[QA] 2012 1oz Silver Panda Shortage

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Apr 7, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Recently someone asked: "I've noticed a few ppl asking for swaps for 2012 pandas for 2011. Is there a shortage of them? "

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    This is a really good question.

    Simply speaking, yes, there is a shortage of 2012s.

    But if you probe deeper into this question, it gets more interesting. A little bit like a Panda Puzzle.

    Yes, there is a current shortage of 2012s. While spot is lower than $35/oz, it seems that China isn't going to release any more of these silver bears. Which means that if spot doesn't move up about 15% before the end of the year, 2012s could be one of the rarer modern bears.

    Currently in the USA (APMEX), 2011s are valued at around $60USD, and 2012s at $45USD. Whereas in China, the reverse is more common. Happy is the person who can take advantage of this imbalance.

    If China releases more of these 2012s (either at a lower spot rate, or when/if spot goes up), then I think we can expect a quick re-evaluation of prices which favor the 2011s.

    Interesting Panda Days ahead. :)
     
  2. Reggie Perrin

    Reggie Perrin New Member

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    Thanks for the info, I just read an article that a low Silver price might result in a low mint figure for this years Panda, but it didn't explain why a low silver price would cause this.

    Just out of curiosity; do the Chinese ever [officially] remint coins? For example, like the Perth Mint seem/might/possibly be doing with the 1992 Kooks?

    I ask as I've ordered some NGC certified MS69 2012 Pandas, and was thinking of putting another order in for some MS70's, or filling my boots with uncertified coins (which do you think is the best strategy?)
     
  3. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think Panda Collector would be best suited to answer the remint question. I don't think they do.

    I think if given the choice between certified 2012s and OMP older Pandas at equivalent price, I would go for OMP older Pandas.

    E.g. If given a choice between a certified 2012 Panda and a 1996 Panda (the lowest priced pre-2000 bear) for the same price, I would certainly go for the 1996 since the mintage is only a fraction of the 2012. As time ticks on, I am sure that the 1996 bear would achieve better returns.

    This is assuming that more 2012s will be coming out this year, and they reach full mintage.
     
  4. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Some historical figures have had restrikes and some other Chinese series had a few minor restrikes too.

    None for pandas as far as I know and none for anything since 2000+.
     
  5. au_ag_miner

    au_ag_miner Member

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    Whether there's a genuine shortage, I'm not sure. There were rumours about shortages for 2011 and prices went as high as S$70-80 at the Singapore Coin Fair last year. This year, 2012 goes for $65-80. And for S$65, nobody wants the 2011 pandas. There are also comments that China Mint had bought silver at high for minting of the 2012 pandas, hence the premium they released to dealers are higher than last year. Only the dealers would know the truth how much they got from China Mint or GCC. In short term, there's bound to be shortages because every collector wants a piece first (same a ipad and iphone) but as long as spot price remains range bound, 2012 panda prices would fall in line ...
     
  6. silverfever

    silverfever New Member

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    I just picked up a 2012 MS69 panda on ebay for $55.10.
     
  7. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Nice! :) When you factor in the price of the grading (PCGS or NGC), that coin was probably sold near spot! :)
     
  8. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Yes. I think the same than yennus. 1996 in omp for 70/90 uss or graded for 120/130
    Or 2009 more mintage than 1996 but for 70/90 graded is a good price or 60/70 capsule

    Is better than 2012 ms69 for 70
    But i take a few 2012 to my collection.
     
  9. silverfever

    silverfever New Member

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    I just bought Six MS69 2012 Pandas for USD$350 shipped to Canada. Is this a good price? Just wondering. Too late since I have already paid.
     
  10. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Silverfever, yep, that's a pretty good price. About $58.30USD/each. Minus the cost of grading, about $25USD/each, and that means you picked up your bears at a good price ($33.33USD) :)
     
  11. silverfever

    silverfever New Member

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    Thanks yennus. I won each coin one by one and the ebayer was kind enough to combine shipping for only $12.95 for the 6 slabs.
     
  12. SantozSilver

    SantozSilver New Member

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    wow.. if i not miss calculate. you got 1oz panda under the spot according to today price. nice
     
  13. shibaji

    shibaji New Member

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    If anyone is adventurous enough, MCM is selling boxes of 20 MS69 2012 pandas for usd 1010 (i.e., 50.50 each). :) - not my cup of tea.
     
  14. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Here's some statistics I pulled from recent 2012 Silver Panda sales (not incl. shipping & prices in USD):

    [ 2012 1oz Silver NGC MS69 (Last 7 days) ]

    Average Price: $56.96
    Highest Price: $70
    Lowest Price: $49.69
    Total Sales in Dollars: $4500.17
    Number of Sales: 79
    Standard Deviation: $3.5292287265194
    Median Price: $52.04


    [ 2012 1oz Silver PCGS MS69 (Last 7 days) ]

    Average Price: $59.09
    Highest Price: $76
    Lowest Price: $54.9
    Total Sales in Dollars: $3545.45
    Number of Sales: 60
    Standard Deviation: $4.1071930666826
    Median Price: $67.555

    [ 2012 1oz Silver NGC MS70 (Last 7 days) ]

    Average Price: $94.4
    Highest Price: $110.69
    Lowest Price: $86.01
    Total Sales in Dollars: $11328.42
    Number of Sales: 120
    Standard Deviation: $4.5236474184431
    Median Price: $93.835


    [ 2012 1oz Silver PCGS MS70 (Last 7 days) ]

    Average Price: $96.13
    Highest Price: $149
    Lowest Price: $89.88
    Total Sales in Dollars: $5959.93
    Number of Sales: 62
    Standard Deviation: $9.572632804519
    Median Price: $105.25
     
  15. rbaggio

    rbaggio Active Member Silver Stacker

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    PCGS graded pandas going for more than the NGC ones .... is this normal??
     
  16. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    From what I can see there are more NGCs for sale (volume 3x) than PCGS for MS70 & 69s 2012 S10Y over the past 2-3 weeks.

    I think for this case it is simply a supply versus demand thing.

    NGC usually dominates in non-US sales and PCGS usually dominates in US sales for Pandas (generalizations/assumptions etc etc).
     
  17. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Top work on the numbers Fish! :)
    Thanks!
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [QA] 2012 1oz Silver Panda Shortage

    is it possible for Pandas Coins to be re-minted again when there is a shortage ?
     
  19. Justfishin

    Justfishin New Member

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    From what I've heard-they are minted, just not letting any go
     
  20. silverfever

    silverfever New Member

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    Shipping should b e included to get a better idea because i for one take shipping to account when bidding on ebay.
     

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