[QA] Simple Panda Investing

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Aug 30, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hey Xxx,
    ...

    You ask some really good questions.

    Personally, I think that bullion only acts to preserve wealth, whereas Pandas have the potential to grow wealth.

    The best answer in my opinion depends on a few factors:

    What is your investment time frame, and are you after physical growth gains ?

    Option 1: If you're looking at a short time frame, less than 1year, and only want some quick cash gains. I think stacking bars might be a good approach. E.g. Take advantage of lowish spot prices.
    Pros: A quick cash gain is nice.
    Cons: In real terms based on silver, you have only maintained your position. E.g. You can only buy back the same number (or less) of ounces that you have sold.

    E.g. If we were back in 2005, and bought 100x 1oz Silver Generic bars/coins (bullion, ASEs, Maples, etc), today that would only trade for 1:1 for generic silver (or less). You would only get a cash gain, but no real physical silver gains.
    ...

    Option 2: If you're looking at a longer time frame, more than 5years, and want some real asset gains, I think stacking bullion Pandas (2011 and 2012) are a good way to go, despite their high mintage.
    Pros: You could actualize a cash gain, and grow your silver stack at the same time.
    Cons: It could take a few years to mature - or may never mature. The storage conditions of the coins are very important.

    E.g. Take a look at 7 years ago.
    If we were back in 2005, and bought 100x 1oz Silver 2005 Pandas, today that would easily trade for 200-300x 1oz Silver 2012 Pandas (and much more generic silver bullion). You would win in both cash and asset gains.

    E.g. Take a look at 5 years ago.
    If we were back in 2007, and bought 100x 1oz Silver 2007 Pandas, today that would easily trade for 150x 1oz Silver 2012 Pandas or even more (and much more generic silver).

    E.g. Take a look at 3 years ago.
    If we were back in 2009, and bought 100x 1oz Silver 2009 Pandas, today that would easily trade for 150-200x 1oz Silver 2012 Pandas or even more (and much more generic silver).

    Plus their are grading options and opportunities that could be worth exploring a few years down the track.

    Hope this helps.

    Kind regards,
    Yennus.
     
  2. Ryaneod

    Ryaneod New Member

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    Yennus,

    Would you mind keeping this going as a sticky per say to collect questions/thoughts about investing in Panda's?

    One question I have always had, where would you recommend getting those 100 oz's of Panda's? I have seen singles going around here but nothing really of that quantity. I would be fearful of spending that kind of money on flea-bay as there seems to be an overwhelming amount of fakes floating around. I have picked up some graded ones but would be interested in looking at getting larger numbers of OMP's each year, as I get more and more into investing in Panda's. Thoughts? Suggestions?
     
  3. silverfever

    silverfever New Member

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  4. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks Ryaneod.

    Happy to make this a sticky if it gets enough attention :)

    Some simple recommendations on where to get a few 100oz of Pandas:
    1. APMEX is a good place for Americans.
    2. Maggie is a good place for Australians, but also your current friendly Panda Moderator, Yennus :)
     
  5. Ryaneod

    Ryaneod New Member

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    Yennus,

    I see your location is Shanghai/Sydney, can you get them directly from the mint when in Shanghai? Are you able to get the "other" medals?

    As to value, which is better to keep that 100 oz in, OMP or graded?

    Thanks!

    Ryan
     
  6. worldbubble

    worldbubble Active Member

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    Nice thread, like this analysis and what-ifs ...
    To pandas I'd add some Britannias ... especially minted in 2000-2002

    walk around this forum and you'll find places where you can get pandas for less than on the link you have
     
  7. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    let me throw my 2 cents in:) I would be looking at e bay sellers who are selling lots of 2012 ,s at auction ,they have big inventories , Contact them thru e bay but deal off ebay ,i think you can pick up graded ms69 2012,s for around 45 or maybe even a little less if you are buying 100 i like graded for that money ,most guys will throw in NGC storage boxes , so they are nice to stack, and the coins have the best chance of staying in good condition in holders
     
  8. Reggie Perrin

    Reggie Perrin New Member

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    There's a lot of good info in this thread, thanks, it's helped me a lot in deciding what my purchasing strategy is for the rest of the year.

    Slightly off topic, but is there any news on whether the Chinese mints really did produce 8.000.000 1oz Pandas this year, or because of the slump in Silver price this year (relative to 2011) it's still felt there are going to be far less of them? [This Q also applies to Gold 2012 Pandas as well]

    cheers
     
  9. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Ryan, thanks for your questions.

    Unfortunately, despite my best efforts, the Shanghai Mint isn't interested in dealing with me. So I mostly have to go through dealers and collectors all over the world - which has its benefits.

    In regards to medals.... I haven't tried contact the mint directly yet... but that's a good idea :)

    As to value, if keeping bullion Pandas from 2007-2012, definitely try to get them in 30oz uncut sheets. This also helps to keep the Pandas in brand new condition.

    OMP is good (from 1989-2006), if you can get good quality Pandas, but this gets increasingly harder as more people get into Pandas, and as the years tick by.

    In regards to graded Pandas, I've intentionally not mentioned them in this article, so that I can focus on "Simple Panda Investing". However, personally, I think that graded Pandas are a good way to invest, and can make money in both the short and long term (especially through swaps and packaged deals). It does take a little bit more homework, but I think the risk/reward is worth it.

    I'm also a fan of the BIG3 strategy, but it's been months since I've had access to good quality ones.
     
  10. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks WorldBubble.

    Yeah, I like to run through a range of scenarios to see what may occur in the future. For instance, "even if" 2011 and 2012 turn out to be dud years, like in 1996, it should still give real physical growth rates. Thus far, even in the dud years, Panda bullion has grown significantly in value (in cash terms and real terms).

    In regards to Britannias, I don't have enough experience to comment on those. But they certainly are pretty.

    In regards to graded 2012 and 2011 Pandas... I've got mixed opinions on them...
    Pros: at $50, you are buying a Panda at near or below cost price. BARGAINs are very nice.
    Cons: at such a high buy in price, there be some opportunity costs. I.e. as the years tick on, and assuming the OMP 2011 and 2012s increase in value, it gets cheaper percentage wise to send in Pandas for grading.

    E.g. in 2012 to send a Panda for grading costs approx. $25. The Panda is worth about $45. Grading costs approx. 56%
    E.g. in 2017 to send a Panda for grading costs approx. $30 (adjustment made for inflation). The Panda is worth about $90. Grading costs approx. 33%.
    E.g. sending in a 2000 Mirrored Panda (approx. $1500) for grading today at $25. The grading costs only 1.7%.
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    jc888888888 is a Panda expert... $45 for a graded Panda is a BArGAIN! It's also very true, a graded Panda in a holder should preserve itself better through the years than an OMP Panda.
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks Reggie.

    I haven't heard any news regarding this years actualized mintage. It certainly feels like there isn't a huge volume of 2012 Pandas available.

    One thing that I find interesting, is that 2011s and 2012s have demonstrated a fairly high floor price around $40, even when spot was in the dumps. I think this is a good sign of things to come :)
     
  13. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    expert nooooooooooooooooooooo thanks Yennus but no expert:) i just think with the 2012 69,s going for around 60usd on e bay if a guy made enough offers for 100 at that 45.00 price he might get lucky. you have to be patient ,but also i think the rising spot silver price is working against you trying to find a bargain

    like this listing he is at 66 on ebay with best offer accepted ,off e bay who knows??
    160871046093

    here is a 2012 sheet sold for 37 each 290740147205 silvertown 10 coins ms69 for 51.00 good candidate to call:) 120954045010 you got to get lucky and keep throwing offers out there:)

    But at the end of the day Yennus points are well taken ,do you get the return spending the extra money for the holder?? when you could be buying 20% more metal with it?? tough question ,I guess only time will tell, a 2012 69 graded coin is pretty much all of them :) i think it is like a 60/40 mix on coins graded so far 60 % 69 and 40% 70,s, Reggie also makes a valid point invest in rarer coins? where grading fees become insignificant ............. if spot doubles does a 2000 mirror double?? I think not?? very interesting conversation my good friends Ryan and Yennus,
     
  14. silverbulldog

    silverbulldog New Member

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    i also like the idea of buying 2011's and 2012's but i just can't keep my eyes of the older date's. I feel the need to fill the spots in my collection...and if i really like a design i will buy extras of them.

    I am also partial to 2011's because my son was born in 2011 so i stack anything 2011.

    early 90's , Late 90's and 2000 year silver panda's here i come!
     

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