entire Panda market is currently undervalued, and that even the lowliest Panda will appreciate in the future.

    d) Yeah sorry this is rushed... I gotta take my son for a walk.

    e) Thanks heaps, it's my pleasure :)

    Fantastic question!

    Many thanks,
    Yennus.
     
  2. goldilox

    goldilox Member Silver Stacker

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    personally i'd go for the 2010s. i am not a panda expert or a panda anything
    while the slabbed coins are a bargain, the 2010 with the lower mintage is going to have a lot less MS69s in the future, dont you think?
    i also really dont like slabbed coins, but thats beside the point

    edit: 100th post :rolleyes:
     
  3. goldilox

    goldilox Member Silver Stacker

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    ok, so you're not going to get 20 MS69s if you get the 2010s slabbed, but you know what i mean... the demand will be strong
    you might even get an MS70
    its a tough decision
     
  4. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    I'd get the 2010s personally, plenty of 2011 out there still so plenty of time to buy slabbed 2011s.
     
  5. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Congratz PlatinumRyder on your 100th post!

    Thanks PlatinumRyder and Fishball. I think you are both correct. The 2010s are about 4x more scarce than 2011s, and there are healthy stocks of 2011s still available.

    It should be interesting to see how the prices for individual coins move over the next 6-12months.
     
  6. Bart

    Bart New Member

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    What is the cost for slabbing? I got no idea, but just say it's about $15, then you're getting a MS69 quality coin, varified, for just around $45...and if you need to liquidate, you get the premium back on resale anyway.
    They should be very sensitive to any rise in silver spot price, and move accordingly -but stay solid if spot goes down. But ...the forecast is ^^^ for the near future, isn't it :)
    Also, I'd expect them to be easier to sell to the public due to their apparent authenticity. A lot of people are still wary about buying pandas from what i've noticed, so this seems a pretty safe bet.

    But, on the other hand those 10'ers are 4 x more scarce @ just $60 ea!!!

    Thanks for the headache, yennus:)
     
  7. thehuckler

    thehuckler New Member

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    I'd be hitting the 2010's all day long, no question.

    You never know, they could all be of a high enough standard to slab anyway?
     
  8. xiki

    xiki New Member

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    I found this question interesting, so I decided to do an impromptu survey of the bay's prices at the moment. There is nothing scientific about this, just some entertainment and a possible aid when deciding whether it's worth it to buy the slabbed coins instead of regular uncirculated. (I take no responsibility for methods, errors or anything else, don't base your purchases on this, do your own research, etc...)

    The basis for my search was to check the prices for a few years and a few qualites, by checking the "buy now"-prices only. I did not check what they have been sold for recently, after all, there is the pricepedia, so I am not trying to reinvent the wheel. Here is what I found, prices in USD:

    [​IMG]
    Source: My own table

    So, it seems to me that MS69 has a potential for growing nicely, but not anywhere near the MS70. To repeat, these are asking prices in "buy now"-offers, so they might not be what people actually get for their coins, but the difference seems staggering. The MS68 seem to be living on a different planet, being more expensive than the MS69.

    Many of these sellers deliver only to the US, so take that into account also. For 2009, most offers are for the 30th anniversary edition, I decided not to distinguish, as only the MS69 was the regular edition.
     
  9. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks xiki! That is a fantastic chart!
     
  10. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    I think is better 2010 then 2011 slabed for only two points:

    1) the tao is finished at 2010 (2001/2010) is the cheapest tao for new chinese collectors. To complete next tao is a delay of 10 years (2020)

    2) if you buy ms69 its a 99% secure you dont have a ms70. If you buy 10 2010 is more than posible yo have x ms70 (i dont have the %) here and the ms70 apreciate much more than ms69 (thanks a Xiki for the table)

    Im not buy labeled coins. But if i travel a usa a labeled all of my pandas (someone say how long to make a labeled coin?)
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hahahha.... I like that analysis Thor122... It's true, there is a chance that some of these 2010s may grade at MS70; but almost no chance that the MS69 2011s will grade at MS70.

    Yes, I too would like to travel to the USA to get my coins graded. Hopefully I'll have that opportunity later this year.
     
  12. Bart

    Bart New Member

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    So the taos go from 01-10, 11-20, 21-30 etc .. Is this the standard?
     
  13. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Tao Collecting Creates Key Pandas
    By Peter Anthony, World Coin News
    July 18, 2011

    Other News & Articles
    Cherrypicking the Best Coins
    Animals Populate U.S. Coin Designs
    Many Dates and Series Remain Attractive
    This article was originally printed in World Coin News.
    >> Subscribe today!

    Chinese numismatists prefer their coins in sets, or tao. Tao can be large or small, but collectors often favor a series of manageable size. For instance, instead of buying every silver Panda dating back to 1982, it's a lot easier to form a set of Pandas from 2001-2011. This desire for sets is so strong that some years ago there was, essentially, no market for single coins from a broken set. Let's say you had one coin out of a four-coin set that was worth $200 for all four. If you took your coin to a dealer, was it worth $50? No. Was it worth $40? No. How about $20? No. There was simply no interest in one coin out of a set in most cases.

    This preference for complete sets has consequences. One is that it tends to make the key, or scarcest, coins in a set rise in price the fastest. Consider, if there are 50 of Coin A and 100 of Coin B on the market, what happens if a dealer tries to piece together 60 pairs? The first 50 sets can be quietly assembled from existing stocks without disturbing the market's price structure. But where do the last 10 Coin A's come from? Somebody who wasn't planning on selling their coins needs to be coaxed into parting with them. Suddenly Coin A starts to move up in price while Coin B doesn't.


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    That attracts more interest and demand to coin A, which makes it even more expensive.

    A good example of how this works can be found in the group of silver 10 yuan Pandas minted from 2001 on. Until the middle of last year, you could buy any of these coins for $25 to $35 apiece. Then, in early summer, prices for the 2003 coin abruptly doubled in China and kept rising from there. It took several months for markets abroad to recognize the change. Some collectors voiced suspicions that the market was being manipulated. What had actually happened was that not enough 2003s were available in China to meet the demand for sets, so prices rose in response.

    Today the asking price for a 2003 10 yuan silver Panda is around $150-$200, which makes it the key coin of this tao. 2003, though, was just the first coin to react. Early in 2011 both the 2004 and 2006 silver Pandas spiked in price, too. Clearly there is some value in this group of coins. They offer a combination of moderate prices, scarcity and are beautiful. It's even possible that there may even be a sleeper coin, or two, still hiding in the tao. See chart that compares the price history of the set to silver bullion. The numbers show that if you had bought a new 1-ounce silver Panda each year from 2000 through 2010, the cost would have been $334. At the end of may 2011, those coins would have been worth $1,418. Besides a tidy profit, this chart illustrates one other nice quality about these popular coins. Look at what happened to the price of silver in 2008: it declined. While the price of Pandas was affected by the economic events of the time, too, it recovered quickly enough that on a yearly chart there is actually a slight increase in value.

    But that is the past; what of the future? Will collecting silver Pandas continue to be a profitable activity? There are a couple of factors that suggest the next five years will not be a duplicate of the last five. The first change involves mintages. Back in the year 2000, the Chinese Mint was only selling 100,000 to 200,000 silver Pandas per year (that's an estimate, by the way). They continued to strike relatively modest quantities of coins up until 2009. In 2010 the mintage number jumped to 1.5 million. Just a few weeks ago, the Mint announced it was increasing the mintage of 2011 silver Pandas to 10 million.

    With 10 million silver Pandas to be released in 2011, it becomes unlikely that 2011 Pandas will ever achieve a significant numismatic premium. That makes the strategy of buying each year's new coin not much different than just buying an ounce of silver every year. The 2011 and later coins will probably track the price of silver quite closely.

    All is not lost, however. The China Mint apparently does not intend to flood overseas markets with Pandas. Rather, the extra coins will stay in China and be sold to its citizens. Many observers believe that as more and more Chinese people become acquainted with the beauty and value of Panda coins, some percentage of them will become collectors and start buying the earlier dates. That could add fuel to the fire of those very same coins that have already leaped in value due to sparse supplies. So while the road to fortune may no longer be as simple as buying a bunch of the latest Pandas, the tao of 2000 and later coins remain an area that is worthy of collector's
     
  14. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    The answer to the yennus post is buy "2009" cost versus posibility of grow in valor
     

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